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July 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes August 9th

M

maxcriden

Member
It's Minecraft Wii U in the top 6 that shocks me more than Pokémon. Get that on the NX and you've got yourself a ballgame.
 
S

Sterok

Member
The biggest missed opportunity is Minecraft not making it to the 3DS. If they could've worked that out Minecraft would've been even more unstoppable. Hopefully the NX version works out.

August is going to be fun with XB1 S, No Man's Sky, and $150 New 3DS. All three systems have something nice going on.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Using:

1. 3DS - 185K
2. XB1 - 171.1K
3. PS4 - 161.2K
4. WIU - 24.9K


NeoGAF Prediction Results - July 2016

Units

1. Vena - 27,200
2. Ryng_tolu - 40,800
3. Bruno MB - 47,800
4. Javin98 - 58,000
5. ConfusedGamer - 60,000
5. MANUELF - 60,000
7. Chobel - 61,200
8. Welfare - 66,200
9. KillerMan91 - 68,800
10. Shizza - 69,200
11. theprodigy - 70,000
12. Rand6 - 72,800
13. allan-bh - 74,200
14. Ombala - 74,800
15. GifGafIsTheBestGaf - 75,800
16. RexNovis - 78,200
17. skedar897 - 82,200
18. donny2112 - 83,800
19. Fdkn - 86,800
20. Tubie - 90,000
21. Asd202 - 92,400
22. Raylan - 96,800
23. noobie - 97,400
24. pitseleh - 98,000
25. Sterok - 99,800
26. Prototype Viktor - 101,800
27. Cow Goes Moo - 102,200
27. DriftingSpirit - 102,200
29. archnemesis - 102,800
30. GAF_Agg - 106,800
31. Cornbread78 - 107,800
32. slavesnyder - 108,200
33. travisbickle - 108,800
34. Nouzka - 110,000
35. AmaterasuOni - 111,800
36. jroc74 - 112,400
37. Primethius - 112,800
38. wachie - 113,800
39. ZachzOOming - 114,400
40. jjonez18 - 115,000
40. mejin - 115,000
42. Crimson_Gold - 115,800
43. Pachter - 117,000
44. Kill3r7 - 117,800
45. Trust me, I'm a PhD - 126,800
46. Bioshocker - 128,000
47. Rymuth - 133,000
48. andy_lhc - 135,000
49. robo - 143,800
50. Sangetsu-II - 147,800
50. orfax - 147,800
52. Elandyll - 149,800
53. astrogamer - 150,800
54. Ol┐nner - 151,000
55. sirronoh - 151,800
56. BokehKing - 162,000
57. Opt1kon_ - 171,000
58. Darth Smurf X - 175,000
59. CorporateClown - 178,800
60. Megadragon15 - 185,000
61. anothertech - 203,800
62. harrisk954 - 204,800
63. Hydrargyrus - 205,000
64. shandy706 - 223,800
65. Conduit - 230,000
66. DarkNorm - 245,000
66. Stanng243 - 245,000


Points
Code: 
     July 2016                       Overall 2016 Top (6/7)
01.  Vena                   112.93   donny2112                604.35
02.  Ryng_tolu              105.41   jayu26                   600.23
03.  Bruno MB               103.02   Javin98                  597.80
04.  Javin98                 99.16   KillerMan91              595.90
05.  MANUELF                 95.79   Chobel                   595.82
06.  ConfusedGamer           95.34   Fat4all                  595.14
07.  Chobel                  93.37   archnemesis              592.75
08.  Welfare                 91.23   Cow Goes Moo             589.20
09.  KillerMan91             90.15   Ryng_tolu                587.89
10.  Shizza                  88.53   allan-bh                 587.01
11.  theprodigy              87.64   gtj1092                  581.65
12.  allan-bh                86.85   Bruno MB                 580.49
13.  Ombala                  86.69   ConfusedGamer            580.44
14.  Rand6                   86.61   orfax                    580.44
15.  GifGafIsTheBestGaf      86.34   Raylan                   580.13
16.  RexNovis                85.86   Welfare                  574.71  *RexNovis                 577.82
17.  skedar897               84.92   pitseleh                 574.16
18.  donny2112               84.72   slavesnyder              573.73
19.  Fdkn                    84.23   RexNovis                 572.67
20.  Tubie                   83.14   travisbickle             572.12
21.  Asd202                  83.12   DriftingSpirit           571.49
22.  Raylan                  82.59   Tubie                    569.59
23.  Cow Goes Moo            82.13   noobie                   568.92
24.  Sterok                  81.97   GifGafIsTheBestGaf       568.38
25.  noobie                  81.92   Nouzka                   567.11
26.  pitseleh                81.91   Rand6                    567.04
27.  DriftingSpirit          81.85   jjonez18                 563.28
28.  slavesnyder             81.45   Shizza                   560.89
29.  archnemesis             81.40   Kayant                   559.97
30.  Prototype Viktor        81.33   mejin                    558.11
31.  Primethius              80.77   BlackBuzzard             558.10
32.  Cornbread78             80.41   skedar897                557.11
33.  travisbickle            79.99   Sterok                   557.01
34.  Nouzka                  79.73   wachie                   556.59
35.  wachie                  79.68   Rymuth                   556.31
36.  ZachzOOming             79.47   ZachzOOming              553.34
37.  jroc74                  79.45   Asd202                   553.22
38.  Kill3r7                 78.59   Darth Smurf X            550.48
39.  mejin                   78.57   Elandyll                 549.49
40.  AmaterasuOni            78.47   AmaterasuOni             548.94
41.  Crimson_Gold            78.35   Ombala                   548.87
42.  jjonez18                78.22   Fdkn                     547.18
43.  Pachter                 78.13   andy_lhc                 546.34
44.  Rymuth                  76.57   jbluzb                   543.16
45.  Trust me, I'm a PhD     75.84   jroc74                   542.03
46.  Bioshocker              75.71   Kill3r7                  541.82
47.  andy_lhc                75.03   robo                     539.34
48.  robo                    73.84   Toli08                   538.48
49.  Ol┐nner                 73.16   Trust me, I'm a PhD      536.30
50.  Sangetsu-II             73.13   Crimson_Gold             535.89

Congratulations, Vena! :D
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Was so close with first place lol

Vena, you must die, hope with an atrocius and terrible death. :p

Seriusly though, congrats buddy. :D


TOP 10 of the year overall, whoho!
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
3DS July sales

Code: 
2011 - 89,000
2012 - 131,000
2013 - 150,000
2014 - 108,000
2015 - 104,000
2016 - 182,000

2014 VS 2016, first 7 months

2014 - 872,000
2016 - 882,000

2014 ended with 2.57 million... i think 2016 can surpass it unless NX annunce crush 3DS sales.
 
P

Primethius

Banned
Given the data we have on some of the other SW titles, I'm assuming that MH is the #1 when compared to other titles without bundles, correct?
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Primethius said:
Given the data we have on some of the other SW titles, I'm assuming that MH is the #1 when compared to other titles without bundles, correct?
Click to expand...

Yeah the software charts don't include bundles. You have to go into the hardware for bundled sales.
 
S

Shizza

Member
Primethius said:
Given the data we have on some of the other SW titles, I'm assuming that MH is the #1 when compared to other titles without bundles, correct?
Click to expand...

For single SKU it is.

For combined SKUs, we have the following numbers from Aqua:
Minecraft >175k
GTAV 172k
 
G

GifGafIsTheBestGaf

Member
amazon has a lot of bundles right now, maybe SFV can have a chance!

$349

51gLbA7fW5L.jpg
 
J

Javin98

Banned
Damn, another great month for me! Fourth place! And I'm in the top three for 2016 overall! Really hope I can keep it up or at least remain in the top five.

Congrats, Vena!
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
lol, for an intere week 3DS was sold out on Amazon, then it back on stock and after one day was already sold out again....

What's funny is that this is only amazon.
 
J

Jon Carter

Member
I really hope Nintendo's mobile strategy will work. If they can use mobile as a successful advertisement platform for their core business, the same way Pokemon Go is working for now, I'm gonna be really impressed.

Well deserved. The 3DS truly is a great system and it deserves to sell better outside Japan.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Public NPD release should be at 6:30 p.m. EDT today. This is also in the OP, for reference. There have already been two threads on the sales, so far, though. One for XB1 beating PS4. Another for 3DS beating all. Just neither was the official NPD PR version.
 
O

Obliterator

Member
Man Overwatch is holding amazingly. Also if you notice Destiny has been popping up on the charts since digital has been added. It being a big online title it's not too surprising but it seems the game has had a very long tail digitally
 
D

donny2112

Member
Ryng_tolu said:
Hey Donny, 3DS is 182K

If you are not boring, you can update the predictions with 3DS at 182k and not 185k?
Click to expand...

1) It's still an estimated value, so would still convert it to a 5K multiple. (e.g. 180K)
2) It's not exceptionally different than the used value.
3) There have been much farther off results used in predictions before (like 10K difference with no ordering changes), because that was the information we had, at the time, and we agreed to use it.

Not going to say that I'll never change the results if better data comes in, but this month is good. :) Thanks!
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
donny2112 said:
1) It's still an estimated value, so would still convert it to a 5K multiple. (e.g. 180K)
2) It's not exceptionally different than the used value.
3) There have been much farther off results used in predictions before (like 10K difference with no ordering changes), because that was the information we had, at the time, and we agreed to use it.

Not going to say that I'll never change the results if better data comes in, but this month is good. :) Thanks!
Click to expand...

Ok was just asking :p
 
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