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July 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes August 9th

R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Black Ops III over 11 million lifetime!

vV2EmE5.gif
 
M

Mory Dunz

Member
CosmicQueso said:
It's good for old catalog games to all of a sudden show up in the top 3 on a platform for a month.
Click to expand...

So were you talking ranking or units when you said pokemons were close to MH?
Where does pokemon usually rank though? Personally, If there are no big releases I would expect pokemon to be top 5-7 for 3DS in any given month.
 
S

sense

Member
i feel like people might be surprised by no man's sky sales. the game has close to 12000 ratings on psn already which is pretty huge fo a game which has a perception of an indie game sold at 59.99. i personally am surprised already but we shall see how it turns out

Ryng_tolu said:
Black Ops III over 11 million lifetime!

vV2EmE5.gif
Click to expand...

Playstation partnership and default bundle is a success from the looks of it.
 
J

Jon Carter

Member
Bruno MB said:
Code: 
[Sep, 2004] PS2 Monster Hunter (Capcom) < 20,000
[May, 2006] PSP Monster Hunter Freedom (Capcom) < 20,000
[Aug, 2007] PSP Monster Hunter Freedom 2 (Capcom) - I don't have data for this title.
[Jun, 2009] PSP Monster Hunter Freedom Unite (Capcom) - 68,768
[Apr, 2010] WIU Monster Hunter 3 Tri (Capcom) - 126,000
[Mar, 2013] 3DS + WIU Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate (Capcom) < 130,000
[Feb, 2015] 3DS Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate (Capcom) < 195,000 (290,000 including digital sales)
[Jul, 2016] 3DS Monster Hunter Generations (Capcom) > 165,000
Click to expand...

That's pretty damn good for Generations, at least at retail. Higher than I expected considering 4U launched with new hardware and was a new generation. Curious about digital sales now.
 
A

allan-bh

Member
sense said:
i feel like people might be surprised by no man's sky sales. the game has close to 12000 ratings on psn already which is pretty huge fo a game which has a perception of an indie game sold at 59.99. i personally am surprised already but we shall see how it turns out
Click to expand...

Review scores aren't encouraging. Maybe first month will be a surprise, but I don't expect legs.
 
S

sense

Member
gundamkyoukai said:
SFV will come back as a zombie with the PS+ or F2P version lol
I not even sure if something like that can help Battleborn.
Click to expand...

the artstyle and their brand of humor just doesn't seem appealing. i am still shocked borderlands was a huge success.

Welfare said:
More like just being bundled as the standard PS4 bundle. Same thing would be happening if MS only had a BO3 bundle.
Click to expand...

but Playstation has been more popular and sold more consoles this gen :)
 
A

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
Very happy about MHG because it clearly signs another positive achievement for the series in the west and this bodes well for other localizations

Very strong performance for the 3ds and ORAS, and people said me that GO wouldn't have any impact on nintendo usual products ...
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mory Dunz said:
Wait why did MH4U do like 100k digital?

Kirby no legs.

How in the world is GTAV up YOY, sheesh.
Click to expand...

MH4U had both a Gamestop-exclusive bundle and digital sales, those are not tracked by NPD (I mean, in the normal top 10 chart).
 
ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
Abdiel said:
My bad. I'm at work, on my phone, I missed the question. I just saw it.

Currently, we have more orders for gts. Not a ton, yet, but growing at a gradual pace. Gt does a lot of its numbers overseas though, so I'll be interested to see how it goes.

Definitely more than forza, though.
Click to expand...
Well there is no doubt about GTS doing numbers way bigger than Forza even more after the last entry selling so bad.
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
A look of how insane is this: (yes i know bundle helped but still)

Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare in 2015 (January to December): under 2.36 million (MKX numbers)

Call of Duty: Black Ops III in 2016 (January to July): 2.81 million (Aqua posted all monthly numbers)

I mean, DAMN, not only first year sales were higher, but now it's showing waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay longer legs, and of course bigger digital sales.
 
S

sense

Member
allan-bh said:
Review scores aren't encouraging. Maybe first month will be a surprise, but I don't expect legs.
Click to expand...

is this a game that needs to have legs to be called successful? i mean i doubt the game with such a small team that is also on PC cost that much for Sony compared to games like until dawn, ratchet or order 1886 which were exclusive to boot. I would think it would be a huge success for Hello games if it sells more than a million worldwide in the first month.
 
I

Immaculate

Banned
Bruno MB said:
Code: 
[Sep, 2004] PS2 Monster Hunter (Capcom) < 20,000
[May, 2006] PSP Monster Hunter Freedom (Capcom) < 20,000
[Aug, 2007] PSP Monster Hunter Freedom 2 (Capcom) - I don't have data for this title.
[Jun, 2009] PSP Monster Hunter Freedom Unite (Capcom) - 68,768
[Apr, 2010] WIU Monster Hunter 3 Tri (Capcom) - 126,000
[Mar, 2013] 3DS + WIU Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate (Capcom) < 130,000
[Feb, 2015] 3DS Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate (Capcom) < 195,000 (290,000 including digital sales)
[Jul, 2016] 3DS Monster Hunter Generations (Capcom) > 165,000
Click to expand...

glad it did well this was the one main thing I was curious about for this months sales
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Abdiel, can you say anything on how much stock the regular Xbox One has? Have you been able to sell a lot of what you have or are there still a lot to be sold?
 
A

Aaronrules380

Member
Ryng_tolu said:
MH4U first month was < 195k at retail, but it sold 290k including digital.

I mean 165K at retail for MH4G is very solid actually.

Also, cosmic said ORAS was close to Monster Hunter, this mean ORAS did incredible this month...
Click to expand...
Pokemon Go has definitely had a positive impact on the main series, as intended
 
K

Kill3r7

Member
Ryng_tolu said:
I can see 100 million lifetime. If is still selling those numbers now, i can see this happen.
Click to expand...

It could definitely happen, tall task for any game to hit 100 million lifetime. However GTA V has done phenomenal when you consider that for the most part it has never dipped in price below $30 for PS4/X1. You can imagine how well it will do when it hits the $5-$10 range.
 
A

Abdiel

Member
Welfare said:
Abdiel, can you say anything on how much stock the regular Xbox One has? Have you been able to sell a lot of what you have or are there still a lot to be sold?
Click to expand...

They still have stock in warehouses and distribution centers, so it's really more a matter of... Are they still making more to send more of them? The specific bundles like the qb bundles and tomb raider bundles were meant to go away quickly, but stock lingers.

I'm wondering if they're trying to shift to completely replace the old models and make them disappear, but how they do that without massive losses is beyond me. They just keep writing down further discounts.

Because the burst of people buying the one s isn't selling out the stock of the higher model. It's not a premium that's seeming to broadcast well yet, and I'm kind of curious on their game plan with the other two models later. What kind of stock they'll be sending.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Abdiel said:
They still have stock in warehouses and distribution centers, so it's really more a matter of... Are they still making more to send more of them? The specific bundles like the qb bundles and tomb raider bundles were meant to go away quickly, but stock lingers.

I'm wondering if they're trying to shift to completely replace the old models and make them disappear, but how they do that without massive losses is beyond me. They just keep writing down further discounts.

Because the burst of people buying the one s isn't selling out the stock of the higher model. It's not a premium that's seeming to broadcast well yet, and I'm kind of curious on their game plan with the other two models later. What kind of stock they'll be sending.
Click to expand...

Thank you, all of that was interesting. I guess MS is just going to keep the current models at their current price and those will be the deal fodders leading into the holidays while the more expensive S models have a higher margin of profit.

By the end of the year is when MS probably expects all the fat models to be out of retailers hands.
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
Could we see original Xbox One models go for $199 (or less) for a huge Christmas push and to completely phase them out for the S and (eventually) Scorpio?

I have a feeling that the Holiday deals are going to be insane based on what we are seeing now.
 
M

MANUELF

Banned
Welfare said:
Even more data was just posted thanks to Aquamarine! Software sales and even bundles.

From Aquamarine at VG Chartz / Gamrconnect

"Some observations I made when looking at July 2016 physical sales:

Console/handheld software sales were only $156 million, down -13% YOY. In general, those are really weak physical software sales, lowest since the turn of the century.
Although:
PS4 software was down -3% YOY (-46% MOM)
WIU sofware was down +0% YOY (-33% MOM)
XBO software was down -3% YOY (-42% MOM)

So even though the industry was down -13% YOY (-35% MOM), 8th-gen console hardware largely held steady.

Best-sellers of July 2016:
Call of Duty: Black Ops III was the number-one best physical seller in July 2016 with 194K (including bundle units) and 64K (excluding bundle units)
Minecraft: >175K, top of the physical non-bundle charts
Grand Theft Auto V: 172K, actually up YOY (GTA July 2015: 171K)
Monster Hunter Generations: >165K
Pokemon Ruby + Sapphire (right behind Monster Hunter according to CosmicQueso on NeoGAF)
LEGO Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Overwatch: 135K
NBA 2K16: 111K


Titles that collapsed in their second month of sale (all below 50K):
1) Mirror's Edge Catalyst (Collapsed at retail from 99K in June to to below 40K in July, high digital shares contribute to its physical decline)
2) Tokyo Mirage Sessions #FE (significantly below 35K, I thought it would have legs because it launched late in the month but...nope, it's DOA)
3) Kirby: Planet Robobot (Legs were a LOT weaker than expected, and other 3DS catalog outside of Pokemon was also weak).

Sorry guys, DOOM 2016 declined significantly from June. MLB 16 The Show is still holding steady at >60K.



Bundle sales:
PS4:
1) Call of Duty: Black Ops III: ~130K
2) Uncharted 4: A Thief's End: Just below 30,000
= PS4 total: 161K

Xbox One:
1) Choose Your Game
2) Tom Clancy's The Division
Gears of War: Ultimate Edition: 36,000"
Click to expand...
Too bad NPD counts the pokemon versions as different games, they wont be on the official top 10
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Bgamer90 said:
Could we see original Xbox One models go for $199 (or less) for a huge Christmas push and to completely phase them out for the S and (eventually) Scorpio?

I have a feeling that the Holiday deals are going to be insane based on what we are seeing now.
Click to expand...

I can see the S models just getting a $50 price cut for Black Friday and Christmas while the fat models get more games bundled with gift cards. I don't see MS making a bundle $199 this early.
 
Xenoflare

Xenoflare

Member
Is it way too early to gauge the sales for One S?

Probably yeah but anecdotal evidence is that the MS store where I picked mine up on release day was pretty chill and I think I was the only one in the room
 
D

donny2112

Member
While waiting for Nintendo to realize they won the month with 3DS and put out a PR with HW sales and MH digital, just thinking that I miss Dragona. Aenea is great, and I love reading when she posts. I do miss Dragona's commentary, too, though. I think she was part of the Planet GameCube group that kickstarted (before kickstarter) an E3 2002 DVD with Adam Prime producing. She was always the one taking the picture, as she was notorious for not wanting to have photos taken of her. Oh, well. Hope she's doing well wherever she is.

/Friday night post-NPD random thoughts
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
jjonez18 said:
I have no clue, but this reminded me that NFL is right around the corner. Bound to be plenty of ads for the S when the season starts in late August.
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The 1TB S Madden bundle will be advertised like crazy this NFL season. Should give it great exposure.
 
E

Elandyll

Banned
Abdiel said:
My bad. I'm at work, on my phone, I missed the question. I just saw it.

Currently, we have more orders for gts. Not a ton, yet, but growing at a gradual pace. Gt does a lot of its numbers overseas though, so I'll be interested to see how it goes.

Definitely more than forza, though.
Click to expand...
Was only teasing, I bet you are quite busy, specially on a Friday!

I was mostly surprised I guess at the differential in pre orders talked about, from 50/60+ units for various games, and ... 3 for Forza.
Even knowing the Racing genra is not at home in the US, it seems downright insanely low.

Thanks for the answer! :)
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Primethius said:
From the Aqua post, am I correct in understanding that UC4 did 160k combined?

Seems like a good hold from June.
Click to expand...

This part?

Bundle sales:
PS4:
1) Call of Duty: Black Ops III: ~130K
2) Uncharted 4: A Thief's End: Just below 30,000
= PS4 total: 161K

That's the PS4 console total. So out of 161,200 consoles, ~130k CoD bundles and just below 30k UC4 bundles. Probably something like 29k UC4 and 132k CoD bundles.
 
P

Primethius

Banned
Welfare said:
This part?

Bundle sales:
PS4:
1) Call of Duty: Black Ops III: ~130K
2) Uncharted 4: A Thief's End: Just below 30,000
= PS4 total: 161K

That's the PS4 console total. So out of 161,200 consoles, ~130k CoD bundles and just below 30k UC4 bundles. Probably something like 29k UC4 and 132k CoD bundles.
Click to expand...

Yo, I'm stupid... lol.

Thanks!
 
P

Primethius

Banned
sense said:
is this a game that needs to have legs to be called successful? i mean i doubt the game with such a small team that is also on PC cost that much for Sony compared to games like until dawn, ratchet or order 1886 which were exclusive to boot. I would think it would be a huge success for Hello games if it sells more than a million worldwide in the first month.
Click to expand...

Agreed. If it has strong front loaded sales, it doesn't really need strong legs or even good ones.
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
Welfare said:
I can see the S models just getting a $50 price cut for Black Friday and Christmas while the fat models get more games bundled with gift cards. I don't see MS making a bundle $199 this early.
Click to expand...

I guess we will see but I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we see some $199 Original Xbox One deals to try and completely get rid of them by early 2017. I could definitely see the500 GB Xbox One S at $249 during late November/December.
 
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