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July 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes August 9th

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slavesnyder

Member
Bgamer90 said:
I guess we will see but I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we see some $199 Original Xbox One deals to try and completely get rid of them by early 2017. I could definitely see the500 GB Xbox One S at $249 during late November/December.
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I guess the S was also developed to end this discount rallye. Xbox One is in a downward spiral of discounts and the S appeared as a reset.
So when we are discussing the S getting there where the original is now in such a short time, this does not seem healthy.

I guess I asked that before but unfortunately got no opinions:
What do you think:
Is the XboxS overall cheaper to produce than the original one?
 
T

ThoughtsOfSpeaking

Banned
Bgamer90 said:
I guess we will see but I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we see some $199 Original Xbox One deals to try and completely get rid of them by early 2017. I could definitely see the500 GB Xbox One S at $249 during late November/December.
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That runs counter to every slim release every previous generation.

A slim usually is introduced at a mass market price and stays that way for a reasonably long time. If the One S has to do the same drastic discounting the OG XBO has had to do last Hoildays, something isn't right.

Eventually I expect the 500gb to be phashed out and the 2tb becoming the standard SKU though.
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
slavesnyder said:
I guess the S was also developed to end this discount rallye. Xbox One is in a downward spiral of discounts and the S appeared as a reset.
So when we are discussing the S getting there where the original is now in such a short time, this does not seem healthy.
Click to expand...

I'm not talking about a permanent price drop. Simply referring to the normal Black Friday/Holiday season sale.

I guess I asked that before but unfortunately got no opinions:
What do you think:
Is the XboxS overall cheaper to produce than the original one?
Click to expand...

I would think so. I haven't seen an S in person but it doesn't seem as high in build quality as the original Xbox One.

_______________________________________________________


ThoughtsOfSpeaking said:
That runs counter to every slim release every previous generation.

A slim usually is introduced at a mass market price and stays that way for a reasonably long time. If the One S has to do the same drastic discounting the OG XBO has had to do last Hoildays, something isn't right.
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I don't see how a $50 off sale during the Holiday season is that drastic. Sony did it with the PS4 and it's definitely not as drastic as what we are seeing with original Xbox One model bundles with multiple free recently released games. Previous generations didn't have so many bundles with free games so this generation as a whole has already went against what was considered the norm in previous gens in my opinion.
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Waiting for the August thread, i may as well post the Amazon August chart here:

#9 / XBO S: 2TB
#13 / N3DS XL black
#21 / PS4: COD BO III bundle
#28 / N3DS XL Red
#46 / PS4
#91 / PSVita
#95 / XBO: holidays bundle
#99 / PS4: Uncharted 4 bundle
 
Xenoflare

Xenoflare

Member
Bgamer90 said:
I would think so. I haven't seen an S in person but it doesn't seem as high in build quality as the original Xbox One.
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The manufacturing cost of the one s is $324 US for the 2TB, the Day 1 Xbox one is $396 without Kinect, but of course these are both estimates, I got the $396 from taking $75 from the manufacturing price of $471 with Kinect

And yes you haven't seen it in person, the build quality of the one S is pretty solid, it's small but also extremely dense in weight
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
Xenoflare said:
The manufacturing cost of the one s is $324 US for the 2TB, the Day 1 Xbox one is $396 without Kinect, but of course these are both estimates, I got the $396 from taking $75 from the manufacturing price of $471 with Kinect

And yes you haven't seen it in person, the build quality of the one S is pretty solid, it's small but also extremely dense in weight
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Interesting, thanks.
 
T

ThoughtsOfSpeaking

Banned
Bgamer90 said:
I don't see how a $50 off sale during the Holiday season is that drastic. Sony did it with the PS4 and it's definitely not as drastic as what we are seeing with original Xbox One model bundles with multiple free recently released games. Previous generations didn't have so many bundles with free games so this generation as a whole has already went against what was considered the norm in previous gens in my opinion.
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$50 off in its second Hoilday.

The multiple discounts of the OG model is exactly why I don't think this approach will be taken with the slim. At some point you have to start recouping some costs.

I do think there will be soft discounts, like gift cards, XBL credit and free games but actual discounts on the console will be thin on the ground, especially as it's going up against a PSneo that's going to be $399 at minimum.

Not to mention that there will still be plenty of OG models lurking around for people who just want a bargain.
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
ThoughtsOfSpeaking said:
Not to mention that there will still be plenty of OG models lurking around for people who just want a bargain.
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This could be a real problem. There could be a lot unsold.
For the same price noone will buy it and drastically cheap will hold people off from buying the new one.
Also, I would love to know if they estimated the low sales in non-US/UK. There might be masses in warehouses.
What would be the best way to face this problem? (the hole where they dug out the ET-games in the deset is no solution).
 
D

donny2112

Member
Maybe Nintendo wants to trumpet physical+digital MHG sales, so they're waiting for the physical+digital report to correctly position MHG sales for the month. Then they can brag on 3DS HW sales with Pokemon game increases, at the same time. Omega Ruby entered the Top 20 on the 3DS All-Time download chart, so there's definitely some uptick in 3DS Pokemon game sales. Went from outside of the Top 20 to #19 in a week. That may not be a big deal (19-21 may be really close in units), but it's unexpected for an old game to jump at least 2 rankings in a week this late in the system's life without some kind of accompanying sale.
 
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Sterok

Member
donny2112 said:
Maybe Nintendo wants to trumpet physical+digital MHG sales, so they're waiting for the physical+digital report to correctly position MHG sales for the month. Then they can brag on 3DS HW sales with Pokemon game increases, at the same time. Omega Ruby entered the Top 20 on the 3DS All-Time download chart, so there's definitely some uptick in 3DS Pokemon game sales. Went from outside of the Top 20 to #19 in a week. That may not be a big deal (19-21 may be really close in units), but it's unexpected for an old game to jump at least 2 rankings in a week this late in the system's life without some kind of accompanying sale.
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I don't think NPD reports on eshop sales at all. Just PSN, XBL, and Steam. I'm still of the opinion that Nintendo PR fainted at having good news for once.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Sterok said:
I don't think NPD reports on eshop sales at all. Just PSN, XBL, and Steam.
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Correct. Only Nintendo will know how much MHG sold physical+digital, but when the report comes out, they'll know how that fits into the overall physical+digital market.
 
C

cheesekao

Member
Sterok said:
I don't think NPD reports on eshop sales at all. Just PSN, XBL, and Steam. I'm still of the opinion that Nintendo PR fainted at having good news for once.
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That's not quite right. Last I read, NPD requests digital software data from the publishers themselves and some have refused to give them numbers like Sony and Bethesda. They don't have direct access to PSN/XBL numbers.
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Sterok said:
I don't think NPD reports on eshop sales at all. Just PSN, XBL, and Steam. I'm still of the opinion that Nintendo PR fainted at having good news for once.
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you are way wrong here. They don't track not even one of them. They only know digital sales from some third party as Ubisoft, EA, ActiVision ecc.
 
P

Primethius

Banned
What are people thinking NMS is going to open at in the NPD given the UK numbers we have?

I'm thinking personally it's going to land in the 600-700k range. I'd be shocked with less then 500k.
 
W

watdaeff4

Member
Primethius said:
Only the Steam numbers, which are currently above 700k.

Japan charts should be out later today but I don't think the game has actually released there, but I'm not sure.
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Oh wow nice.

I've still only played a couple of hours so can't comment much but would be nice if the sales were strong. For NPD I wonder due to it being a game that the 'Murica audience tends to overlook if the sales will match your expectations.

I've been really busy and traveling the last few weeks, does anyone in the US comment if there was a big marketing push?

I'm just trying to frame your guess of at least 500K against UC4 which undersells in USA compared to Europe and RoTW and it had a big marketing campaign in the States

Ratchet and Clank also didn't do that well did it? It had a huge marketing as well as $40. And these two (UC and ratchet) are known IPs
 
P

Primethius

Banned
watdaeff4 said:
Oh wow nice.

I've still only played a couple of hours so can't comment much but would be nice if the sales were strong. For NPD I wonder due to it being a game that the 'Murica audience tends to overlook if the sales will match your expectations.

I've been really busy and traveling the last few weeks, does anyone in the US comment if there was a big marketing push?

I'm just trying to frame your guess of at least 500K against UC4 which undersells in USA compared to Europe and RoTW and it had a big marketing campaign in the States

Ratchet and Clank also didn't do that well did it? It had a huge marketing as well as $40. And these two (UC and ratchet) are known IPs
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Ratchet did pretty well and had good second month drop off. It charted at #2 in the NPD (behind Dark Souls III) and was the highest debut for the entire series in NA.

My reasoning for the 500k at least but 600-700k most likely is based off a couple of assumptions:

- It has slightly worse legs then other standard AAA titles but not by a lot (I know it's not a typical AAA title)
- That the UK sales translate to US sales as they do in most other titles

I actually haven't looked how it was marketed in the states, my guess was based largely on other titles in the UK that opened to >100k or about and how they did in the US. Unfortunately, there was a lot of variation in my data due to the release timing of certain titles (a game in November vs a game in August) and of course a host of other factors (new IP, different from established genres of games that sell).
 
W

watdaeff4

Member
Primethius said:
Ratchet did pretty well and had good second month drop off. It charted at #2 in the NPD (behind Dark Souls III) and was the highest debut for the entire series in NA.

My reasoning for the 500k at least but 600-700k most likely is based off a couple of assumptions:

- It has slightly worse legs then other standard AAA titles but not by a lot (I know it's not a typical AAA title)
- That the UK sales translate to US sales as they do in most other titles

I actually haven't looked how it was marketed in the states, my guess was based largely on other titles in the UK that opened to >100k or about and how they did in the US. Unfortunately, there was a lot of variation in my data due to the release timing of certain titles (a game in November vs a game in August) and of course a host of other factors (new IP, different from established genres of games that sell).
Click to expand...

I know Ratchet was #2 but the sales were about ~250k weren't they? Hope you're correct that way we see games like this more but we will see. I can see 500k but would be (nicely) surprised if it does 700.
 
P

Primethius

Banned
watdaeff4 said:
I know Ratchet was #2 but the sales were about ~250k weren't they? Hope you're correct that way we see games like this more but we will see. I can see 500k but would be (nicely) surprised if it does 700.
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I'm not sure if we ever got an exact value for R&C, I just know that it was the highest selling in the series (so >207.5k). I suppose depending on your barometer, it could be a success or a failure.

I think, given that it's the best selling in the series, it was a success.
 
W

watdaeff4

Member
Primethius said:
I'm not sure if we ever got an exact value for R&C, I just know that it was the highest selling in the series (so >207.5k). I suppose depending on your barometer, it could be a success or a failure.

I think, given that it's the best selling in the series, it was a success.
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Just for clarification, I'm not saying RandC was a success or failure, that goes beyond raw NPD numbers sold. Just like showing in the top 10 of NPD esp in a slow month needs to be taken in context

Just gauging it vs a prediction of NMS debut month in terms of numbers sold
 
P

Primethius

Banned
watdaeff4 said:
Just for clarification, I'm not saying RandC was a success or failure, that goes beyond raw NPD numbers sold. Just like showing in the top 10 of NPD esp in a slow month needs to be taken in context

Just gauging it vs a prediction of NMS debut month in terms of numbers sold
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Right, the slow month point is very valid.

For comparisons, lets look at R&C and NMS (UK & US).

R&C opened to 38k in the UK. That translated to about >207.5k in the U.S.

Alternatively, UC4 opened to 192k in the UK and did about 879k in the US. But that's a series that doesn't skew as much to the US as it does the ROTW.

Given these numbers and a whole bunch others (but aren't really as relevant due to month/genre, e.g. BF: Hardline opened to 100k in UK but did a million in U.S, but that was a shooter and in March), I feel pretty confident in saying at least 500k.

Less then that or close to that would be either: extremely poor legs or the title didn't mesh with US audiences (I'd be inclined to go with the former most likely).
 
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watdaeff4

Member
Primethius said:
Right, the slow month point is very valid.

For comparisons, lets look at R&C and NMS (UK & US).

R&C opened to 38k in the UK. That translated to about >207.5k in the U.S.

Alternatively, UC4 opened to 192k in the UK and did about 879k in the US. But that's a series that doesn't skew as much to the US as it does the ROTW.

Given these numbers and a whole bunch others (but aren't really as relevant due to month/genre, e.g. BF: Hardline opened to 100k in UK but did a million in U.S, but that was a shooter and in March), I feel pretty confident in saying at least 500k.

Less then that or close to that would be either: extremely poor legs or the title didn't mesh with US audiences (I'd be inclined to go with the former most likely).
Click to expand...

Thanks for the analysis. You have convinced me
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
Primethius said:
Less then that or close to that would be either: extremely poor legs or the title didn't mesh with US audiences (I'd be inclined to go with the former most likely).
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the poor legs will show in the second months. I can imagine it to be very front loaded.

Alternatively: price cut to 40 could help in the long run, as simplicity of gameplay could also be seen as quality (ease of use). Cover and artwork are still nice, so as a quick pick this one might stay if not too expensive.

Nt meshing with US audiences? I cannot see this. This game's concept, look and setting should fit well.
 
peter42O

peter42O

Member
If Sony drops the price of the base PS4 to $300 at the PlayStation Meeting, Microsoft should drop the price of the base Xbox One to $200 and just clear them out as quickly as possible while leaving the 500GB Slim at $300.
 
X

Xbox Master The

Banned
daniel77733 said:
If Sony drops the price of the base PS4 to $300 at the PlayStation Meeting, Microsoft should drop the price of the base Xbox One to $200 and just clear them out as quickly as possible while leaving the 500GB Slim at $300.
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That not only would end up cannibalizing, it confuses people and makes them lose more money faster.
 
P

Penguin

Member
Nintendo's PR

The Nintendo 3DS family of systems sold nearly 80 percent more units this July compared to the same time period a year ago, and finished as the overall best-selling video game system in July.

On the software side, Capcom’s Monster Hunter Generations emerged as the best-selling game for any system.


July sales of the Pokémon Omega Ruby and Pokémon Alpha Sapphire games for Nintendo 3DS were over 80 percent higher than July 2015. The games launched in November 2014.

July sales of the Pokémon X and Pokémon Y games for Nintendo 3DS were almost 200 percent higher than a year ago. The games launched in October 2013 and finished No. 16 and No. 22 on July’s best-sellers list, respectively.

Games playable on Nintendo systems claimed five of the top 11 spots on the July best-sellers list. These include Monster Hunter Generations from Capcom at No. 1, Minecraft: Wii U Edition from Microsoft at No. 6, Pokémon Omega Ruby at No. 8, Pokémon Alpha Sapphire at No. 10 and Kirby: Planet Robobot at No. 11.
The Nintendo 2DS system has crossed the 2 million lifetime sales mark in the U.S.
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D

DomsPlaying

Member
Nintendo's month. Wow. 5 of the top 11 titles.

I'm still calling Overwatch is #2. But all props go to Nintendo capitalizing on Pokemon craze and a solid MH release.
 
O

Oregano

Member
Saw that on Gonintendo. Is it weird that the best part of that PR is Monster Hunter at No.1?

Seems Capcom is doing just fine in the west on the 3DS.

EDIT: I expect a Sammy thread in the next few hours.
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
3DS sales this month are amazing, and lol Pokémon and Monster Hunter!
Really a solid month for Nintendo.

I can see 3DS in August sells over 200K.
 
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