• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

March 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes April 14th

M

Miles X

Member
JohnnyFootball said:
I agree with this. There is no way MS would've let an opportunity to provide positive PR about the Xbone pass.
Click to expand...

This has been said a thousand times already, not MS's figures to announce. They've even said you'd have to ask EA for that information.

Who are likely waiting for good 360 sell through so they can announce whatever milestone they see fit.
 
S

S¡mon

Banned
TrojanBlade said:
So looks like PS4 has not reached 7 mil figure? Otherwise Sony would have announced by now right? Or do they have to wait for NPD first to make an announcement?
Click to expand...

I expect an announcement in the next 48 hours. If Sony 'lost' March, than they'll talk about how they're already at or around 7 million units sold to counter Microsoft's "XB1 best selling console March" PR. If they somehow 'won' March, they'll be able to use both NPD numbers and WW sales numbers.
 
J

Jomjom

Banned
Dynopia said:
This has been said a thousand times already, not MS's figures to announce. They've even said you'd have to ask EA for that information.

Who are likely waiting for good 360 sell through so they can announce whatever milestone they see fit.
Click to expand...

I really doubt MS will not tout TF numbers tomorrow though in their PR statement. I'd say there's 0% chance of that.
 
A

allan-bh

Member
I don't remember Microsoft announcing figures of third party games on NPD press release (Now that numbers are not public).
 
G

gtj1092

Member
Don't think sony is going to announce figures every month. Only milestones. The last figure we got was after Japanese launch. The next will most likely be the quarter report or tomorrow which will be the same as the quarter report.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
allan-bh said:
I don't remember Microsoft announcing figures of third party games on NPD press release (Now that numbers are not public).
Click to expand...

http://majornelson.com/2011/09/29/gears-of-war-3-sells-three-million-copies-in-first-week-sales/

Following more than 22,000 midnight madness launch events, Microsoft and Epic Games today announced that the Xbox 360 exclusive sold more than three million copies in its first week since release, cementing Gears 3 as the biggest game of 2011 and catapulting the franchise beyond one billion dollars in lifetime sales.

In just one week, Gears 3 has already grossed more than any 2011 video game to date.
Click to expand...

Statement made on SEPTEMBER 29TH 2011 6:00 AM PT so like 3 years after NPD cracked down on Gaf I think?
 
A

anexanhume

Member
Chobel said:
Anyone can do an educated guess on how many PS4 sold this march?

Aquamarine? SwiftDeath?
Click to expand...

NA to WW sales ratio has been about 0.4 for PS4. 4/5 (take away week in April) times 1 million units is 800K. 0.4 times 800K is 320K. So probably 320K-350K if I had to guess. You can also subtract out the known Japan numbers but we have no hard EU numbers other than some vague ratios around the launch of titanfall.

edit: If you want March NPD, it's just 0.4 times 1 million, or 400K.
 
I

idlewild_

Member
anexanhume said:
NA to WW sales ratio has been about 0.4 for PS4. 4/5 (take away week in April) times 1 million units is 800K. 0.4 times 800K is 320K. So probably 320K-350K if I had to guess. You can also subtract out the known Japan numbers but we have no hard EU numbers other than some vague ratios around the launch of titanfall.
Click to expand...

Why take a week out in April? This NPD period runs through April 5 while Sony's PR is as of April 6. The time between PRs fits the NPD tracking period almost perfectly.
 
A

anexanhume

Member
idlewild_ said:
Why take a week out in April? This NPD period runs through April 5 while Sony's PR is as of April 6. The time between PRs fits the NPD tracking period almost perfectly.
Click to expand...

S/he said this March. If you want NPD guesstimate, add back 0.4 times 200K, or 80K. That puts you 400K plus.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
So March 2nd, PS4 -> 6M sold WW, April 6th PS4 - 7M WW

1M units in 35 days, so 28571.42857 sales WW a day

NPD is from March 2nd to April 5 [One day less] so assume 971428.6 sold WW in NPD tracking period

Going off this post, let's assume US ratios of WW PS4 sales at 36% and 42.4% as they seem the most reasonable

@ 36% of WW PS4 sales, March NPD sales would be ~350k

@ 42.4% of WW PS4 sales, March NPD sales would be ~412k

------

Also Jamix012's post that I replied to is now all the funnier
 
J

Jamix012

Member
SwiftDeath said:
So March 2nd, PS4 -> 6M sold WW, April 6th PS4 - 7M WW

1M units in 35 days, so 28571.42857 sales WW a day

NPD is from March 2nd to April 5 [One day less] so assume 971428.6 sold WW in NPD tracking period

Going off this post, let's assume US ratios of WW PS4 sales at 36% and 42.4% as they seem the most reasonable

@ 36% of WW PS4 sales, March NPD sales would be ~350k

@ 42.4% of WW PS4 sales, March NPD sales would be ~412k

------

Also Jamix012's post that I replied to is now all the funnier
Click to expand...

?? Which one?
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
Jamix012 said:
In my defense they didn't break 7 million by the end of march so...
Click to expand...

lol okay it's perfectly reasonable to think PS4 could sell 7M by April 6th but March 31st? That's just nuts...

Jamix012 said:
And I'm not convinced they broke 400k in March NPD either, though I could be proven wrong on that one.
Click to expand...

Quite frankly I don't really like calling out people too much as I myself make a ton of mistakes but my issue was far more with this line

Jamix012 said:
That means "rest of the world" would have to be 440k?
Click to expand...

Under the assumption that the US sells 400K, which would represent a 40% US ratio of WW sales which is almost certainly greater than what the numbers show.

You simply discount the PS4's WW sales too much imo
 
J

Jamix012

Member
SwiftDeath said:
lol okay it's perfectly reasonable to think PS4 could sell 7M by April 6th but March 31st? That's just nuts...
Click to expand...

I believe 2nd of march was 6million and I said it would be very difficult for it be 7m by the end of April. That's 29 days. 2nd March to April 6th is 35 days or 20% longer than 29 days. So in order for the PS4 to have hit it by the end of March it would have to have been selling 20% more on average per day. I hope you realise how large that really is. So no actually, I think it was a bit bonkers to expect 7 mill by the end of March.

Edit: I kind of guess this will lead to some sort of debate, but I'm not going to be here for over an hour so to sum up my "defense" is this.

Essentially what you were implying is that the PS4 could sell another 1 million world wide in 29 days. I thought that was too much by a fair amount. Had you instead said "I think the PS4 will sell 1 million with an extra 20% more time over my previous prediction" I probably would have ignored your statement entirely or said it was a little high but definitely not crazy. IE yes, the PS4 IS outperforming my expectations, but considering that I was right in that it didn't sell 1 million in 29 days, I don't think you're really in the position to brag.
 
Chobel

Chobel

Member
So less than 160K in japan, less than 400K in US and less than 440K in "rest of the world". Was PS4 released on another planet or something?
 
ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
Chobel said:
So less than 160K in japan, less than 400K in US and less than 440K in "rest of the world". Was PS4 released on another planet or something?
Click to expand...
US is over 400k I believe... most supply hold back to Japan launch in February supplied US in March... and there is on more week of sales.

I will stick with my prediction: 480k
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
Jamix012 said:
I believe 2nd of march was 6million and I said it would be very difficult for it be 7m by the end of April. That's 29 days. 2nd March to April 6th is 35 days or 20% longer than 29 days. So in order for the PS4 to have hit it by the end of March it would have to have been selling 20% more on average per day. I hope you realise how large that really is. So no actually, I think it was a bit bonkers to expect 7 mill by the end of March.
Click to expand...

Sure based on the numbers as presented it could be highly unlikely that Sony reached 7M by the end of March but your original comment and what I had and still have a problem with was your absolute discounting of how much of PS4 sales come from not the US but the rest of the world. That is and was my problem with your post and why I responded in such a long and detailed answer on it.

Jamix012 said:
Edit: I kind of guess this will lead to some sort of debate, but I'm not going to be here for over an hour so to sum up my "defense" is this.

Essentially what you were implying is that the PS4 could sell another 1 million world wide in 29 days. I thought that was too much by a fair amount. Had you instead said "I think the PS4 will sell 1 million with an extra 20% more time over my previous prediction" I probably would have ignored your statement entirely or said it was a little high but definitely not crazy. IE yes, the PS4 IS outperforming my expectations, but considering that I was right in that it didn't sell 1 million in 29 days, I don't think you're really in the position to brag.
Click to expand...

I'm not trying to brag as such, simply pointing out how more than likely PS4 has shown again it's ability to sell consoles in not just the US but in the rest of the world as well [sans Japan because lol PS4 sales in Japan]
 
T

theprodigy

Member
The day before shit goes down, I'll ask something completely unrelated:
How come Europe, or even a single country within Europe, doesn't have a single sales tracker that gives hardware numbers?
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
theprodigy said:
The day before shit goes down, I'll ask something completely unrelated:
How come Europe, or even a single country within Europe, doesn't have a single sales tracker that gives hardware numbers?
Click to expand...

GfK has a complete monopoly over European sales numbers.

They're much more expensive than NPD / Famitsu if you want to get access to all countries...so I guess they want to be more protective of their raw figures as a result.
 
geordiemp

geordiemp

Member
ethomaz said:
US is over 400k I believe... most supply hold back to Japan launch in February supplied US in March... and there is on more week of sales.

I will stick with my prediction: 480k
Click to expand...

I am higher than you at Ps4 520 K but for similar reasons...

Japan going slow and GAF posters (anecdotal) from other EU countries like Germany and Sweden saying few PS4 shipments / stock issues and maybe Sony diverted allot of that 1 million Ps4 to USA....

Maybe it would explain the bish bunker (or its gone spectacularly the other way and Xone trounced Ps4).

Both Ps4 and ONE selling around 400 K +/- 50 K would be not very interesting at all...
 
R

RealityPales

Member
tumblr_inline_mjvliy9cCV1qz4rgp.gif
 
S

S¡mon

Banned
S¡mon;108398952 said:
I expect an announcement in the next 48 hours. If Sony 'lost' March, than they'll talk about how they're already at or around 7 million units sold to counter Microsoft's "XB1 best selling console March" PR. If they somehow 'won' March, they'll be able to use both NPD numbers and WW sales numbers.
Click to expand...
I'm psychic. Hooray.

SwiftDeath said:
Not to be rude, but I think your 3DS number is also fairly low considering.
Click to expand...

3DS low? Well, I don't know what to say. Really, 109,000 is all I expect.
 
L

lightning2k3

Member
Is it possible Sony shipped extra consoles to the U.S for march to counter the TF push by microsoft? That could screw with the country sell ratios from previous months.
 
M

MisterMrMister

Member
I know it's too late for predictions, but for my first time, I do wanna have it out there.

I do think that the Xbox One did benefit from Titanfall, but I don't think it will have benefited as much as some people think. I put the Xbox One at around 350k

I'm not expecting that Sony shuffled with the allocation of stocks a lot. Since supply is still mostly limited, I'm expecting around 300k for the PS4

So, to summarize:

XBOXONE: 350K
PS4: 300K
WiiU: 70K
Vita: 25K
3DS: 125K
PS3: 50k
360: 60K
 
A

AniHawk

Member
geordiemp said:
I am higher than you at Ps4 520 K but for similar reasons...

Japan going slow and GAF posters (anecdotal) from other EU countries like Germany and Sweden saying few PS4 shipments / stock issues and maybe Sony diverted allot of that 1 million Ps4 to USA....

Maybe it would explain the bish bunker (or its gone spectacularly the other way and Xone trounced Ps4).

Both Ps4 and ONE selling around 400 K +/- 50 K would be not very interesting at all...
Click to expand...

i can understand why consoles may be held back in japan, but if they're being held back from europe for similar reasons, then that doesn't make a lot of sense considering the console's current worldwide sales. it's more likely that ps4s are just moving faster in europe than the rest of the world. sony is less able to keep up with demand there.

i'm still running with the assumption that this march will function like any other of the last five years. however i wouldn't be surprised if sales for ps4 and xbox one are far higher than normal, and that the general pattern will return next year.
 
T

theprodigy

Member
geordiemp said:
I am higher than you at Ps4 520 K but for similar reasons...

Japan going slow and GAF posters (anecdotal) from other EU countries like Germany and Sweden saying few PS4 shipments / stock issues and maybe Sony diverted allot of that 1 million Ps4 to USA....

Maybe it would explain the bish bunker (or its gone spectacularly the other way and Xone trounced Ps4).

Both Ps4 and ONE selling around 400 K +/- 50 K would be not very interesting at all...
Click to expand...

I find it hard to believe that USA sales would match, let alone surpass, European sales

edit: really random, but what are we expecting for April NPD for Wii U
 
A

anexanhume

Member
Aquamarine said:
Anyone who predicts more than 270K consoles sold this month...is expecting extra console allotment.
Click to expand...

Yup. January had December drop-shipped units to steal from its allotment, February had Japanese launch and March will have Chinese New Year to deal with in its numbers. April will be the first month without reallocated shipments, a major territory launch or a production halt. We'll finally see pure demand in most places.
 
T

Toth

Member
inner-G said:
Can't wait to open up GAF tomorrow and see FFX up in that #1 spot.

I'll be all like "HA HA HA HA HA"
Click to expand...

It would be great if FFX charts high so there would be support for those other HD remakes. On the other hand, there will be the usual focus on FFXIII hating than what the sales really mean.

When is SE's next quarterly report?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom