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November 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 9th

Welfare

Welfare

Member
Xando said:
I think Sony won because they had more stock(speculation). If MS had won BF they would've screamed it from every PR angle possible.
Click to expand...

That would be a case of horrible stock management if the One was supply constrained in the US during a holiday month.
 
F

FullMetaltech

Member
Welfare said:
But just how good is good enough?
Click to expand...
IMO enough to make up for the price adjustment and bundled software. I mean its not like the PS4 is gonna stop selling either way. It also means Sony can pricecut when they see fit. MS can go lower buy at what cost are they willing to take a huge hit like they have already.
 
W

WaffleTaco

Wants to outlaw technological innovation.
[XB1] 700K
[PS4] 600K
[3DS] 300K
[WIU] 250K
[360] 200K
[PS3] 100K

I normally don't do this type of stuff, but Black Friday Special! Whats the idea so far on December for who will win?
 
P

PhatSaqs

Banned
FullMetaltech said:
IMO enough to make up for the price adjustment and bundled software. I mean its not like the PS4 is gonna stop selling either way. It also means Sony can pricecut when they see fit. MS can go lower buy at what cost are they willing to take a huge hit like they have already.
Click to expand...
What huge hit? Pulling Kinect wasnt a hit and at 349 theyre probably breaking even minus the games of course.
 
H

harSon

Banned
Aquamarine said:
Doesn't it seem a bit odd how Microsoft is so silent and evasive about Black Friday?

After all, take this:


Microsoft 2008 Black Friday PR (released December 1st, 2008):

"Xbox 360 Registers Biggest Black Friday in Its History"




Microsoft 2009 Black Friday PR (released November 30th, 2009):




Microsoft 2010 Black Friday PR (released November 29th, 2010):

"Xbox 360 Surpasses 2.5 Million Kinect Sensors Sold"




Microsoft 2011 Black Friday PR (released November 29th, 2011):

"Xbox 360 Sells Nearly 1M Consoles in Biggest Week in Xbox History"




Microsoft 2012 Black Friday PR (released November 27th, 2012):

"Xbox 360 Black Friday Report"





Microsoft 2013 Launch / Black Friday PR (released December 11th, 2013):

"Xbox One Sells More Than 2 Million Units in the First 18 days; Sold Out at Most Major Retailers"




...Compared to this:


Microsoft 2014 Black Friday PR (released November 29th, 2014):




Aaron Greenberg didn't even brag about Xbox One sales. He only responded haphazardly when asked by someone via Twitter, and he used a vague "incredible" instead of anything concrete.
Click to expand...

Last years PR statement wasn't until December 11th
 
K

Kazuma Kiryu

Member
Aquamarine said:
Pachter's Predictions:

XB1: 750K
PS4: 600K
WIU: 300K
Click to expand...

If the difference really is only ~150k, no wonder Sony didn't care about their price and just bundled some stuff. Seems to me they will be able to reach E3 2015 without a pricedrop and just sticking with bundles.
 
Q

quetz67

Banned
blakep267 said:
I know it's early in the month but wow, people must be using other places to buy ps4's. 41 is crazy
Click to expand...

Xbone is dropping, PS4 is rising (both slowly though).

Xbone ACU is the only SKU in charts, wonder what happens when this drops out of the top 100. Price drops? More new bundles?
 
G

GifGafIsTheBestGaf

Member
AstuteClass said:
Do you know what's weird?

NPD hits in 3 days and given how X1 gutted the price massively and threw in a load of games, we know for absolutely certain it's outsold the PS4 for NA and Black Friday.

However, where oh where is MS with the PR on this? You'd think they'd have dropped that bomb right in the middle of the PSX event, but now it's practically over, they've kinda missed their cue on that one.

Are they just going to release their PR an hour before the numbers hit GAF? If that's the case, could it be that they only outsold PS4 by like 100-200k for the month?
Click to expand...

maybe they arent 100% sure they won because that GTA bundle is god damn scary so they wont take a chance until they get all the numbers
 
M

Mrbob

Member
demigod said:
Yep, i dont think xbone won november. You would hear major and yusef brag about it by now.
Click to expand...

Even though the GTA bundle has seem to run low in stock or out at most places, XB1 won November. 329 plus various retail incentives is too strong.
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Chobel said:
Judging from Amazon, XB1 will also win December.
Click to expand...

Looking at Amazon.com, it would also look like Nintendo's going to have a big December, software-wise at least.

And what the hell is MK8 doing at 12th? Are there special deals on Amazon.com?
 
K

Kill3r7

Member
Mpl90 said:
Looking at Amazon.com, it would also look like Nintendo's going to have a big December, software-wise at least.

And what the hell is MK8 doing at 12th? Are there special deals on Amazon.com?
Click to expand...

It's the holiday season and MK8 is arguably the one must have game if you own a WiiU. Plus, Amazon is offering it for $51.99.
 
J

John Bender

Banned
blakep267 said:
I know it's early in the month but wow, people must be using other places to buy ps4's. 41 is crazy
Click to expand...
Clearly not, as it seems.
PS4 is getting its ass kicked at the moment (in NA).
Sony needs a price cut ASAP.
And the $400+ price for the white Destiny bundle is a bad joke.
$349 should be the new price tag if they still want to compete in NA.

It's time to react.
 
SDCowboy

SDCowboy

Member
blakep267 said:
I know it's early in the month but wow, people must be using other places to buy ps4's. 41 is crazy
Click to expand...

Yeah something doesn't seem right. The PS4 sales couldn't have completely fallen off a cliff like that. It's in the top 5-10 for like a year and then suddenly the Xbone is red hot and the PS4 has plummeted to the 3rd page?
 
SDCowboy

SDCowboy

Member
John Bender said:
Clearly not, as it seems.
PS4 is getting its ass kicked at the moment (in NA).
Sony needs a price cut ASAP.
And the $400+ price for the white Destiny bundle is a bad joke.
$349 should be the new price tag if they still want to compete in NA.

It's time to react.
Click to expand...

The PS4 will need a price cut if the Xbone is going to stay at $350 with games.
 
F

Final Verdict

Member
A_Gorilla said:
No sales boasting by Sony at PSX...
Click to expand...
Yeah, neither one has said a thing which is quite suspicious.
My Idea is that MS won Nov, but that BF was probably close/dead even.

blakep267 said:
I know it's early in the month but wow, people must be using other places to buy ps4's. 41 is crazy
Click to expand...

Naaah, its because mot people who wanted a PS4 have already got one on BF.
Now that the deal is over, there is not much reason to grab one.

On the other hand, X1 still has the $350 + 2 games deal going on, so there is still plenty of reason to get on before the holiday ends.
 
MisterR

MisterR

Member
[XB1] 852K
[PS4] 722K
[3DS] 450K
[WIU] 280K
[360] 180K
[PS3] 130K

Xbox One wins December as well and then won't win again until at least Nov. 2015, if ever.
 
SDCowboy

SDCowboy

Member
Final Verdict said:
Naaah, its because mot people who wanted a PS4 have already got one on BF.
Now that the deal is over, there is not much reason to grab one.

On the other hand, X1 still has the $350 + 2 games deal going on, so there is still plenty of reason to get on before the holiday ends.
Click to expand...

I mean, shit, I have zero interest in an Xbone since I have a PS4 and even I'm tempted to buy on at that price. Sony is going to have to to have a serious price drop soon if Amazon is any indication at all.
 
Papacheeks

Papacheeks

Banned
I feel the problem is going to be after Christmas for Xbox. November and December regardless of the bundles are usually strong for most console sales.

Xbox clearly took November and depending on sales from retailers may take December, but I feel December will be closer while November will be by at least 80-100,000.

Sony might do a Bloodbourne Bundle in spring depending on what happens in trends for the new year.

If they were to announce a price drop they would do it, at E3. A price Drop now would help them, but would hurt any profit they would make off of 399$ price tag.
 
Cornbread78

Cornbread78

Member
SDCowboy said:
Yeah something doesn't seem right. The PS4 sales couldn't have completely fallen off a cliff like that. It's in the top 5-10 for like a year and then suddenly the Xbone is red hot and the PS4 has plummeted to the 3rd page?
Click to expand...



The market is changing and it appears a lot of 360 owners and parents waited until they got the price drop to officially upgrade their systems. Working in retail, it's been a pulpable change in the market the last month or so since the price drop started. I clearly expect MS to win Nov. and will be nausiated by their PR reeases, but congrats to MS on making the changes needed to be competitive in the marketplace. They definately have the better value proposition right now in the marketplace.



Some anecdotal sales info from BF:
I had someone return one of the BF Halo bundles so I could finally check the sales numbers from BF and it appears that the PS4 with standard ($50GC) and GTA bundle sold more during the BF week than the Halo and AC bundles did. We received a large shipment of the GTA bundles, and limited of the Halo bundles, so that would account for it.



As for my sale numbers:

[XB1] 850K
[PS4] 750K
[3DS] 350K
[360] 290K
[WIU] 250K
[PS3] 140K
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Cornbread78 said:
The market is changing and it appears a lot of 360 owners and parents waited until they got the price drop to officially upgrade their systems. Working in retail, it's been a pulpable change in the market the last month or so since the price drop started. I clearly expect MS to win Nov. and will be nausiated by their PR reeases, but congrats to MS on making the changes needed to be competitive in the marketplace. They definately have the better value proposition right now in the marketplace.



Some anecdotal sales info from BF:
I had someone return one of the BF Halo bundles so I could finally check the sales numbers from BF and it appears that the PS4 with standard ($50GC) and GTA bundle sold more during the BF week than the Halo and AC bundles did. We received a large shipment of the GTA bundles, and limited of the Halo bundles, so that would account for it.
Click to expand...

Which retailer do you work for?
 
B

blakep267

Member
MisterR said:
[XB1] 852K
[PS4] 722K
[3DS] 450K
[WIU] 280K
[360] 180K
[PS3] 130K

Xbox One wins December as well and then won't win again until at least Nov. 2015, if ever.
Click to expand...
ehh I wouldn't say that. If the keep the price at 350 and still have leftover bundles in January, they'd probably still won, albeit with a lot less sales. I even think they could win February if they did a 350 evolve bundle, but they'd probably lose March with bloodbourne coming out
 
D

dolemite

Member
The standard PS4 sku on Amazon also includes a free downloadable game:
Buy a PlayStation 4, Pick a Free Game.
Receive a code redeemable for one free game download, when you buy a PlayStation 4 Console, for up to $59.99 in value. Pick from Destiny, NBA 2K15, Far Cry 4, or Little Big Planet 3.
Click to expand...
Not a bad deal, especially the LBP 3 game.
 
B

BruceLeeRoy

Banned
No PR from MS is actually a sign that they won.

Any month that they have lost though having great momentum had immediate damage control PR released.

I think them being silent is because they won and are waiting to shout it from the rooftops when official NPDs come out.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
BruceLeeRoy said:
No PR from MS is actually a sign that they won.

Any month they they have lost though having great momentum they have started damage control immediately.

I think them being silent is because they won and are waiting to shout it from the rooftops when official NPDs come out.
Click to expand...

They are currently crafting the Master PR article that will be posted on Thursday.
 
M

mrklaw

MrArseFace
Cornbread78 said:
The market is changing and it appears a lot of 360 owners and parents waited until they got the price drop to officially upgrade their systems. Working in retail, it's been a pulpable change in the market the last month or so since the price drop started. I clearly expect MS to win Nov. and will be nausiated by their PR reeases, but congrats to MS on making the changes needed to be competitive in the marketplace. They definately have the better value proposition right now in the marketplace.
Click to expand...

I can't see such a big change being purely on cost. The differential isn't that big comparitively. More likely a combination like you say of people seeing a critical price level to prompt them to upgrade from 360 (we have seen relatively high levels of 360 software sales suggesting those users hadn't switched yet Vs PS3), combined with perhaps PS4 hitting a level of demand satisfaction due to great initial sales - the sort of thing that would suggest Sony need to naturally drop the price a little to maintain sales. The two together could combine to create a big win for Xbox in November
 
D

DustyVonEric

Member
John Bender said:
Clearly not, as it seems.
PS4 is getting its ass kicked at the moment (in NA).
Sony needs a price cut ASAP.
And the $400+ price for the white Destiny bundle is a bad joke.
$349 should be the new price tag if they still want to compete in NA.

It's time to react.
Click to expand...

SDCowboy said:
The PS4 will need a price cut if the Xbone is going to stay at $350 with games.
Click to expand...

I don't think we're there yet, though I fully expect XB1 to win Nov.

Sony can still bundle games and Plus subs until their more publicized games (The Order, Bloodborne) start hitting to keep them close. Marketing deals with big multiplat releases will boost sales as well. I really think Sony's strategy in NA is not to win at all cost, but to keep it close and profitable while WW sales grow.


I think we will see a price drop next E3 at the earliest, but most likely next Holiday.
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
BruceLeeRoy said:
No PR from MS is actually a sign that they won.

Any month they they have lost though having great momentum they have started damage control immediately.

I think them being silent is because they won and are waiting to shout it from the rooftops when official NPDs come out.
Click to expand...

It could be also a sign they could have won, but without sufficient momentum (i.e. not being that higher from PS4), or that they didn't win, or that numbers were low compared to expectations, wheter they were ahead of PS4 or not.

I mean, don't you see how they've always had a PR about BF in the past few years...or, why not, just a Twitter post with a specific comment about them?
This year, nothing. Just an unspecific answer to a fan, meaning that, without that casual question on Twitter, we wouldn't even have had that.
 
P

PhatSaqs

Banned
Mpl90 said:
It could be also a sign they could have won, but without sufficient momentum (i.e. not being that higher from PS4), or that they didn't win, or that numbers were low compared to expectations, wheter they were ahead of PS4 or not.

I mean, don't you see how they've always had a PR about BF in the past few years...or, why not, just a Twitter post with a specific comment about them?
This year, nothing. Just an unspecific answer to a fan, meaning that, without that casual question on Twitter, we wouldn't even have had that.
Click to expand...
I doubt numbers are low. The thing is 19th for the year at Amazon already. For perspective the Destiny bundle is 30th. They've moved a bunch of those AC bundles for sure.
 
E

Elios83

Member
[360] 280k
[3DS] 400k
[PS3] 180k
[PS4] 900k
[WIU] 350k
[XB1] 1000k

I'm expecting great sales for PS4 and XB1, with XB1 coming out on top because of the great deals throughout the whole month but not by a significant margin considering the strong PS4 bundles during BF and the lack of bragging by MS so far.
I expect all the other platforms to perform rather poorly.
 
G

gtj1092

Member
Cornbread78 said:
The market is changing and it appears a lot of 360 owners and parents waited until they got the price drop to officially upgrade their systems. Working in retail, it's been a pulpable change in the market the last month or so since the price drop started. I clearly expect MS to win Nov. and will be nausiated by their PR reeases, but congrats to MS on making the changes needed to be competitive in the marketplace. They definately have the better value proposition right now in the marketplace.



Some anecdotal sales info from BF:
I had someone return one of the BF Halo bundles so I could finally check the sales numbers from BF and it appears that the PS4 with standard ($50GC) and GTA bundle sold more during the BF week than the Halo and AC bundles did. We received a large shipment of the GTA bundles, and limited of the Halo bundles, so that would account for it.



As for my sale numbers:

[XB1] 850K
[PS4] 750K
[3DS] 350K
[360] 290K
[WIU] 250K
[PS3] 140K
Click to expand...

Thats suprising because I remember you had that pic with a huge pile of Ps4s next to Xones.

Do you know if Sony plans to restock the GTA bundle. Seems they already stopped advertising it and are back to pushing Destiny for some odd reason. They would be wise to at least drop that bundle to $399.
 
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