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(NPD Estimate) Next Gen Consoles Break 3M in December (Wii > 360??)
- Thread starter Elios83
- Start date
Karma Kramer
Banned
Parl said:
Wow... those are high numbers
Newzboyz99
Losers! My wife has me on lock!
Mrbob said:Wii potentially beats X360 in hardware sales.
Gears potentially beat Zelda in software sales.
I guess things are even.
Except GOW has a higher base to sell too....for now
sonycowboy said:
This list isn't doing your argument any favors. You've got like ten games there that are available on the other "Premium" platform that people can buy for less money. Also, Motorstorm is the only one that's a somewhat known commodity at the moment. Lair could suck if the last Star Wars game from Factor 5 is any indication. Plus, a lot of people don't like Factor 5 games to begin with. It's not something to hang your hat on.
If you want to play list war, do it with exclusives, because that's all that really matters.
Either way, I think Nintendo is heading for victory over the other two in the long run this generation.
It's funny too, because as much as Nintendo didn't want to play the game of comparison and competition with the other two, Sony and Microsoft have pretty much played along and acted like Nintendo doesn't really exist and constantly encourage the comparison of PS3 <-> 360. They're actively segregating their consoles from the Wii and I think over time this will make their "traditional" games look even more antiquated and archaic.
Also, Microsoft needs to figure out a way to keep all their 360 commercials from looking like advertisements for guns and aliens. The Lost Planet ad I saw was neat, but the average person is going to go "Another shooter?"
Souldriver
Member
Oh, but that's clearly because of the people who couldn't get one at launch. Wait till february, then you'll see a major drop, like every Nintendo console.Branduil said:
lol, teh kiddi
PhoenixDark
Banned
bmf said:
I'd say
Wii - 60 Mil (more than half of which could wind up from Japan)
360 - 40 Mil
PS3: 30 Mil
Souldriver
Member
Is that for this year's end in US or for lifetime sales?Mrbob said:Wii potentially beats X360 in hardware sales.
Gears potentially beat Zelda in software sales.
I guess things are even.
Mrbob said:Wii potentially beats X360 in hardware sales.
Gears potentially beat Zelda in software sales.
I guess things are even.
Gears almost certainly has Zelda Wii beat currently, although given Zelda's attach rate in the US and Europe it could potentially be past 2 million worldwide. I'm very curious as to how much the GC version has sold, because I really don't have a good guess for how well it will sell.
Ash Sparrow
Member
360 40 mil
Wii 39 mil
PS3 30 mil
Wii 39 mil
PS3 30 mil
Ash Sparrow
Member
I just think more people will be sattisfied with handheld and PS2 will keep selling and PS3 isnt going to be as big as GAF thinks.aeolist said:
Grampa Simpson
Banned
Branduil said:
Is this better?
Wii - 110 Mil.
360 - 35 Mil.
PS3 - 28 Mil.
dammitmattt
Banned
aeolist said:
Those are good reasons, but you can't compare the online since you can't really do anything with Wii's free online other than download VC games, browse the net and check the weather one time to confirm that you'll never do it again, and send Miis. You can do much more with Xbox Live Silver, which is also free.
Other than that, your point remains a valid one. I wasn't able to afford an Xbox until someone backed into my car and wanted to settle with cash instead of insurance. Xbox + Halo + PGR >>>> fixing a dent on an old car
I'm out of school now so money isn't a factor, but it was back in the day. However, I do have to say that back then I went into debt to make sure I had the newest systems and games that I wanted. That's hardcore!
Buffy4ever
Banned
sonycowboy said:
Alot of these games are on x-box 360 or are going to be on x-box 360.
Oblivion
Rainbow Six
GRAW 2,
VF5
Assassin's Creed
NBA Street
MOH: Airborne
Splinter Cell
Tennis
Does Mercenaries 2 have a publisher yet?? I thought it was heavily rumored that if a 3rd party publisher published Mercenaries 2 that it would go to X-box 360.
that leaves Motorstorm, LAIR, Heavenly Sword, and Armored Core 4 to attract people. I really think the Wii's software line up could attract people to the Wii, even after Christmas. I think Wii's price is helping Nintendo, and that it is so different. We could see a new order this generation.
Just curious..I thought people didn't buy alot of games in 1st quarter, unless you are hardcore.
soundwave05
Member
I really, really doubt both Lair and Heavenly Sword will make it out in Q1 as well.
You know, I am wondering about January's NPD. Wii's are still impossible to find in stores right now(January8th) and if this continues for 10more days, then thats half a month of Wii's selling like hotcakes, after the holiday season.
Does anyone(I'm looking at you Sonycowboy ) have any inkling of how many Wii's Nintendo is shipping to the States as of this moment?
My thinking is like this;
ALOT of people played/brought thier Wii's to friends/families homes, and that could be the reason why people still cant find any in stores. Those people are out buyingt them right now.
Could January be a massive month for the Wii as well, becuase of this?
I still havnt seen a Wii, in a store, and I was at Target, and Miejer today. Either Nintendo has exhuasted all thier shipments, and hasnt shipped a batcnh since late december, or those suckers are still flying off the shelves.
If January is huge for the Wii, do we right that off as aftershock purchases, and wait untill Febuarys NPD for proof of the Wii's selling power?
Does anyone(I'm looking at you Sonycowboy
) have any inkling of how many Wii's Nintendo is shipping to the States as of this moment? My thinking is like this;
ALOT of people played/brought thier Wii's to friends/families homes, and that could be the reason why people still cant find any in stores. Those people are out buyingt them right now.
Could January be a massive month for the Wii as well, becuase of this?
I still havnt seen a Wii, in a store, and I was at Target, and Miejer today. Either Nintendo has exhuasted all thier shipments, and hasnt shipped a batcnh since late december, or those suckers are still flying off the shelves.
If January is huge for the Wii, do we right that off as aftershock purchases, and wait untill Febuarys NPD for proof of the Wii's selling power?
soundwave05
Member
Wait until Spaceworld.
citrus lump
Banned
thestopsign
Member
jimbo said:
That was me!
Your right, I'll eat some crow. Nintendo was able to ship just as many as they promised. It was the hype for the console, and the long lines of people outside for the Wii that masked the Wii's Shipments. They are being snatched up as soon as more come in.
soundwave05
Member
The Wii is not the second coming of the GameCube. Whether the people who want to push that agenda will eat crow in a few days or a few months ... doesn't really matter.
This generation will be dramatically different from the last one. You might as well get used to it now.
This generation will be dramatically different from the last one. You might as well get used to it now.
If Wii > 360 for December is true, I must say that is quite the accomplishment for Nintendo considering that the 360 had a very healthy supply of units on shelves, lots of deals at retailers throughout the month, and got their first true 'blockbuster' game.
Also, if Nintendo did achieve 4 million Wii sold by the end of 2006, that's almost half of what the Xbox 360 has with an entire year on the market alone. I am having doubts on the 360's place in the market if this continues. Halo 3 will surely push some more systems in 2007, but Nintendo is going to have Mario and Smash Bros. and Sony will have their own killer apps for the holiday season.
Also, if Nintendo did achieve 4 million Wii sold by the end of 2006, that's almost half of what the Xbox 360 has with an entire year on the market alone. I am having doubts on the 360's place in the market if this continues. Halo 3 will surely push some more systems in 2007, but Nintendo is going to have Mario and Smash Bros. and Sony will have their own killer apps for the holiday season.
WARNING! LONG POST AHEAD.MobiusPigeon said:
On this note, I have to state that people here are seriously bad economists. Seriously bad. I will not claim I am some kind of economist. I only completed two courses of Economics in college, and honestly, it was just the basics and I couldn't use anything I learned to make usefull predictions here. But it was enough to teach me to ignore 95% of the predictions on GAF simply due to the way some of you guys come up with stuff.
On the subject of price, people believe that the actual "difference" in price is going to always be a difference in sales. People argue both sides of this argument but fail to come to any sort of an agreement or conclusion. Some people state that because there's a difference of $100 or $200 that is why the sales of the Wii will be greater than the 360 or PS3. Or the opposite, that that's why the 360 or PS3 sales will be lower than the Wii. Then you have others that point to the fact hey the GC was the cheapest of all yet it sold the least, so price did not matter.
While all of these statements have truth to them, every single one of them are incomplete. And you can't make good sales estimations based on incomplete arguments. Or in otherwords, one or two if x then y statements.
What I hold to be truth about price in general is a little bit more complex than what is usually discussed on GAF. For example, the importance in the difference in price between each console is important, but it's not as important as figuring out price barriers and being below certain levels to be able to reach mass market. Which is why you have so many contradictory statements that are all true.
The reason why the GC sold less than Xbox and PS2 even though it was cheaper than both, is simply because at the same time, the Xbox and PS2 were themselves just as affordable. They were all under a price barrier which helped them all reach mass market, at which point the decision for customers to make a purchase became less about money and more about games, brand image, publicity, etc.
This time around it's a little different. The Wii is already below one price barrier that has been established over generations. That of $300. It's within $50 of my own personal estimated mass market range of $100-$200. It WILL benefit from this initially until both the Xbox and PS3 can fall below that $300 barrier, and then eventually between that $200 barrier.
At that point however, things will change dramatically. Once both the 360 and PS3 fall below those stated barriers, the fact that one is $50 or even $100 cheaper or more expensive than another will no longer have the same impact or effect that it currently has. It will fall under the same model that you saw with the PS2, Xbox and GC, where games, image, publicity will be the bigger difference maker. So it's not so much the difference, but rather, exactly between WHICH price points is this difference located.
However, this is simply a one sided discussion, because even right now those other factors are having an impact on costumers(but again, currently it's less of an impact compared to price). But without any of us here being in the research and analysis fields, it's impossible to quantify the impact on sales that image, games and publicity is currently having on these consoles.
To simplify things, and use the if x then y statements that GAF loves so much, if all were equal then you could say that a $100 difference in price equals a 30% increase in sales. But then you would have to fill in the percentage of increaes dictated by publicity, games and image. So you would have something like: The Wii benefits 30% increase in sales over the others because of price, but loses 5% because of lack of interest in game library for a total of 25% increase over the others. Or something to that effect. There have to be some other variables figured in there.
The point is that trying to estimate these long terms sales with the data that we have is very inaccurate. Judging sales by previous generations, one month worth of sales, holiday season sales, or god knows what else just isn't going to get you very accurate results, and if they do happen to match, believe me, it was more luck than the factors you used to base your predictions on.
Right now the best way to guesstimate non-holiday season sales is to simply keep track of monthly sales figures, allow for monthly percentage increases that we have had over the years, and average these sales out to take a guess at the next month. And this is assuming nothing drastic changes during these periods, such as major price drops, major image impacting or industry breaking game releases. But anything over one month's prediction, is simply going to be inaccurate.
So in conclusion chill out with the wacky statements.
Think about how crazy that is, and how underplayed it is as well.Hero said:
If the PS3 had sold half the 360's userbase in 6weeks we would have seen 15threads about it already, several press releases from Sony, and just crazy ass shit going down here at GAF.
The Wii does it, and its underplayed, even though Nintendo was supposed to DOA this gen, and it would be easy to get one on launch day. Just stroll into the store and buy 5.
The Nintendo Wii, has sold half the 360's userbase in 6weeks.
Thats ****ing crazy.
*If the numbers pan out, e.t.c., e.t.c.
soundwave05
Member
moku said:
To be fair though, one the 360 and Wii are seen as more complimentary products rather being in direct comparision. Also the 360 has no presence in Japan and a limited one in Europe. Nintendo's fast start in those two markets obviously allows them to gain faster.
Lets face it -- Microsoft also sucks ass when it comes to selling to anyone outside of the hardcore gamer demographic, and they Wii is designed first and foremost for that crowd entirely.
With the PS3 being $500/$600 ... that leaves the Wii with a huge chunck of audience to itself. The more remarkable turn around for Nintendo I think has been in their brand marketing.
The Wii is a stronger brand already than the GameCube was in its culminative 5 years and even usurped the PS3 in terms of hype. Nintendo getting more hype/press than Sony -- think about how *insane* that concept is. It's like Brazil suddenly becoming a huge force in international ice hockey or something.
Dont be an apologist(I'm not yelling at you, or even angry so dont mistake my words here) for what seemed like over half of GAF thinking Nintendo would be DOA this Gen.soundwave05 said:
The fact of the matter is is that so many feet have been put into peoples mouths around here, I could make a million$ selling foot cream for peoples ****ing face.
The Wii was almost universally laughed at, period.
They do exist in the same market, just as the DS/PSP exist in the same market. Price didnt matter last gen, and it shouldnt this gen.
Just becuase one product costs more then another one, doesnt mean its not in the same market, or even if its different.
People thought it would fail, and fail spectacularly. The fact of the matter is, it's hot as hell, and making excuses is lame.
If the Wii really did sell that much, then Canada got screwed. Every single store around where I live received no more than 2 or 3 shipments in all of December, and none were even half as large as the original 19th shipment.
I have seen Wiimotes pretty much everywhere though, so if those are still sold out a lot in the US, then maybe that's an indicator of not that many new owners since November.
I have seen Wiimotes pretty much everywhere though, so if those are still sold out a lot in the US, then maybe that's an indicator of not that many new owners since November.
citrus lump
Banned
I think we should no longer include the Nintendo Wii in GAF discussions.
We don't talk about the V-Smile after all.
We don't talk about the V-Smile after all.
moku said:
That's only crazy if you generalize it and take it at face value. In reality it means little. Because for one, that IF is simply that: an IF, and IT WILL NOT pan out. It SHOULD be underplayed, if you have any sense at all.
Why?
Well for one thing, the 360 itself also had the same kind of an increase over itself during the past couple of months. You could also say that the 360 also almost sold 50% of its user base in November + December too.
And we KNOW that's not going to pan out either.
Because of the holiday season, because of the launches, because of all the buzz, all we are seeing is actually pretty normal and happens every year and every launch....it's a spike. Every system is currently having spikes for mostly the same reasons, and some for a couple of different reasons. But spikes, are just that. Spikes. They go up but we all know they come back down.
And while the Wii was able to get to 50% of the 360's user base over the past two months, it will probably take it the rest of the year, or at least close to the end of summer, before it does the other remaining 50%. Why do you think Nintendo estimated to ship 4 million by the end of 2006(month and a half) but only 6 million by march? Because they expect sales to drop by more than 50% after the holidays.
The only reason is seems more amazing than it is that the Wii launched with great hype, demand and also great supply(which is really a first), but what is actually underplayed is that IT IS in fact another holiday launch. And the system will probably never sell as good as this until NEXT holiday season. Just like the others.
PS: I don't mean that the Wii sales are not amazing. They are. I am reffering to the catchphrase "almost 50% of the 360 user base" when I said seemed more amazing than it is.
soundwave05
Member
The Wii supply is not what I'd call that high either. I had an easier time actually getting a PS2 when it came out than I did with the Wii.
They clearly were way below having adequete supply in any market. They may have sold 4 million or close to that, but clearly they could have done 6 million this Christmas. I don't even want to know how many DS' they could have sold this holiday season if they could have met demand.
They clearly were way below having adequete supply in any market. They may have sold 4 million or close to that, but clearly they could have done 6 million this Christmas. I don't even want to know how many DS' they could have sold this holiday season if they could have met demand.
soundwave05
Member
TigersFan said:
Which store? I was in Calgary when the Wii launched ... it was an absolute mad house. The lineup in front of Future Shop stretched like past the neighbouring restuarant on McLeod Tr. by 6:30 AM. I have never seen a Wii on storeshelves here period. Not at Futureshop, Best Buy, EB, Zellers, Wal-Mart, etc. etc. Some stores do have white/pink DS Lites up here though. I thought HMV had some Wiis the other day, but it turned out they were just empty display boxes.
moku said:
Yes but at least the people that thought that Wii would suck back then, WERE in fact looking at it as a COMPETITOR to the PS3 and 360. Including me. I thought it would do A LOT worse and I was proven wrong and will eat my crow. But to be HONEST back then because the Wii was on a down note, Nintendo and Nintendo fanboys were riding the bullshit line of "but the Wii is in a different market and does not compete with the 360 and the PS3". Just in case it would suck, they had something to cover the suckage up with. So if some people are using that line now, keep in mind IT WAS NINTENDO AND NINTENDO FANBOYS THAT INVENTED IT! However, I never believed it then, and I don't believe it now. I'd much rather just be honest and eat my crow. Because they always have and always will be competitors.
Translation:
When the Wii is on the rise: Nintendo is beating the competition!
When the Wii is down: Wii does not compete with the PS3 and 360. It goes after a different market!
soundwave05
Member
Comparing the Wii to the 360 is sort of like comparing a movie like Shrek or Cars to Batman Begins or something.
Yes, they would be in competetion if they were released at the same time, because they're both movies playing at the same theater ... but there are also major differences in demographics and appeal between the two movies.
So they are in competetion in one way, but not neccessarily in direct competetion.
Yes, they would be in competetion if they were released at the same time, because they're both movies playing at the same theater ... but there are also major differences in demographics and appeal between the two movies.
So they are in competetion in one way, but not neccessarily in direct competetion.
Well, that shouldnt be the case. If the Wii fails, its not becuase the "different" market didnt like it, its becuase the videogame market didnt like it.jimbo said:
Fact remains, wii/360/ps3 are all going after the same market. They may have different strengths in each segment of the market, but its the same damn market.
I also like your post about Wii sales, and the whole 50% comment. I understand where your coming from, but when combined with the doom and gloom talk about Nintendo's future, and all the "find one on launhc day" talk, it really stands out.
The coming months are going to be a big indicator for the Wii's success. Like I said before, its Jan8th, and you still cant find a Wii. If it persist's, could Nintendo have a record January, and where do we go from there in this discussion?
JoshuaJSlone
Member
N64 and GameCube had price drops at 6 months. Early price drops are the norm unless you're the massive leader or lack competition (see PS2, GBA, X360). They CAN do an early one with Wii if they need to. If they don't... well, that probably means it's still selling well and there isn't a need.MobiusPigeon said:
Heh. OnkelC can give some crow cooking tips?moku said:
Interesting point. Considering GameCube's poor early 2002, a decent January for Wii could pretty easily match what GCN did January-February-March-April 2002.moku said:
soundwave05
Member
The N64 as I recall had a pretty decent January 1997 itself, so it's just as possible the Wii could be more like the N64 than the GCN. You don't lose mindshare that quickly. The problem with the GameCube is it never really had any mindshare. How many times did you run into people who couldn't even get the name of the system right? Is it the Gamestation? Playcube? Gamebox? The Purple Thingee? Etc. etc. etc.
I'm pretty sure that if the Wii performs as well as the N64 did in the U.S., they will be happier then a pig in shit. Thats 20million alone just in the States.soundwave05 said:
I think its pretty much a given that the Wii is going to outperform the Gamecube in Japan, and just between those two countries it could blow away the Gamecubes numbers.
If Europe really embraces the Wii, it could be a massive success.
It's all about the next 4months in my opinion. Trends will become set.
(I know what happened with the DS, but this is the home console realm, and it would seem opinion is different here)