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(NPD Estimate) Next Gen Consoles Break 3M in December (Wii > 360??)

E

Elios83

Member
http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4482&Itemid=2

WMS has estimated December sales of 1.3 million Wii hardware units and 600,000 PS3 hardware units (200,000 PS3 hardware units were sold in November). The analyst says Xbox 360 sold 1.2 million units in December.
Image December U.S. retail software sales should be up by 15% year on year according to analyst Wedbush Morgan Securities. In his monthly pre-NPD note, Michael Pachter forecast sales of $1.8 billion, up 15% compared to last year's $1.6 billion figure.

The estimate reflects $927.5 million in sales contribution from new platforms (PS3, Wii, 360, PSP and DS), representing year-over-year growth of $600 million, or 183%. WMS expects current generation software sales of $947.5 million, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of $361 million (-28%).

Sales growth over the last six months has averaged 16%, and WMS is reckoning on 25% monthly software sales growth in January and February.

The forecasts reflect a slight decline for PS2 software sales (-3%), but a much more considerable decline for GameCube software (-67%) and for Xbox software
(-63%).

WMS says the tie ratio for Wii and PS3 leveled out at 2.5 in December, following a poor start for PS3 in November. The U.S. hardware installed base currently stands at 18 million next generation consoles (including handhelds) as of the end of November 2006 (up from 8 million at year end 2005).
 
S

Striek

Member
Wii > 360. Wouldn't that be quite the thread. Cannot wait for NPD.

Edit; And the sad fact is thats a good result for all consoles anyway if it pans out, but uh, thats not quite as GAFable.
 
S

sonycowboy

Member
Wow on Wii, although Pachter is better at SW prediction than HW.

We already know the upper bound of PS3 HW (which Wedbush ~might be over), but looks like a solid enough 360 prediction, with Wii being OMG.
 
S

sonycowboy

Member
Some SW from the report

# We expect December U.S. retail video game console software sales data to be released after market close on Thursday, January 11. We forecast sales of $1.875 billion, up 15% compared to last year's $1.637 billion figure.

# Our estimate reflects $927.5 million in sales contribution from new platforms (PS3, Wii, 360, PSP and DS), representing year-over-year growth of $600 million, or 183%. We expect current generation software sales of $947.5 million, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of $361 million (-28%).

# There may be upside to our overall estimates if PS2 software sales are greater than our $668 million estimate, particularly if consumers opted for the lower priced current generation software. There may be some downside to our estimates if our $268 million estimate in combined software sales for the PS3 and the Wii is too high, particularly if low tie ratios from the "eBay effect" (hardware units sold for resale without accompanying software sales) was as pronounced as it was last month.

# Sales growth over the last six months has averaged a robust 16%, and we continue to believe that contribution from next generation software sales will continue to grow on a year-over-year basis throughout 2007, more than offsetting moderate declines in current generation software sales.
Click to expand...
 
Vangellis

Vangellis

Member
I dont understand what the big deal with the wii selling that much. It should sell the most imo, its the cheapest of the three, its brand new to the market, and its a fun system with good word of mouth. I think the 360 actually did well since its still expensive and its been out a year. Its not the hot thing this holiday.
 
S

Scotch

Member
Vangellis said:
I dont understand what the big deal with the wii selling that much. It should sell the most imo, its the cheapest of the three, its brand new to the market, and its a fun system with good word of mouth. I think the 360 actually did well since its still expensive and its been out a year. Its not the hot thing this holiday.
Click to expand...
Get yer logic outta this thread.
 
M

Magicpaint

Member
Mojovonio said:
not suprised at all. lets just hope the Wii keeps those numbers.
Click to expand...

That's true. Unfortunately, I think the Wii will drop significantly behind both PS3 and 360 in the coming months because of its terrible Q1 line up. Nintendo systems do well in december, so I wouldn't be surprised if it beat 360. We'll see on thursday. :)
 
S

Striek

Member
I find it almost eerily strange that Pachter is (for once) seemingly conservative in his 360 estimate. This can only bode bad for Oddyseus.

Just 4 weeks ago he gave an estimate of 750k for Nov and 1.5-2M for Dec. And he said it could be even higher than that.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Frankfurter said:
I will say wow if that turns out to be true come Thursday
Click to expand...
Wouldn't be that surprising. It's been one hell of a launch for the Wii.
sp0rsk said:
Except the logic is false. We don't like false logic, so please by all means get it out of this thread!
Click to expand...
It's safe to say launching during the holidays with an ample supply, good price and Zelda would provide a substantial boost, no? I wasn't expecting the Wii to outsell the 360, but that's because I thought the supply would be lower.

1.2m for 360 would be more than the Xbox ever sold in a month.
 
H

hadareud

The Translator
will pachter underestimate the 360 for the first time or will the trend continue?

Going by the last 12 months the 360 sold about 900k based on his estimates.
 
K

Kolgar

Member
WHY would it be surprising if Wii outsold 360?

Hellooooooo. Holiday launch + novelty + lowest next-gen price all say hi.
 
P

Pug

Member
Code: 
WHY would it be surprising if Wii outsold 360?

Hellooooooo. Holiday launch + novelty + lowest next-gen price all say hi.

Hello, stop making sense, this is a sales thread you know.
 
S

Striek

Member
RaijinFY said:
Yes but not by a long margin.
Click to expand...
But vs. 2002, Nov up 6%, Dec up 16%? Thats not too shabby.

Solid, but not spectacular.



Kolgar said:
WHY would it be surprising if Wii outsold 360?
Click to expand...
Supply really. That would be bang on 2M sold-through for NA, which was the aim but eh...its still fairly surprising.
 
P

pswii60

Member
Error2k4 said:
so wait now everybody expected wii to outsell everything?
Click to expand...

I did but expected supply to hinder the potential numbers. I didn't think Nintendo could get 1.3m Wiis out there in December, but I did expect them to sell if they could.
 
digita1alchemy

digita1alchemy

Member
cvxfreak said:
Wii > 360? :O
Click to expand...

mushroomcloud.jpg
 
S

sprsk

force push the doodoo rock
GhaleonEB said:
Wouldn't be that surprising. It's been one hell of a launch for the Wii.

It's safe to say launching during the holidays with an ample supply, good price and Zelda would provide a substantial boost, no? I wasn't expecting the Wii to outsell the 360, but that's because I thought the supply would be lower.

1.2m for 360 would be more than the Xbox ever sold in a month.
Click to expand...

Sure the low price may help, we don't really know for sure. I mean, it couldn't possibly be that the Wii is popular because it's the Wii? Is it wrong to think that?

Thinking that everyone was out going "NEED A NEXT GEN SYSTEM JUST GIMME WHATS CHEAPEST" is silly, and thinking that the lowest selling system SHOULD sell more is also silly. I mean, on the same token, wouldn't the 360 being out for a year be just a good a case to explain why it should be outselling everything else? A

These are just predictions though, we won't know till Thursday. I would just like for people to keep the spin to a minimum.
 
R

Razoric

Banned
I guess I missed a gaf memo... why is it a surprise that a brand new system that was the hot item last christmas outsells a year old system if the supply is good? I would fully expect PS3 and Wii to outsell 360 in Nov and Dec if they had enough supply.

Is this mainly fun for trolling or something? Typical GAF bs?
 
J

John Harker

Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
Yea well, its not like Wii > X360 means Wii $$$ > Xbox360 $$$

In case everyone forgot, the 360 costs a bit more money
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
sp0rsk said:
Sure the low price may help, we don't really know for sure. I mean, it couldn't possibly be that the Wii is popular because it's the Wii? Is it wrong to think that?

Thinking that everyone was out going "NEED A NEXT GEN SYSTEM JUST GIMME WHATS CHEAPEST" is silly, and thinking that the lowest selling system SHOULD sell more is also silly. I mean, on the same token, wouldn't the 360 being out for a year be just a good a case to explain why it should be outselling everything else? A

These are just predictions though, we won't know till Thursday. I would just like for people to keep the spin to a minimum.
Click to expand...
I didn't say that. I said it's a FACTOR. Saying price is a factor, along with the games, the launch hype, the holidays and the good supply is not spin. Price is a factor in every thing, and the Wii has an advantage there. I'm not saying it's the main factor, just one of several. And that's not spin, it's trying to understand reasons behind the excellent sales. :\
 
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