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[AgentP]

They have, 47%

Which might suggest a bump from the $99 deals. They've only been above 47% 3 times previously.

Also interestingly, this is Wii's lowest month ever in terms of marketshare, 17%~

Those two are related. If one goes down, the other goes up. Seems to me that MS should do something soon, this is their strongest region and they are dropping fast with the Kinect fad dying. I'm guessing a price drop in a few months to coincide with Sony's new slim +price drop.

 

[Nirolak]

Did it sell a lot during November?

Oh sorry, that's the series as a whole, not just 358/2.

The legs for Days weren't terrible, but both follow-ups cratered even in LTD.

And of course, this is all heavily depressed from the PS2 outings.

I wouldn't be surprised if KH3D has issues due to how Square Enix has handled the brand and the general market reception for the series as of late.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

After 8 NPDs
Super Mario 64 DS: 1,062,000
Super Mario 3D Land: 2,100,000

After 7 NPDs
Mario Kart DS: 998,000
Mario Kart 7: 1,750,000

If reliable NPD leaks hadn't died at the end of 2006, we could compare Zelda too.

 

[jvm]

2.1m for Super Mario 3D Land and +1.0m for Zelda Ocarina 3D include bundle copies?

Yes, I believe Nintendo counts bundled copies when they report sales while NPD does not. I can't find the column I wrote recently where this came up ... there was a place where the NPD-based chart on the Nintendo's website had a different order than the figures Nintendo put into a PR, and I believe the difference was bundling.

 

[Mpl90]

Mmh, a title which sells almost 200k in its first days and then goes over 900k like 358/2 Days...hasn't just "not terrible legs", but good legs. Since it's an RPG, those are giant legs, even.

KH seems to be a good fit for consoles which are not only bought by "core gamers", but by other audiences too, probably due to Disney's characters / worlds being in the game. So, I expect KH:3D doing at least 600k-650k LTD in US in the long run.

However, the only ""possible"" indications about its sales so far are these.

Amazon:

KH3D Collector's Edition 20th for many weeks, now that the release is approaching it's costantly flirting wit the top 10. Instead, the regular edition is 179th. It seems everyone is preferring the Collector's Edition while it lasts, and it doesn't seem something so unusual. Halo 4, for example: the collector's edition is between 40th and 50th, while the standard SKU is 89th.

GameStop:

KH3D Standard SKU 18th in the Preorder Chart, KH3D Collector SKU not available online since some days.

Best Buy:

KH3D Coll. SKU 3rd, Standard SKU 32nd in the Preorder Chart.

Walmart:

KH3D St. SKU 10th in the Preorder Chart. No Collector sold at Walmart.

@jvm: I remember this too, Nintendo counts the bundles indeed.

 

[Nirolak]

Mmh, a title which sells almost 200k in its first days and then goes over 900k like 358/2 Days...hasn't just "not terrible legs", but good legs. Since it's an RPG, those are giant legs, even.

Unlike Japan, RPGs actually have pretty fantastic legs on average in the West.

Dragon Age ended up with over 3x its first full month of sales, Mass Effect 2 nearly doubled its impressive first month, and Fallout 3 ended up with a pretty astonishing over 5x its healthy first month sales, and these aren't actually unusual cases.

All those ended up with very significant totals as well.

I mean, 358/2 certainly isn't bad with legs, and taken in a vacuum is very solid, but relative to Kingdom Hearts as a series is what I'm rating it on.

That the PSP game (not too surprising) and the follow up DS game didn't have good legs at all though is not encouraging.

Edit:

Perhaps to best illustrate this, Diablo 2 only did about 4 million in its first year, but the Diablo series sans Diablo 3 (Diablo 1 + Diablo 2 + LoD) is over 20 million copies. Given that Blizzard's attach rate is about 50% for expansion packs and Diablo 1 wasn't selling sixty billion copies, the legs on the game are one of the best examples of RPG strength.

 

[Taurus]

Is this first time ever during this gen that Sony doesn't give any official press release about these numbers? I was expecting Playstation ecosystem, booming Vita sales with dat oled screen etc.

 

[Mpl90]

Unlike Japan, RPGs actually have pretty fantastic legs on average in the West.

Dragon Age ended up with over 3x its first full month of sales, Mass Effect 2 nearly doubled its impressive first month, and Fallout 3 ended up with a pretty astonishing over 5x its healthy first month sales, and these aren't actually unusual cases.

All those ended up with very significant totals as well.

I mean, 358/2 certainly isn't bad with legs, and taken in a vacuum is very solid, but relative to Kingdom Hearts as a series is what I'm rating it on.

That the PSP game (not too surprising) and the follow up DS game didn't have good legs at all though is not encouraging.

Counting re:Coded on the same level as 358/2 Days and BbS is quite a bit stretching, given its very low importance / revelance.

 

[Nirolak]

Counting re:Coded on the same level as 358/2 Days and BbS is quite a bit stretching, given its very low importance / revelance.

Honestly I feel it's one of the most interesting parts of the sales speculation.

The core Kingdom Hearts fanbase would obviously know that Re:Coded was a cellphone port and a relatively unimportant title, but for people who are buying Disney games for their children, that fact is going to stick out significantly less.

To me, its sales imply that the former group is mostly the one still buying the series, whereas the latter has become notably less interested.

I feel Month 1 sales will basically tell us how many core Kingdom Hearts fans are left in the U.S., and the legs will end up telling us how many general audience buyers there are. Obviously there's some overlap in both timeframes, but it will be interesting to see.

 

[Oxx]

Unfortunately we probably won't see either number.

 

[Mpl90]

Honestly I feel it's one of the most interesting parts of the sales speculation.

The core Kingdom Hearts fanbase would obviously know that Re:Coded was a cellphone port and a relatively unimportant title, but for people who are buying Disney games for their children, that fact is going to stick out significantly less.

To me, its sales imply that the former group is mostly the one still buying the series, whereas the latter has become notably less interested.

I feel Month 1 sales will basically tell us how many core Kingdom Hearts fans are left in the U.S., and the legs will end up telling us how many general audience buyers there are. Obviously there's some overlap in both timeframes, but it will be interesting to see.

But it's not that we see 3D Mario games selling as well as 2D Mario games to the mass audience only because it's a Mario platform game. It's not just this. The importance of a certain game counts, not only to the informed gamer. re:Coded has been released also very late in DS lifespan ( January 2011), while 3D will see the release just during the second year of the platform on the market.

 

[Colonel Mustard]

Kingdom Hearts will be a retail/eshop title, correct? (DD later on though, right?)

 

[ZenaxPure]

Speaking of KH, isn't it going to be on the eshop (at some point? Not sure about launch). I am curious how much that would effect retail sales. Though, I guess that's not just limited to KH, I am pretty interested in knowing how many people actually buy any full retail 3DS games digitally instead. I know personally it would be a case by case thing.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Kingdom Hearts will be a retail/eshop title, correct? (DD later on though, right?)

That's based on conjecture in part due to some ambiguous wording on Nintendo's part. They seguéd from saying that "many prominent titles will be available on the eShop as well as in stores" to "and we've got a lot of third party support coming up for the rest of the year". They put up a slide listing all the big titles for the rest of the year, but it's unclear if that slide applied to the latter point or the former and no one clarified later on.

 

[electroplankton]

Imo, 358/2 Days were pretty good, probably in line with Chains of Memories?

 

[Ridley327]

Speaking of KH, isn't it going to be on the eshop (at some point? Not sure about launch). I am curious how much that would effect retail sales. Though, I guess that's not just limited to KH, I am pretty interested in knowing how many people actually buy any full retail 3DS games digitally instead. I know personally it would be a case by case thing.

Would it be generalizing too much to say that the average JRPG fan is more inclined to go with a retail copy of a selected game than a digital version? JRPGs have always been huge as far as enthusiasts are concerned, and they're the type to prefer physical goods.

 

[Nirolak]

Imo, 358/2 Days were pretty good, probably in line with Chains of Memories?

Yeah it was almost spot on. Just a bit lower.

I would consider the sales of KH 358/2 a success to note.

My main question about it is if it left a lasting impact on the franchise, but there are enough other factors that it is hard to tell.

But it's not that we see 3D Mario games selling as well as 2D Mario games to the mass audience only because it's a Mario platform game. It's not just this. The importance of a certain game counts, not only to the informed gamer. re:Coded has been released also very late in DS lifespan ( January 2011), while 3D will see the release just during the second year of the platform on the market.

Epic Mickey was pretty late in the lifespan of the Wii though and sold exceptionally well during its debut month despite being critically panned.

If this weren't a series that was selling well over 3 million copies at one point and had an incredibly strong IP that has shown sales strength regardless of quality, I would be less critical on the game.

Could KH3D sell over a million LTD? Sure. However, I have to predict based off what has been happening historically, and I haven't seen that many signs saying "This will be a big hit for a handheld Kingdom Hearts game.".

I mean I certainly wouldn't mind if it sold well. I think BbS is the best KH game by far, and 3D is closer to that than any of the others. It's just that I don't think it will due to brand dilution and decay caused by how they have handled it and how the market has been responding to their handling.

They also have done nothing to convince me they're heavily pushing this game marketing wise.

 

[donny2112]

@jvm: I remember this too, Nintendo counts the bundles indeed.

Yeah, they didn't used to. They used to not combine LE/regular of editions of games, too. It was great. You could get a bit of insight into the real separated sales being reported by NPD. Now they've gone way over to the other side of including bundles. They're really desperate for good things to say, in the last couple of years.

 

[FroJay]

This months NPD got me to download a bunch of the Lego game demos (Star Wars, Indiana Jones, Pirates, and Batman), and after playing a bunch of the demos with my girlfriend I purchased both the original Lego Batman and Indiana Jones. Great local co-op fun with relatively simplistic gameplay brought us hours of fun yesterday!

Very cool to see Lego Batman 2 at the top of the charts, we'll probably pick it up down the road as the demo for it was a blast.

 

[Syphon Filter]

Mario kart still a beast.

 

[jvm]

Yeah, they didn't used to. They used to not combine LE/regular of editions of games, too. It was great. You could get a bit of insight into the real separated sales being reported by NPD. Now they've gone way over to the other side of including bundles. They're really desperate for good things to say, in the last couple of years.

It's times like these that I regret not having been around for that. My entire education on sales was basically a crash course in May 2007 and then first column in June 2007. Even then I had trouble tracking down data for certain things, and it's only gotten worse. Better vacuum up every figure you can, because you never know when you'll get another.

Edit: Just realized this is my 61st month writing on this topic. Oh dear. How time flies...

Late edit: First column up tomorrow, big picture stuff. I've got two more columns coming up after that, later this week. See you in the morning!

 

[Hammer24]

Hey JVM, is your article for this month up yet? Oh, and did you get the ASP´s again?

 

[BriareosGAF]

Yes, it's up now:

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/174143/Gamasutras_halfyear_US_video_game_retail_sales_analysis.php

I'm not sure Matt posted enough inflammatory Wii comments this go-round to get his usual bunch of crazy comments, but it's otherwise solid .

 

[jvm]

Yes, it's up now:

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/174143/Gamasutras_halfyear_US_video_game_retail_sales_analysis.php

I'm not sure Matt posted enough inflammatory Wii comments this go-round to get his usual bunch of crazy comments, but it's otherwise solid .

Apparently something is broken on the backend of Gamasutra and the front page news wasn't showing new stories. Hopefully fixed soon.

 

[jj984jj]

Imo, 358/2 Days were pretty good, probably in line with Chains of Memories?

I think that created a problem due to the drop in with the quality of the game it-self though. In Japan one of the reasons KH3D didn't do too well is because now people think KH won't be as good on Nintendo platforms, even though KH3D was developed internally by the Birth by Sleep team this time it was hurt by the poor quality of 358/2 Days.

 

[Hammer24]

Apparently something is broken on the backend of Gamasutra and the front page news wasn't showing new stories. Hopefully fixed soon.

The (hardware) ASP´s you gave are the average for the half year, and not last months, right?

 

[jvm]

The (hardware) ASP´s you gave are the average for the half year, and not last months, right?

Yes but will break out June in next article.

 

[bigtroyjon]

Yes, it's up now:

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/174143/Gamasutras_halfyear_US_video_game_retail_sales_analysis.php

I'm not sure Matt posted enough inflammatory Wii comments this go-round to get his usual bunch of crazy comments, but it's otherwise solid .

and the PS3 still can't be bought for under $300.

oh yeah?

So far in 2012 the average price for the PS3 around $269

 

[jvm]

oh yeah?

Ah poop. Fixing.

 

[Stealth20k]

I think that created a problem due to the drop in with the quality of the game it-self though. In Japan one of the reasons KH3D didn't do too well is because now people think KH won't be as good on Nintendo platforms, even though KH3D was developed internally by the Birth by Sleep team this time it was hurt by the poor quality of 358/2 Days.

That isnt even remotely true.

KH DDD didnt do as well because it launched within the first year of the system while every other title had at least a user base x 4 years.........

365 days was great i thought

 

[shinra-bansho]

"Moreover, consumers have the option to buy less expensive software, and I would submit that this is likely just as big a factor as the shorter tails of new releases. That is, consumers are buying older, cheaper software or seeking out newer titles only when they are on sale."

Describes my current behaviour. Backlog makes me reluctant to buy any more games + older games are cheap now. There are just a few titles I've got my eye out for - and even then, I can probably wait until the price comes down...

 

[Miles X]

Great article JVM, can't wait for things to heat up, wondering who'll strike first with the price cuts

 

[donny2112]

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/174143/Gamasutras_halfyear_US_video_game_retail_sales_analysis.php

Thank you for being realistically depressing. It's better, to me, than to keep hoping for a sudden turnaround after so long without any sign of one.

and during its few months the Kinect sensor add-on for the Xbox 360 appeared to be pumping up accessory revenue.

Should probably be "first few months."

And in 2011, both points cards and figures for Skylanders have been hot sellers. In fact, NPD's Frazier noted that "point card sales were exploding" in 2012 and are up 36 percent from the first half of 2011.

Should be "2012."

 

[jvm]

Great article JVM, can't wait for things to heat up, wondering who'll strike first with the price cuts

Thank you for the kind words. Sony will move first, IMO, since Microsoft has its $100 service contract deal to help for the time being. On the other hand, am I correct that Microsoft cut the Xbox 360 price right before Halo 3 came out, or something similar? That would be an interesting combination this year, no?

Thank you for being realistically depressing. It's better, to me, than to keep hoping for a sudden turnaround after so long without any sign of one.

Thanks, donny2112. I always hope you'll give me your thoughts on the columns. I'm fixing the typos this very moment.

Edit: An editor at Gamasutra made the fixes. Thanks all!

 

[Nirolak]

That isnt even remotely true.

KH DDD didnt do as well because it launched within the first year of the system while every other title had at least a user base x 4 years.........

365 days was great i thought

Kingdom Hearts 3D launched in Japan in March 2012, approximately 13 months after the 3DS launched in Japan.
Kingdom Hearts 1 launched in Japan in March 2002, approximately 24 months after the PlayStation 2 launched in Japan.

3DS install base at KH3D's release: 5,522,588
PS2 install base at KH1's release: 7,628,352

Kingdom Hearts 3D LTD: 320,629
Kingdom Hearts 1 LTD: 840,497

I'm leaving out Final Mix and Ultimate Hits for Kingdom Hearts 1 since it's unfair to KH3D to compare it to the game's re-releases.

 

[donny2112]

am I correct that Microsoft cut the Xbox 360 price right before Halo 3 came out, or something similar?

Yep. Price dropped in August 2007, and Halo 3 released September 2007. They gave it almost 7 weeks between price drop and Halo 3 release. Same timing this year would make it mid-September for a price drop, which actually is reasonable with Sony probably dropping the PS3 price in August.

Funny thing reading the article is that they had a special edition Halo 3 console for $399. This year, they have a special edition Halo 4 console for $399. :lol Obviously different features (e.g. RROD model vs. Slim model; 20 GB HDD vs. 320 GB HDD; no game vs. game), but still funny that five years later, the next numbered entry's special console is the same price.

 

[Miles X]

Yep. Price dropped in August 2007, and Halo 3 released September 2007. They gave it almost 7 weeks between price drop and Halo 3 release. Same timing this year would make it mid-September for a price drop, which actually is reasonable with Sony probably dropping the PS3 price in August.

Funny thing reading the article is that they had a special edition Halo 3 console for $399. This year, they have a special edition Halo 4 console for $399. :lol Obviously different features (e.g. RROD model vs. Slim model; 20 GB HDD vs. 320 GB HDD; no game vs. game), but still funny that five years later, the next numbered entry's special console is the same price.

Wow don't remember that price cut :-S, just the big one in 08 which helped it take off.

I can't see them wanting Sony and the PS3 to break the 360's winning streak, it needs to be a $100 cut as well imo.

 

[donny2112]

it needs to be a $100 cut as well imo.

You mean $50 cut? Don't see Microsoft reducing the Arcade system to $99 or Sony reducing the lowest PS3 system to $150. Doesn't PS3 have that no-HDD model coming out in August, too?

 

[Miles X]

You mean $50 cut? Don't see Microsoft reducing the Arcade system to $99 or Sony reducing the lowest PS3 system to $150. Doesn't PS3 have that no-HDD model coming out in August, too?

I don't see why MS won't/can't cut to $99, the PS3 has reduced $150 since the last 360 cut with a possible $50 with the release of this new model. A $50 cut after 4 years is paltry.

I wonder if the rumours about Xbox 361 are true as well.

 

[JohnnySasaki86]

hey we ever gonna get an update to the original post with the MS PR and PS3 numbers?

 

[shinra-bansho]

Been playing with Google Trends in the PSABR thread and thought this might be interesting to try.

Region: United States

Blue: wii
Red: ps3
Yellow: ps2
Green: xbox

Wonder how much search volume index aligns with sales.

---

For All Regions

(presumably skewed towards English/European countries)

 

[creamsugar]

Vita top 20 SW LTD

01. Uncharted
200k
02. UMVC3
100k
03. Unit 13
04. MLB12
05. MR:RT
06. Fifa
07. 2048
08. MK
09. Rayman
10. Golf
50k
11. R:BS
12. NGSP
40k
13. GR
14. LD
15. DH:A
30k
16. MGS HD
17. L:ES
18. DWN
19. RR
20k
20. Katamari

 

[JohnnySasaki86]

Vita top 20 SW LTD

01. Uncharted
200k
02. UMVC3
100k
03. Unit 13
04. MLB12
05. MR:RT
06. Fifa
07. 2048
08. MK
09. Rayman
10. Golf
50k
11. R:BS
12. NGSP
40k
13. GR
14. LD
15. DH:A
30k
16. MGS HD
17. L:ES
18. DWN
19. RR
20k
20. Katamari

where'd you get those numbers? They just for NA? Pretty sure the Hot shots golf game did much more than that in JP already.

 

[rjc571]

Vita top 20 SW LTD

01. Uncharted
200k
02. UMVC3
100k
03. Unit 13
04. MLB12
05. MR:RT
06. Fifa
07. 2048
08. MK
09. Rayman
10. Golf
50k
11. R:BS
12. NGSP
40k
13. GR
14. LD
15. DH:A
30k
16. MGS HD
17. L:ES
18. DWN
19. RR
20k
20. Katamari

No Virtua Tennis? How sad. Pretty sorry numbers all around, but at least Rayman seems to have bombed less hard on the Vita than it did on other platforms. (I know, grasping at straws here.)

 

[shinra-bansho]

Filling in the blanks...

01. Uncharted: Golden Abyss
200k
02. Ultimate Marvel vs Capcom 3
100k
03. Unit 13
04. MLB: The Show 12
05. Modnation Racers: Road Trip
06. FIFA Soccer
07. WipEout 2048
08. Mortal Kombat
09. Rayman Origins
10. Hot Shots Golf
50k
11. Resistance: Burning Skies
12. Ninja Gaiden Sigma Plus
40k
13. Gravity Rush
14. Little Deviants
15. Dungeon Hunter: Alliance
30k
16. Metal Gear Solid HD
17. Lumines: Electronic Symphony
18. Dynasty Warriors Next
19. Ridge Racer
20k
20. Touch My Katamari

-----

I suppose Uncharted's done okay considering the tiny installed base.

 

[Dalthien]

where'd you get those numbers? They just for NA? Pretty sure the Hot shots golf game did much more than that in JP already.

These are the NPD numbers for the USA.

 

[DGRE]

Vita top 20 SW LTD

01. Uncharted
200k
02. UMVC3
100k
03. Unit 13
04. MLB12
05. MR:RT
06. Fifa
07. 2048
08. MK
09. Rayman
10. Golf
50k
11. R:BS
12. NGSP
40k
13. GR
14. LD
15. DH:A
30k
16. MGS HD
17. L:ES
18. DWN
19. RR
20k
20. Katamari

Can you do the same for 3DS?

 

[MasterSheen]

Does Little Deviants number include the initial bundle?

 

[Mpl90]

Vita top 20 SW LTD

01. Uncharted
200k
02. UMVC3
100k
03. Unit 13
04. MLB12
05. MR:RT
06. Fifa
07. 2048
08. MK
09. Rayman
10. Golf
50k
11. R:BS
12. NGSP
40k
13. GR
14. LD
15. DH:A
30k
16. MGS HD
17. L:ES
18. DWN
19. RR
20k
20. Katamari

For some games, there are better numbers than what I thought, especially UMvC3. Not a good situation, but it could have been worst...and Uncharted, given the installed base, could even be considered good.

Now, cream, please, 3DS chart!

 

[Kusagari]

Awful numbers for HSG and Wipeout.

Surprised by Mahvel being the only thing to break 100k besides Uncharted.