Agree, although I think the day where Microsoft and Sony have to answer the Wii U is yet to come. I'm of the opinion that the next gen launch could go a lot less smooth for both Microsoft and Sony than some people seem to think. I absolutely don't expect either to ride in on a white horse and send shock waves through the industry, especially if they launch expensive and cannibalise each other with a similar launch window. If Nintendo can get their shit together through next year and go into Christmas 2013 with a strong first party lineup and a better price, that could be when Microsoft and Sony have to answer them; as well as each other.
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NPD November 2012 Results [Up6: Black Ops 2, Halo 4, Most Wanted, Assassin's Creed 3]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
Agree, although I think the day where Microsoft and Sony have to answer the Wii U is yet to come. I'm of the opinion that the next gen launch could go a lot less smooth for both Microsoft and Sony than some people seem to think. I absolutely don't expect either to ride in on a white horse and send shock waves through the industry, especially if they launch expensive and cannibalise each other with a similar launch window. If Nintendo can get their shit together through next year and go into Christmas 2013 with a strong first party lineup and a better price, that could be when Microsoft and Sony have to answer them; as well as each other.
CrunchinJelly
formerly cjelly
We used to get them every month until someone stopped NPD making the numbers public...
Captain Smoker
Member
Handhelds won't go away, I don't even know how people come to this conclusion.
Smartphones are going to reach market saturation in two to three years (should be 3DS peak year).
After this the smartphone/tablet market can't grow any further in the west.
And you have to consider that tablet sales are irrelevant because every device works over the same store ID (usually generated with a smartphone, because these are the cheaper devices).
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Was really interested in seeing how Hitman did, new NPD sucks 
SapientWolf
Trucker Sexologist
It's the other way around. I think consumer enthusiasm causes shortages. That enthusiasm just isn't there for the Wii U and they can't force it by failing to meet the current demand.
shinra-bansho
Member
Not dead, but certainly died down. Just looking at those numbers, the 3DS appeared to eat up the market previously buying the NDS (and PSP) significantly in 2010 and 2011, but that market is simply shrinking.
GregLombardi
Member
Well, I wasn't saying they should fail to meet the current demand. I'm essentially saying they should have at least let people know what the heck the thing was. The Wii's marketing effort was like a bajillion times better than WIi U's, and the Wii U is by far a better system for the entertainment center.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Right, so when did 360 & PS3 have their very first BF deals?
3DS is the only system this NPD that sold more outside BF week than during it. Had Nintendo incentivized a BF deal that wouldn't have meant the system was screwed in the least, it just means it probably would've kept pace with everyone else proportionally and been a strong #2 for the month. NOA's obviously realized their mistake given the December deals they're rolling out, you can probably expect 3DS to return to it's rightful position next NPD.
What does this even mean? So when every single person in the west has a smartphone/tablet, things will suddenly get easier? Not unless mobile games start selling for 100 dollars a pop and the dedicated handhelds start selling theirs for under 10.
The hardware game is an means to an end. You want market saturation so you have a market to sell your software. If everyone owns a phone/tablet, the software market will be completely destroyed for dedicated devices. Just like all the other dedicated devices mobiles/tablets have rendered obsolete.
SapientWolf
Trucker Sexologist
I've seen the commercials and the print ads. I'm not sure what more they can do. It's just not as conceptually intuitive or disruptive as the Wii was. They're not purposely sabotaging their own launch because they're concerned that they don't have enough stock.
The 3DS isn't going to be the DS. Accept that and then look at the system again in its own light.
The 3DS was the top-selling gaming system (handheld or console) worldwide in 2011.
The 3DS will be the top-selling gaming system (handheld or console) worldwide in 2012.
So it will be the top-selling gaming system worldwide in both of its first two years on the market. Once you decouple the 3DS from the insane levels reached by the DS - you realize that the 3DS is on its way to having its own healthy lifespan.
I don't agree at all with the idea that anything we're seeing here is related to shortage, deliberate or otherwise, in any way.
But I think Sony already responded to the Wii U announcement. It's the only explanation I have for the current pricing of the Super Slim PS3s: there must have been a price cut in planning to coincide with the new model, but when they saw the WiiU's SRP, they called it off.
Delusibeta
Banned
What? Bollocks. Different makes & brands of tablets/smartphones would compete with each other at that point, it still would mean that Nintendo is getting squeezed out of the market.
Wait for december npd
metalslimer
Member
I doubt it hits these numbers again for at least for a while. This was supposed to be THE game the series has been building up to since it came out. Another game won't have the same amount of hype behind it.
Well I guess I can delay my new year's eve/day party.
pieatorium
Member
It did decently in the UK
bigtroyjon
Member
I think the success of Halo 4 sales will all be about December. You don't launch a game in November just for November, you do it for the whole holiday. Game should easily clear a million in December and I don't think it would be impossible for it to be sitting at 5 million total(including hardware bundle) in just the US by the end of the year.
Which would put it way above what Reach did in 2010 with 2 extra months.
Now if it bombs in December and does under a million, that would have to be a big disappointment for MS and the November release date should be looked at as a mistake.
Which would put it way above what Reach did in 2010 with 2 extra months.
Now if it bombs in December and does under a million, that would have to be a big disappointment for MS and the November release date should be looked at as a mistake.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
Paging jvm for PS3 estimate.
But the Wii had an easily demonstrable selling point which they showed off with easily accessible and appealing software.
The Wii U has none of those things. That's the true problem here. Even Nintendo don't seem to understand what the point of the Wii U is.
I think multiplayer attachment is a far more important metric for Microsoft than December sales. Maybe they pushed it to November this year to keep CoD from stealing its player base?
Joseph Flemming
Member
^This. Finally someone that realizes that the 3DS doesn't have match the DS to be a success. I think sells will pick up in time, that while the 3DS won't be as successful from a pure numbers perspective, it has been profitable since August, and when "smartphone gaming's" bubble pops, people will want to graduate to a dedicated platform.
My wife started gaming on iOS, but has moved on to a 3DS, she got board of fruit ninja, bingo and jet pack joyride.
AHA-Lambda
Member
What??? O__o
This.
EDIT:
Huh? It launched on the 20th, when was the tracking period up to?
Captain Smoker
Member
Which part shall I explain?
AHA-Lambda
Member
This makes dedicated handheld sales easier how? Maybe the smartphone market won't be a growth market anymore but people will replace their phones constantly for newer models, this won't stop the decline of the dedicated handheld.
I don't even know how that makes any sense...
Captain Smoker
Member
This doesn't change anything, this isn't the console market.
The traditional console market works with one device, which get's replaced by a totally new device with new games.
If you have an iPhone 4 and you buy an iPhone 5 two years later (two gen leap) you still have the same App-Store ID and the same games which you can choose from.
Since developers need to make sure that their games work with at least the last two smartphone generations, your iPhone 5 won't get you any benefit (maybe one or two exceptions).
Ok, tablet market has some of it's own games because of the screen-size, but this fact will get diminished in the future by cross-devices like the iPad Mini.
The whole smartphone market works over the individual App-Stores (Google Play, iTunes Store, etc.), this is the main factor, not the sales of the devices (once everyone has one).
Not that I need to notice that the smartphone market can only evolve graphically, because it's bounded to touchscreen/tilt - gameplay. I don't suppose that buttons get common. This will get boring some day.
Interfectum
Member
If Hitman truly bombed that only means they'll move even further away from the classic formula, not towards it.
One more reason Nintendo needs to get that DS library available on the 3ds eShop at a $10-20 price point. Right after they get those GBA games up, right guys?
Uhhhh, only half of cellphone users have smart phones. No way it hits market saturation in just two years.
Even if it did, Nintendo would be the odd man out and it would be Apple vs Samsung vs whoever else.
Maybe, maybe not. That is the path Ubisoft went when Conviction bombed but then again that's Ubisoft. I'd be concerned if they weren't making bad decisions constantly.
Captain Smoker
Member
I suppose it's a timeframe of two to four years (phone subscriptions usually tend to be like two years) (in Europe at least).
Thank you for this insightful analysis of "handhelds are doomed because they are doomed".
And Samsung doesn't sell software, Google distributes it.
Captain Smoker
Member
I see you don't get it and you don't read my posts, so I don't care discussing this with you any further.
Joseph Flemming
Member
Man, when will people understand that the casual market is just that.. Casuals. They are not going to (in mass) jump from fruit ninja to BlopsII, some might be converted, but the casual Wii player turned Zynga or iOS gamer have artificially inflated the numbers over the last six years. Nintendo had a run with them for four years, and free to play did too.. But those models aren't sustainable(yet) even if they were, it's a different market from the "core" gamer. Whoever can convert that casual to core gamer wins. But that margin is small.
That said, I'm a core gamer that watches his systems collect dust between big releases. I want innovation, and gamers like me will be excited when all of the next gen systems are out. It's telling that I spend more on smaller digital games from xbl, Psn, and the eshop(3DS) than at retail.
Ok. See you in 4 years when the smart phone market is saturated!
Captain Smoker
Member
I didn't even refer to Nintendo or this casual / hardcore - debate.
I was just talking about market saturation and the functionality of the smartphone / tablet market, saying that the hardware sales of the devices are not the main factor, the amount of store ID's are, as I explained.
Joseph Flemming
Member
Sorry, forgot to bold your "handhelds are doomed" line, will edit. Then I wanted to transition into how I believe the smartphone market is a new bubble.
Edit) For the record, I think your on to something about the ID's being more important than the platform... Of course I believe they'll be a lot of inactive ID's...
Kung Fu Grip
Banned
Wow wrong thread!
Sorry!
Sorry!
John Harker
Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
I don't know what you consider a bomb, but it didn't come close to Blood Money debut
John Harker
Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
I don't know why I keep hearing that, Nintendo is running A LOT of TV ads for the Wii U. I mean, I don't consider them particularly effective... but it isn't like they aren't spending ad dollars.
BruceLeeRoy
Banned
No PR report from Sony still? How odd
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
I'm anxious to hear about the how the Playstation family is flourishing.
