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[A Human Becoming]

So Vanquish is a super mega bomba.

No that's Tony Hawk.

 

[jman2050]

Umm... you may consider that getting worse before getting better, but to me I hope this never changes. The day that the industry all of us GAFers love and cherish decides to only make what the market "wants" is the day I give up gaming.

Imagine if the movie industry only made what the market "wanted". We would get nothing but blockbuster summer action flicks and romantic comedies all year round.

I am assuming that your definition of "what the market wants" is defined by the number of copies a game sells.

They don't need to stop making what the enthusiast market wants, they just have to not spend gobs and gobs of money to make it. You know, like how all the money in the movie industry is actually used for the blockbuster stuff.

 

[SapientWolf]

Yea, I understand that. My main point is that COD Black Ops made $650 million in 5 days. An executive planning to change course has to prove to her employers that her new strategy can bring in that type of money, otherwise the strategy is not going to work.



I don't think any of the managers at Activision want to hear that Brain Training is the future of the company. No one could have predicted the success of Brain Training before it released because there were no games like it on the market. Compare that to the huge amounts of data we have for the FPS genre. Further, most games made in the vein of Brain Training have not done as well. Even Nintendo made only one sequel. That means that a new game type has to be developed in order to match the sales levels of Brain Training, which again leads to the problem of no available data. Kaijima brought up the 'packaged goods' style of management, and it's important in this context. Activision sells video games the way Dove sells soap. They do market research and look at the data available, and then invest heavily in designing a product that is tailored to the current market needs. Radical experimentation based on hypothetical demand - even at low cost - does not fit into that strategy. And even for companies that are good at it, it is not a reliable means of making the kind of earnings a company like Activision needs.

I don't even know if they do that much. Weren't they reluctant to let IW leave WWII? When was the last time they put a lot of money into developing and marketing a new IP that hasn't already proved itself?

Or maybe the research actually showed that the market needed more GH sequels this year.

 

[hatchx]

To make it more useful:
Castlevania PS3
Naruto PS3
Wii Party ~150k
Kirby Wii ~100k
Castlevania 360
Naruto 360
Rock Band 360
Rock Band PS3
Enslaved PS3
NBA Jam Wii ~50k
Pro Evolution Soccer PS3
Enslaved 360
Vanquish PS3
FIFA 11 Wii
Vanquish 360
Rock Band Wii
Pro Evolution Soccer 360

Combined SKU
10. WWE 225k
XX. ????
XX.Casltevania
XX.Naruto
XX.Wii Party ~150k
15. Rockband 3 140k
XX. Kirby 100k


Some conclusions:

Naruto > RockBand 3 > 140k

Castlevania PS3 > 150k
Castlevania < 225k (#10 on chart)
Castlevania 360 > 50k

Surprising that Rock Band 3 did the worse on wii.
Also surprised Castlevania for PS3 did as 'well' as it did.
Surprised the Move games, especially the pack-in one, doesn't appear to be so hot.
Disappointed in Vanquish. I'm picking it up soon, loved the demo.

Next month will be very telling.

 

[mugurumakensei]

No that's Tony Hawk.

No that's an ultra mega bomba which is above a super bomba such as Vanquish.

 

[Owzers]

Castlevania didn't do thattttttttttt bad.........i bought a copy! Surprised to see the PS3 version of Enslaved sell better than 360, it's obviously the worst version by far. *shrug*

 

[legend166]

I think what it all comes down to is there are simply too many games, focused at too small a market.

Try as they might (and they certainly try), the male 16-35 set simply cannot support all the games they are releasing. Even in what's considered a relatively slow month in October, you've got:

Vanquish
Enslaved
Castlevania
Fallout: New Vegas
EA: MMA
NBA 2K11

Sure, there's definitely a wide variety of tastes amongst males 16-35, but at the end of the day, there's 6 games which are basically confined to a single demographic.

And that's a slow month. So when people talk about spreading releases out through the year, I agree, but you're always going to hit something. There's just too many games.

 

[Ceebs]

I think what it all comes down to is there are simply too many games, focused at too small a market.

Try as they might (and they certainly try), the male 16-35 set simply cannot support all the games they are releasing. Even in what's considered a relatively slow month in October, you've got:

Vanquish
Enslaved
Castlevania
Fallout: New Vegas
EA: MMA
NBA 2K11

Sure, there's definitely a wide variety of tastes amongst males 16-35, but at the end of the day, there's 6 games which are basically confined to a single demographic.

And that's a slow month. So when people talk about spreading releases out through the year, I agree, but you're always going to hit something. There's just too many games.

Not to mention 90% of them have a shelf live of maybe 2-3 weeks. Granted this is a direct result of so many games coming out.

 

[Dr. Zoidberg]

Was it? I was under the impression that they were fairly similar.

It was one of those situations where the average Ham n' Egger wouldn't know the difference but all the technical comparisons gave the nod to the PS3 for having a more stable framerate. Plus it came on 1 disc on PS3 vs. 2 on 360 so that was a pretty obvious advantage that even a casual would appreciate.

The audience for this title is probably pretty informed and has a high incidence of dual-console ownership so I'm not surprised at all that the PS3 version sold more. Plus as I said earlier, PS3-only owners happened to have less new exclusive stuff to choose from this month so the opportunity for these lesser-hyped 3rd party games was larger there.

I think what it all comes down to is there are simply too many games, focused at too small a market.

Try as they might (and they certainly try), the male 16-35 set simply cannot support all the games they are releasing.

I've felt this way for quite some time. There are new games that I would buy and play but cannot because they are putting so many out and have been doing that so long that I have a backlog to last me the rest of the generation. As much as devs and pubs bitch about how expensive it is to make a modern game they sure seem willing to make as many as they can to try to hit the jackpot instead of having smaller teams work on higher-quality games for longer periods of time. I really just feel like they are putting way too many games out most of the year.

Take Wet 2 for example. When I heard they were making a sequel to Wet I thought "Why!?". It wasn't a bad game but it certainly wasn't great and it didn't sell great so why invest a ton of money into a sequel? It just doesn't make sense and it will end up being another game that slips into oblivion in a crowded release list. Then that dev will go under and absolutely no one will be surprised. It's not rocket science.

 

[teruterubozu]

Not to mention 90% of them have a shelf live of maybe 2-3 weeks. Granted this is a direct result of so many games coming out.

Plus most games can be completed in a weekend.

 

[NeoUltima]

Yay, Castlevania wasn't a total bomba. The budget was supposedly somewhat small so hopefully it sells enough to warrant a sequel.

 

[X26]

lots of great games not doing too hot lately...but on the bright side atleast it means some nice deals during the holidays

 

[markatisu]

Surprising that Rock Band 3 did the worse on wii.

Next month will be very telling.

Why may I ask? Every music game always does sub par its first month (since GH3 anyway) and then continues to sell little by little. GHWT, GH5, RB1, RB2, all followed the same pattern.

Not saying it will sell jack shit but not sure anyone had reason to expect RB3 Wii to place 1st out of the 3 systems in its sales.

 

[teruterubozu]

lots of great games not doing too hot lately...but on the bright side atleast it means some nice deals during the holidays

I doubt it. They're all still betting on the holidays. Full price until at least the spring.

 

[Jomjom]

I've felt this way for quite some time. There are new games that I would buy and play but cannot because they are putting so many out and have been doing that so long that I have a backlog to last me the rest of my natural life.

Fixed to apply to me and probably most of GAF.

 

[Version 3.0]

Yea, I understand that. My main point is that COD Black Ops made $650 million in 5 days. An executive planning to change course has to prove to her employers that her new strategy can bring in that type of money, otherwise the strategy is not going to work.

Why do they have to "change that course"? That course is working, for a few games. But there's nothing to prevent them from pursuing more than one business model at a time. In fact, it's irresponsible not to.

I don't think any of the managers at Activision want to hear that Brain Training is the future of the company. No one could have predicted the success of Brain Training before it released because there were no games like it on the market. Compare that to the huge amounts of data we have for the FPS genre. Further, most games made in the vein of Brain Training have not done as well. Even Nintendo made only one sequel. That means that a new game type has to be developed in order to match the sales levels of Brain Training, which again leads to the problem of no available data. Kaijima brought up the 'packaged goods' style of management, and it's important in this context. Activision sells video games the way Dove sells soap. They do market research and look at the data available, and then invest heavily in designing a product that is tailored to the current market needs. Radical experimentation based on hypothetical demand - even at low cost - does not fit into that strategy. And even for companies that are good at it, it is not a reliable means of making the kind of earnings a company like Activision needs.

Not a word of which supports your claim that "publishers can not afford to invest in small games". They can, easily. They may choose not to do so, or try to do so and fail miserably (see Wii shovelware market or the Brain Training clones you referenced), but they most certainly can afford to.
Also, Activision doesn't "need" the kind of earnings they've done in recent years. Their creatively bankrupt greed factory neither guarantees success (though clearly it's working well) nor does it preclude them from pursuing other possible avenues of income. They arguably have more freedom than almost any company to change, because they have the resources to sustain themself if experimentation doesn't pan out.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

Fixed to apply to me and probably most of GAF.

:lol

Yup. I still have to finish Red Dead Redemption and I'm not letting myself get New Vegas until I put Fallout 3 all the way to bed.

 

[Version 3.0]

Brain Training hardly was a small game. The marketing budget alone was more expensive than the development costs of many games.

Prove it. My impression was that the bulk of Brain Training's marketing drive was free, and Nintendo's historical streak of extreme frugality backs me up unless you can show me hard facts to the contrary.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

Is PS3 outselling 360 on multiplat titles a common thing now? I thought it usually went the other way, but here it's PS3 on top for Castlevania, Enslaved, PES, Naruto, and Vanquish.

Pretty sure at least of 7 of the 8 multiplat games in the top 10 sold better on 360.

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

The industry will be fine once it figures out what the market actually wants. Devs & pubs are, unfortunately, still finding this out, IMO. The business philosophy of "Infinite Growth" is just not sustainable.

I think Gamasutra hit the nail on the head:



The business model needs to change (obviously). Every game cannot be projected (on a budgetary basis) to have multi-million unit sales, or else it's a bust. That's unreasonable and financially unhealthy. Just because $60 is the standard doesn't mean every game needs to be that price. DLC has been nice, but I think it's time publishers start experimenting with pricing as well. Let's see how a movie-licensed game fares at $40 initially, or maybe how an annual game, like NCAA Football, performs at $40 too.

The market has expanded to the point where having smaller teams develop smaller games for XBLA/PSN/MobileDevices can be profitable. Again, the business philosophy of "Infinite Growth" is just not sustainable. Not every game is going to be a AAA / blockbuster game with CoD/Halo-level sales.

The GamaSutra quote that LosDaddie posted pretty much sums it up. Publishers have to stop deluding themselves that every game has the potential to be the next Call of Duty. Even if the quality is there (and for some of the games that are under performing, it is) you need brand recognition. You also have to keep in mind that competing with a time sink game is difficult. Even with great reviews and good marketing, people know that splitting their time between five shooters that have leveling systems means they won't get very far in any of them. It is probably going to take a catastrophically poor COD game for people to hop off of that bandwagon. The annual releases don't seem to be a problem for most customers.

I've been saying this shit since the Xbox 360 launched but NOBODY listened to me. Dvader should vouch for me!

The gaming market should already be well past this stage and should be at the next step which is diversifying their cataloger toward all of the variety of hardware out there (traditional consoles, Wii, handhelds, iOS devices, etc.).

 

[John Harker]

Can we even consider Castlevania: LoS a "decent" start?
It's so damn good it be a shame of Konami considered it a failure and didn't let Mercury Steam do another. The gaming world should not be deprived of such beautiful art.

With so many action games doing so poorly these days, who knows.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

Doesn't the >200k number make it the best debut for a Castlevania title here since like, forever?

Do we have Lament of Innocence or early DS Castlevania numbers to compare?

If anyone wants to know, the 360 version is perfectly playable, and it's a really fun game. Not much in terms of replay value, but I think everyone should at least try it, the storytelling and settings are great, and some of the puzzles are genuinely clever.

 

[duk]

I think what it all comes down to is there are simply too many games, focused at too small a market.

Try as they might (and they certainly try), the male 16-35 set simply cannot support all the games they are releasing. Even in what's considered a relatively slow month in October, you've got:

Vanquish
Enslaved
Castlevania
Fallout: New Vegas
EA: MMA
NBA 2K11

Sure, there's definitely a wide variety of tastes amongst males 16-35, but at the end of the day, there's 6 games which are basically confined to a single demographic.

And that's a slow month. So when people talk about spreading releases out through the year, I agree, but you're always going to hit something. There's just too many games.

each of those games are pretty good too, dunno about mma tho

 

[jvm]

Just filed my bit with Gamasutra. I hope it will go up tomorrow ...oh, wait, that's today. Good gravy, I need some sleep.

 

[Kittonwy]

Will Capcom wise up after seeing how Enslaved sold?

The guitar music game genre is officially dead thanks to Activision's milking, Harmonix is going to be in trouble.

 

[gundamzeta209]

I strongly agree with this.

Complaining about Activision, to me, is very much like complaining about Wal Mart. People don't like the practices, but both companies are the natural and ultimate evolution of how consumers have shaped the market place. Consumers, mind you.

In retail, most people (i.e. those that shop at Wal Mart) have little concern for decor or presentation or even the durability of their products: they want the products they want, right now, as cheaply as possible. The ultimate result of that consumer behavior: retail gradually evolves over the course of 100 years, culminating in the creation of Wal Mart, a gigantic company whose entire purpose is to present the products people want as cheaply as possible with no frills.

Similarly, "hardcore" gamers seem to want big, epic (and expensively produced) games. That's why the term "AAA" has gained such common use: because people tend to want event-style launches of major, critically acclaimed, "blockbuster" productions. The end result is companies like Activision, which focus exclusively on a few, major, "AAA" products and pare away all the rest.

Gaming isn't quite as evolved as retail is, now (Wal Mart is so highly evolved that I can't imagine them being superceded, but Activision still could be). But the same natural evolution of the production chain is clear: just as Wal Mart is what most American consumers ultimately wanted out of a retail chain, most "core" gamers want Activision. Both companies ruthlessly and relentlessly cater precisely to the wants of their consumers.

Don't like Wal Mart? Stop demanding everything be ridicously cheap and convenient, no matter the cost. Don't like Activision? Stop asking for big, extremely expensive "AAA" productions. Because both companies are mostly the end result of the consumer's values, not the other way around.

excellent post. Most people have their heads stuck in fantasy land though, and they won't understand logic and reason like this.

 

[gundamzeta209]

I think the domination of FPS on consoles is just a natural evolution of online multiplayer gaining popularity in the living room.


The same thing eventually happened on the PC in the 90's before MMRPGs came into existence. There were all kinds of different niche games on the PC during the 90s, but year after year, FPS online multiplayer began to crowd everything else out of the market.


Maybe FPS is just the perfect type of gameplay for Online Multiplayer gaming? Lag doesn't effect shooters as drastically as they can effect Flight Simulations or Fighting games. The genre is easy to jump into (unlike RTS or MMRPG) but the players still believe skill determines the winner, whether that is true or not. That formula makes for a great competitive scene.


The online FPS is going away soon. Doom came out almost 20 years ago.

 

[Kittonwy]

I think the domination of FPS on consoles is just a natural evolution of online multiplayer gaining popularity in the living room.


The same thing eventually happened on the PC in the 90's before MMRPGs came into existence. There were all kinds of different niche games on the PC during the 90s, but year after year, FPS online multiplayer began to crowd everything else out of the market.


Maybe FPS is just the perfect type of gameplay for Online Multiplayer gaming? Lag doesn't effect shooters as drastically as they can effect Flight Simulations or Fighting games. The genre is easy to jump into (unlike RTS or MMRPG) but the players still believe skill determines the winner, whether that is true or not. That formula makes for a great competitive scene.


The online FPS is going away soon. Doom came out almost 20 years ago.

It has less to do with lag and more to do with how many people you can fit on a map in a FPS versus other game types, individuals can lone-wolf, or team-up with friends, or antagonize their friends, the interactions are much more dynamic in a shooter environment, and you can have that without too much dedication while you're almost always rewarded with some sense of progression.

 

[Kenka]

Just filed my bit with Gamasutra. I hope it will go up tomorrow ...oh, wait, that's today. Good gravy, I need some sleep.

Thanks J, I'm all ready for it. Was probably a lenghty article given the info we got, right ?

 

[Snuggles]

It has less to do with lag and more to do with how many people you can fit on a map in a FPS versus other game types, individuals can lone-wolf, or team-up with friends, or antagonize their friends, the interactions are much more dynamic in a shooter environment, and you can have that without too much dedication while you're almost always rewarded with some sense of progression.

Sounds like MAG is a hit, then.

 

[Curufinwe]

Prove it. My impression was that the bulk of Brain Training's marketing drive was free, and Nintendo's historical streak of extreme frugality backs me up unless you can show me hard facts to the contrary.

TV ads are free now?

 

[Stumpokapow]

Anyone want to take a stab at the massive sales discrepancy between CV PS3 and CV 360?

I'd guess that this is basically the result of Konami/MGS fans buying PS3s for MGS4, and the game's promotional campaign emphasizing Kojima's role in CV. Anyone disagree?

 

[szaromir]

Anyone want to take a stab at the massive sales discrepancy between CV PS3 and CV 360?

I'd guess that this is basically the result of Konami/MGS fans buying PS3s for MGS4, and the game's promotional campaign emphasizing Kojima's role in CV. Anyone disagree?

It's also somewhat similar to Heavenly Sword and God of War 3. Especially the latter built the audience on PS3 for action games (with adventure elements).

 

[Curufinwe]

Sounds reasonable. I can't believe that the slight technical superiority of the PS3 version made much of a difference.

 

[Road]

To make it more useful:
Castlevania PS3
Naruto PS3
Wii Party ~150k
Kirby Wii ~100k
Some conclusions:

Naruto > RockBand 3 > 140k

Castlevania PS3 > 150k
Castlevania < 225k (#10 on chart)
Castlevania 360 > 50k

You can't infer those PS3 and 360 sales for Castlevania because Wii Party "fell further short of his 150k prediction". It could have sold 120k for all we know.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

TV ads are free now?

IIRC, the initial Brain Training push was fairly subdued and the range of TV ads most people think of now came only after the game turned out to be a success.

Nintendo's approach to advertising, especially with more casual titles seems to be a subdued ad push, only followed up with more and more extensive advertising if the game starts to catch on. Of course, there are exceptions - games like Wii Party or New Super Mario Bros. get a big push right from the off - but their attitude seems to be to spend small, and only to start throwing money at advertising when the game shows legs.

 

[Elios83]

I'm glad to see that Castlevania wasn't a bomb, it wasn't a big successs either but it sold decently. Shipments should definetly pass the million ww by the end of the year.

 

[giggas]

Anyone want to take a stab at the massive sales discrepancy between CV PS3 and CV 360?

I'd guess that this is basically the result of Konami/MGS fans buying PS3s for MGS4, and the game's promotional campaign emphasizing Kojima's role in CV. Anyone disagree?

Probably on the money there. I'd imagine it would most likely also appeal to the God of War fan too. Didn't Dante's Inferno and Bayonetta also sell better on PS3? Could be a matter of PS3 owners preferring action games where Xbox owners prefer shooters and such.

And this is a big guess, but I'd guess the average Castlevania fan is probably a PS3 owner and/or favors the system to the 360. Aside from Curse of Darkness being released on Xbox, Castlevania's home on consoles has been on Playstation. I probably fall into this camp because I ended up picking the PS3 version over the 360 one.

Anyway, I was hoping Castlevania would find a bigger audience, but I guess not.

 

[Empty]

What about Enslaved and Vanquish doing better on PS3 than 360? Heavenly Sword fans buying Ninja Theory games could explain the former, but Vanquish doing better, especially after the issues with Bayonetta on PS3 potentially tarring Platinum Games' reputation on the platform, seems a bit weird. Maybe there is just a bigger group of fans of japanese games on that system, the people who bought it for MGS4, FFXIII and DMC4 early in its lifecycle.

 

[Nirolak]

Anyone want to take a stab at the massive sales discrepancy between CV PS3 and CV 360?

I'd guess that this is basically the result of Konami/MGS fans buying PS3s for MGS4, and the game's promotional campaign emphasizing Kojima's role in CV. Anyone disagree?

So far in the DMC/GoW genre in North America:

PS3 Version Sells More:
-Castlevania
-Enslaved
-Dante's Inferno

360 Version Sells More:
-Devil May Cry 4
-Darksiders
-Bayonetta

What about Enslaved and Vanquish doing better on PS3 than 360? Heavenly Sword fans buying Ninja Theory games could explain the former, but Vanquish doing better, especially after the issues with Bayonetta on PS3 potentially tarring Platinum Games' reputation on the platform, seems a bit weird. Maybe there is just a bigger group of fans of japanese games on that system, the people who bought it for MGS4, FFXIII and DMC4 early in its lifecycle.

It's worth noting that given what Vanquish sold, it's probably a sales difference of a few thousand units, so it's a bit harder to make larger scale calls off of that.

That said, I would imagine the Japanese fanbase on the platform has something to do with it, as well as the impact Halo and Fable had in sweeping up sales from 360 owners.

 

[Pooya]

jvm's article

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/...60_Leads_Wii_Slips_Among_Software_Leaders.php

You can't infer those PS3 and 360 sales for Castlevania because Wii Party "fell further short of his 150k prediction". It could have sold 120k for all we know.

oh, that's a mistake I meant to compare it with Kirby (100k) and total higher than 150k but I guess 50k is not accurate since Jam sold less than 50k, it's better than nothing I guess.

 

[jay]

I think what it all comes down to is there are simply too many games, focused at too small a market.

Try as they might (and they certainly try), the male 16-35 set simply cannot support all the games they are releasing. Even in what's considered a relatively slow month in October, you've got:

Vanquish
Enslaved
Castlevania
Fallout: New Vegas
EA: MMA
NBA 2K11

Sure, there's definitely a wide variety of tastes amongst males 16-35, but at the end of the day, there's 6 games which are basically confined to a single demographic.

And that's a slow month. So when people talk about spreading releases out through the year, I agree, but you're always going to hit something. There's just too many games.

I think this is true for not only AAA games, but for all retail games in general. I basically do nothing but read about games all day and when I go to the store I still find stuff I have never heard of. For example, what the fuck is this? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Witch's_Tale I'm sure it's terrible but I try to follow small crappy Japanese games. Who exactly buys stuff like this? It seems the market is unsustainable across the board from 50 million dollar projects to small retail based games.

 

[Kuroyume]

Didn't Dead Rising 2 come out last month?

 

[Sipowicz]

it looks like software is on the decline across the board. i feel sorry for anyone developing new ip's from here on out

japan will be ok because of the 3DS. western publishers will be fucked given the shit they're bringing out for the platform

 

[jett]

Hawt dayum, Enslaved bombed hard. So much for Namco's plans of turning into an uber-franchise.

Take notes, Capcom. :lol

Poor, poor Vanquish.

 

[V_Arnold]

Hawt dayum, Enslaved bombed hard. So much for Namco's plans of turning into an uber-franchise.

Take notes, Capcom. :lol

Poor, poor Vanquish.

That must have been pure comedy gold from the start, because if you want something to become your #1 franchise, you start treating it like one, starting with a 20-40 million marketing budget. Not likely that it has happened with Enslaved.

 

[Rated-Rsuperstar]

I'm surprised Wii party sold so poorly. Nintendo always has that 3 million selling game each holiday and I thought that would be it. I don't see Donkey Kong doing several million.

And its not really related to this months NPD but whatever happened to Wii motion plus? Do any Wii games coming out this holiday actually use it? Does it even matter?

Hawt dayum, Enslaved bombed hard. So much for Namco's plans of turning into an uber-franchise.

The games ending didn't really lend itself to a franchise.

 

[Tiktaalik]

Wii Party sales aren't necessarily that bad. We have to look at the next two month's sales to get a feel for what it's going to happen with the title.

 

[Owzers]

I doubt it. They're all still betting on the holidays. Full price until at least the spring.

The MSRP won't drop but the games will be slashed immensely by retailers.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Wii Party sales aren't necessarily that bad. We have to look at the next two month's sales to get a feel for what it's going to happen with the title.

Dunno - could go either way, but it had a full month of sales and just managed these numbers so I'm not too hopeful. If next month sees it up or stable, it could do OK, but if its down then I think it's going to be a total flop in the US at least (Europe and Japan seem to have taken to it).