• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Official April 2007 NPD Prediction Thread

D

donny2112

Member
NPD Release: May 17th @ 4:30 p.m. EDT (thread posted around 6:30 p.m. EDT)
NPD Coverage: April 8 - May 5


March 2007 HW Results - thanks to sonycowboy

Nintendo DS 508K
PlayStation 2 280K
Wii 259K
Xbox 360 199K
PlayStation Portable 180K
Game Boy Advance 148K
PlayStation 3 130K
GameCube 22K
Xbox n/a


March 2007 SW Top 10 - thanks to sonycowboy

PS2 GOD OF WAR II 833K
360 TOM CLANCY'S GHOST RECON: ADVANCED WARFI 394K
360 GUITAR HERO 2 W/ GUITAR 291K
WII PLAY W/ REMOTE 273K
PS3 MOTORSTORM 199K
NDS DIDDY KONG RACING 189K
NDS SPECTROBES 165K
360 MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL 2K7 165K
PS2 MLB '07: THE SHOW 164K
360 DEF JAM ICON 148K


Potentially significant releases from April 8 - May 5

NDS - Pokemon Diamond/Pearl (4/22), Spider-Man 3 (5/4)
WII - Super Paper Mario (4/9), Spider-Man 3 (5/4)
PS2 - Spider-Man 3 (5/4)
360 - Elite (4/29), Spider-Man 3 (5/4)
PSP* -
GBA - Spider-Man 3 (5/4)
PS3 - F.E.A.R. (4/24), Spider-Man 3 (5/4)

* - Price drop $170 4/3


Japanese Sales April 9 - May 6 - for comparison

NDS - 847,166
WII - 357,514
PSP - 123,341
PS2 - 51,669
PS3 - 48,713
360 - 11,574
GBA - 4,439




My Predictions

1. NDS - 420K
2. WII - 360K
3. 360 - 220K
4. PS2 - 208K
5. PSP - 196K
6. GBA - 112K
7. PS3 - 80K

8. GCN - 12K
9. XBX - 0K
 
Majmun

Majmun

Member
"National Purchase Diary"

At first I was like WTF is this? So...it's just another NPD thread. Never knew what "NPD" meant before.

Anyway...

Wii 260k
X360 210k
Ps3 110k

Ps2 275k
NGC 20k

NDS 470k
PSP 200k
GBA 120k
 
M

mood

Member
1. NDS - 500K
2. WII - 280K
3. 360 - 225k
4. PS2 - 250K
5. PSP - 140K
6. GBA - 110K
7. PS3 - 99K

8. GCN - 12K
9. XBX - 0K
 
T

Threi

notag
NPD = "National Purchase Diary"?

That's not badass....=\

I couldn't care about any of the console's HW numbers
except GBA
...but i would almost pay to see the entertainment that it produces. :lol
 
S

Sharp

Member
I think some of you are underestimating the Wii and overestimating GBA, but I'm not going to commit to anything.
 
V

Visualante

Member
Mr. Pachunga Chung said:
So guys...the PS3 is supply constrained this month right?
Click to expand...
Do you even think they'll bother with a response this month?

New fiscal year for Nintendo right? should see a blip.. maybe the Wii will be a little higher. I might change my prediction.
 
M

Mariah Carey

Member
I don't think I did too bad last time (never went back and checked, though). Let's give it another go:

Nintendo DS: 506,000
Nintendo Wii: 407,000
PlayStation 2: 224,000
XBox 360: 210,000
Sony PSP: 177,000
GameBoy Advance: 118,000
PlayStation 3: 102,000
GameCube: 14,000

I actually predict a very strong April. A lot of systmes should see some bumps (weekly average): the DS due to Pokemon, the 360 due to the Elite, and the PSP due to this being the first full month where the price cut was in effect. The big story, however, will be the Wii, which has seen reports of big shipments not seen since launch--- and launch month had 400k+ sales with only a couple weeks under its belt. The Wii should see a massive surge in sales this month, and hit more than the 360 and PS3 combined.
 
O

Odysseus

Banned
ds 475k
ps2 220k
wii 300k
360 280k
psp 180k
gba 120k
ps3 95k
gcn 15k
xbx 17

so much is contingent upon supplies of ds, wii, and elite.
 
D

donny2112

Member
NPD used to stand for National Purchase Diary (i.e. a log of national sales), but I don't think it stands for anything now. Sort of like how IGN doesn't stand for anything now, but it used to mean Imagine Games Network. Anyway if a mod wants to change the title to the more familiar NPD, I'm fine with that.

March 2007 NPD Prediction Results (main 7 consoles only)

1. Xisiqomelir - 133K
2. Dice Man - 158K
3. the thoroughbred - 166K
4. jet1911 - 177K
5. LOCK - 186K
6. TheKurgan - 188K
7. Miniboss1232 - 197K
8. DSWii60 - 197K
9. Heidir - 198K
10. Bildi - 202K


Congratulations, Xisiqomelir! :D
 
J

Jokeropia

Member
NDS: 625k
Wii: 385k
PS2: 220k
360: 220k
PSP: 195k
GBA: 120k
PS3: 100k
GCN: 15k
XBX: 0k

Increased supply will make many people begrudgingly realize that Wii is here to stay. I predict several meltdowns.
 
T

Threi

notag
Visualante said:
Do you even think they'll bother with a response this month?
Click to expand...

"We here at Sony Computer Entertainment are proud to announce that for the month of April in US we were by far the highest selling blue-ray console, and we predict these trends will continue far into the future because we here at Sony are dedicated to give you a premium gaming experience."
 
C

Chibbi Brady

Member
Going to go a little on the crazy side, bit conservative last month and it killed me.

NDS - 700k
Wii - 350k
PS2 - 250k
360 - 230k
PSP - 210k
GBA - 135k
PS3 - 115k
 
C

CrunchinJelly

formerly cjelly
I think the hardware sales everyone is waiting to see is that of the DS.

Pokemon = $$$$$$$$.

Everything else will be stale and predictable.
 
T

TJ Spyke

Member
Nintendo DS 553K
PlayStation 2 264K
Wii 329K
Xbox 360 235K
PlayStation Portable 171K
Game Boy Advance 162K
PlayStation 3 119K
GameCube 19K
 
R

RiskyChris

Banned
I'm kinda shooting in the dark here...

DS 500k
Wii 480k
PS2 230k
XB360 210k
PSP 190k
GBA 100k
PLAYSTATION 3 90k
Gamecube 15k
XB 0
 
M

Mariah Carey

Member
mabuza said:
i can definetely see the ps3 going below 100,000. anyway this week will be epic :lol
Click to expand...

Anything's possible, but PS3 sales, however small, have actually been pretty steady. I wouldn't put money on it dipping below 100k this month--- there's plenty more months in the year for that to happen.
 
Z

Zzoram

Member
I had to read the title twice to notice that National Purchase Diary had capital N, P, and D.

Anyways, my guess.

NDS - 600,000 (due to Pokemon)
Wii - 400,000 (increased supply)
PS2 - 220,000
360 - 220,000 (Elite should bump it a bit but no huge game release in April to drive up adoption)
PSP - 185,000 (price cut)
GBA - 150,000
PS3 - 130,000
GC - 10,000
 
I

itsgreen

Member
Yeah I'm with some other guys in this thread... they all spin this shit someway... and that makes it less fun, I wish someone would say 'damn we failed this month'

Sony: Highest sells in dollars
Microsoft: Most consoles sold since launch and highest attach rate
Nintendo: The two highest sellers (DS , Wii)

Oh btw, great post Donny, nice to see what happened this month which might influence sells.
 
goldenpp72

goldenpp72

Member
I guess no one thinks guitar hero 2 on 360 is a big release, that sucks.

Anyways for predictions, ill just say the main 3 will probably go wii > 360 > ps3
 
Z

Zzoram

Member
goldenpp72 said:
I guess no one thinks guitar hero 2 on 360 is a big release, that sucks.

Anyways for predictions, ill just say the main 3 will probably go wii > 360 > ps3
Click to expand...

It was a big release, but it's been supply constrained (in Canada it hasn't been seen in retail since launch, any later shipments also disappear instantly) and they've said that the US was also a bit supply constrained. Still, I don't think people would buy a 360 because Guitar Hero 2 just came out. It's something that existing owners would buy, but nobody looking to play GH2 would buy a 360 for it when a PS2 is cheaper and has both GH1 and GH2.

May will be better for the Xbox 360 because of last minute Crackdown and 360 purchases to get into the Halo 3 beta and leading into Forza 2.
 
M

mood

Member
goldenpp72 said:
I guess no one thinks guitar hero 2 on 360 is a big release, that sucks.
Click to expand...

shh Its better when it sneak attacks. There are 400k people on the leader board.
 
J

jj984jj

He's a pretty swell guy in my books anyway.
NDS - 560K
WII - 300K
360 - 260K
PS2 - 310K
PSP - 180K
GBA - 105K
PS3 - 100K
GCN - 15K
XBX - N/A

Pokemon Diamond/Pearl - 1.1 million
 
I

itsgreen

Member
Nintendo DS 630K
PlayStation 2 265K
Wii 290K
Xbox 360 240K
PlayStation Portable 180K
Game Boy Advance 130K
PlayStation 3 120K
GameCube 16K
Xbox n/a

Little iffy on the PS2, but everything else I'm dead on.
 
V

Version 3.0

Member
NDS - 480,000 Pokemon raises weekly avg, but supply keeps it from insanity
Wii - 365,000 Supply ramps up, but not enough
PS2 - 240,000 Still a monster
X360 - 240,000 Elite demand is higher than I thought it'd be
PSP - 176,000 Price drop, but not a good one
GBA - 140,000 Pokemon madness bumps this too
PS3 - 100,001 Nothing to see here...
GCN - 22,000 or here...
Xbox - 360 I hope we get Xbox numbers. This isn't a joke, the math I did spit out this number.


edit: lowered PS3 numbers because of peer pressure.
 
T

Threi

notag
Fine i'll play this stupid game...

Nintendo DS 666K
Wii 230K
Game Boy Advance 101K
GameCube 11K

PlayStation 2 220K
PlayStation Portable 160K
PlayStation 3 100K

Xbox 360 190K
Xbox 17
 
D

donny2112

Member
goldenpp72 said:
I guess no one thinks guitar hero 2 on 360 is a big release, that sucks.
Click to expand...

Guitar Hero 2 on the 360 was released last month by NPD reckoning. It was the #3 selling game last month.

itsgreen said:
Oh btw, great post Donny, nice to see what happened this month which might influence sells.
Click to expand...

Thanks. :) I always liked it when sonycowboy used to include the releases in the prediction thread.
 
O

Odysseus

Banned
goldenpp72 said:
I guess no one thinks guitar hero 2 on 360 is a big release, that sucks.

Anyways for predictions, ill just say the main 3 will probably go wii > 360 > ps3
Click to expand...


games don't boost $400 hardware
 
davepoobond

davepoobond

you can't put a price on sparks
1. NDS - 390K
2. WII - 250K
3. 360 - 200K
4. PS2 - 215K
5. PSP - 200K
6. GBA - 110K
7. PS3 - 110K

8. GCN - 15K
9. XBX - 1K
 
L

laserbeam

Banned
1. NDS - 450K
2. WII - 370K
3. 360 - 230K
4. PS2 - 245K
5. PSP - 175K
6. GBA - 120K
7. PS3 - 100K

8. GCN - 20K
9. XBX - 0
 
S

sonycowboy

Member
Some bonus numbers from last month for you guys. Courtesy of NPD. Underlines how phenomenal the 360 SW is doing, but even more phenomenally the Wii is doing given the userbase. With the PS3 doing the absolute worst in terms of units sold (not surprising given the HW sales).

Platform Contribution - All Categories (includes HW, SW, & Accessories)
Platform Units

PlayStation 2 26.90% 19.30%
Nintendo DS 15.40% 11.90%
Xbox 360 15.20% 23.10%
Wii 9.70% 14.60%
PlayStation Portable 8.70% 8.20%
Game Boy Advance 7.00% 3.60%
GameCube 5.00% 2.70%
Xbox 4.90% 2.20%
PlayStation 3 4.80% 13.60%
All Other 2.40% 0.80%

Composition of the top 100
Platform Total
PS2 30
NDS 28
360 15
WII 8
PS3 6
PSP 5
GBA 5
GCN 2
XBX 1
Grand Total 100

Also, a few SW numbers that I thought might be interesting.

Rank Title
21 360 GEARS OF WAR MICROSOFT (CORP) NOV 2006 MATURE (M)82,465.00
24 PS3 ELDER SCROLLS IV: OBLIVION BETHESDA SOFTWORKS MAR 2007 MATURE (M) 75,138.00

27-32 All NDS (6 titles in a row)

49 XBX HALO 2 MICROSOFT (CORP) NOV 2004 MATURE (M) 49,214.00

50 PS2 GUITAR HERO ACTIVISION (CORP) NOV 2006 TEEN (T) 49,140.00
 
C

chibcicylist

Banned
So Wii has half of the 360's total in the top 100 with less than a than a third of the userbase without counting Wii Sports.

Thanks for the number, btw. Do you accept requests for other SW numbers?

Also, add the letters NPD somewhere in the title. This thing usually have three pages by now.
 
R

RBH

Member
Nintendo DS 550K
Wii 375K
PlayStation 2 240K
Xbox 360 230K
PlayStation Portable 205K
Game Boy Advance 150K
PlayStation 3 110K
GameCube 15K
 
X

XiaNaphryz

LATIN, MATRIPEDICABUS, DO YOU SPEAK IT
Mr. Pachunga Chung said:
So guys...the PS3 is supply constrained this month right?
Click to expand...
Don't forget David Karakker's quote!
Although you can indeed find PS3s in stores currently, we are no where near an "in-stock" position. 300,000 PS3s were sold into retailers the final week of March, so you should see increased marketing support from retailers in April.
Click to expand...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom