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Official April 2007 NPD Prediction Thread

A

apujanata

Member
1. NDS - 500K
2. WII - 380K
3. 360 - 200K
4. PS2 - 200K
5. PSP - 190K
6. GBA - 110K
7. PS3 - 95K
8. GCN - 11K
9. XBX - 300 (if it is still tracked)

Edit : Increased NDS from 440K to 500K (forgot about Pokemon and increased manufacturing capabilities). Also changed some of the numbers based on my actual result from March Prediction.
 
T

Tyrannical

Banned
I wish we had accurate ship figures for the 360 Elite. Most of the reports I've seen / heard was that the elite was mostly sold out the first week.

I can see the 360 outselling the PS3 by over 2-1 for the month.
 
B

Bungalow Bob

Banned
davepoobond said:
if it hasn't been answered already....

the first number is Platform, which means the percentage of the ENTIRE hardware units that are out there, and what percentage is the respective platform. meaning there's 29% PS2s in the total market

the next number is what percentage that platform sells of the total software units sold.

so, it would be perceivably "better" to have a lower percentage for the first number, with a higher number for the 2nd number.

but what you really want is high numbers for both.
Click to expand...

Dave, next time you try to sound sure of yourself, try not to be completely wrong.
 
D

dammitmattt

Banned
CrushDance said:
Like others said. First shipments were low, secondly there weren't really any system moving games this month either. Spiderman 3 was on everything so I don't really see a big jump for that. Xbox will do 250k at the most I think. But due to the elite and trade ins etc it'll be less. It only puses well after a big game comes out for several months then goes down till the next big game.
Click to expand...

But I thought that no 360 games, including Gears of War, are system sellers because it's just the same migratory base of 360 owners moving from one game to another. Right? RIGHT???

NeoGAF needs to stay consistent with the 360 hate.

Also, what do trade-ins have to do with anything? It's not a negative sale.

bmf said:
It's 4 weeks instead of 5 really. I think just knocking everything down 20% is a pretty good start on the prediction. The reason that I don't apply the same to the Wii and the DS is that the Wii seems to finally be getting past it's supply constraints, and I believe that to be the result of increased supply, and as for the DS, Pokemon came out. Plain and simple. As for the 360, I just don't think the Elite's sales were additive, I think they displaced sales of core and premium sets.
Click to expand...

I agree about the Wii and DS numbers. However, I would argue that a large majority of the Elite purchases were not by people new to the platform, but by the existing hardcore of the hardcore owners, which would not be displaced sales.
 
Z

ZeoVGM

Banned
DefectiveReject said:
Just to be different
capturehw4.jpg
Click to expand...

Probably the worst sales graph ever posted.
 
D

DeaconKnowledge

Member
I'm going to be bullish on both the Wii and 360 (increased production on one and a new sku on the other)

DS - 540k
Wii - 400k
360 - 300k
PS2 - 260k
PSP - 220k
GBA - 140k
PS3 - 110k
GC - 25k
XBX - 1k
 
G

Gadfly

While flying into a tree he exclaimed "Egad!"
dammitmattt said:
I agree about the Wii and DS numbers. However, I would argue that a large majority of the Elite purchases were not by people new to the platform, but by the existing hardcore of the hardcore owners, which would not be displaced sales.
Click to expand...

That's what I thought too but when I was waiting to get one, I was the only one getting an Elite as the second system. There was another person in line who was selling his system to his boss and was getting an Elite for himself (still counts as an extra 360 owner in the process. right?) Others were on their first xbox 360 (reason to buy: 1 person Halo, 1 person Too Human). And this was in a very tech savvy neighborhood that I would have expected everybody who wanted an XBOX 360 to already have one.

I have to admit that I did not talk to everybody in the line so this does not really mean much.
 
T

TheKurgan

Member
Here we go...

1. NDS - 550K
2. WII - 300K
3. 360 - 250K
4. PS2 - 250K
5. PSP - 230K
6. GBA - 130K
7. PS3 - 100K
8. GCN - 15K
9. XBX - 1K
 
B

besada

Banned
Nintendo DS 450K
PlayStation 2 220K
Wii 240K
Xbox 360 220K
PlayStation Portable 215K
Game Boy Advance 135K
PlayStation 3 100K
GameCube 24K
 
D

donny2112

Member
dammitmattt said:
do we ever do Top Ten SW prediction threads?
Click to expand...

To do a competent top 10 software prediction, you really need a lot more data than we currently get.

We effectively get all the relevant hardware sales to be able to make educated guesses on the hardware (e.g. 360 sold x units last April, PS2 dropped x units per week from last March to last April, etc.). For software, you really should try to know how it's predecessor did (LTD and month-to-month after release), how similar games did on the platform, adjust past performance for the # of weeks in this release month, etc. The official NPD threads don't give anywhere near that much information, so I don't think we could do much more than blind guesses for a software top ten.

The Sphinx said:
The first number is percentage of total unit sales, the second is percentage of total revenue.
Click to expand...

Xbox sold more hardware than PS3 last month?

davepoobond said:
if it hasn't been answered already....

the first number is Platform, which means the percentage of the ENTIRE hardware units that are out there, and what percentage is the respective platform. meaning there's 29% PS2s in the total market
Click to expand...

So the PS3 has sold 14 million units, just like the Xbox?

Bo130 said:
Do we usually get Pokémon games separated or listed as one?
Click to expand...

All the previous games have been listed separately by NPD.


This Thursday will be insane to watch.

Potentially,
we could have PS3 < 10K a week in Japan and < 100K a month in the U.S. on the same night.
 
H

Hcoregamer00

The 'H' stands for hentai.
Here are my predictions

Nintendo DS: 600,000
PSP: 350,000 (the bump after the price decrease)
PS3: 130,000
XBOX 360: 220,000
Nintendo Wii: 300,000
GBA: 200,000 (die damn you)
PS2: 290,000
 
D

Diablos54

Member
Nintendo DS - 600k
Wii - 350k
Xbox 360 - 250k
PlayStation 2 - 200k
PlayStation Portable - 155k
GameBoy Advance - 110k
PlayStation 3 - 99k
GameCube - 10k
Xbox - 0
 
B

BuzzJive

Member
Nintendo DS 480K
Wii 322K
PlayStation 2 198K
Xbox 360 192K
PlayStation Portable 173K
Game Boy Advance 101K
PlayStation 3 94K
GameCube 12K
Xbox n/a
 
P

Parl

Member
Here's a look at how PS3 sales are trending:

This is based on a per-week basis.

Jan: 48,800
Feb: 32,000 (34.43% drop)
Mar: 26,000 (18.75% drop)
Apr: ?

It's been dropping each month, but the amount it drops has become less and less. The fact that some months are 5 weeks and some are 4 weeks affect the total drop for the month, but as there are 4.5 weeks between the mid-point of Jan and Feb, Feb and March, and March and April, we conveniently don't have to alter the percentages accordingly (It's gone 5, 4, 5, 4 so far this year).

If the PS3 continues to decline in sales, but this rate of decline continues to drop at the same rate, it will decline 10.21% in April, which puts weekly April sales at 23,234, giving the total month sales of ~93,000.

However, Mororstorm and other titles likely helped out in March, so the trending decline probably isn't healing as quickly as represented by March's less devastating drop off, so in terms of this trend, it's likely that PS3 dropped more than 10.21% for April and will have sales of less than 93,000.

Essentially, in terms of this analysis, the more favourable the effect Motorstorm had on PS3 hardware sales in March, the lower PS3 sales will be in April. In laymans terms "Wow, even with Motorstorm, PS3 still dropped another 18.75%?! Don't expect this downward trend to end anytime soon!"

Also, increased competition from the Elite could have caused bigger drops for PS3 in April.

If PS3 sales magically stopped its declining and had the same average week-on-week as March, then PS3 will achieve 104,000 in April.
 
P

Parl

Member
PS3 vs GBA sales trend:

Feb: GBA wins
Mar: GBA wins
Apr: ?

This trend shows a 100% chance of GBA winning for April.
 
L

Link316

Banned
PlayStation Portable 300K
Nintendo DS 299K
PlayStation 2 250K
PlayStation 3 200K
Xbox 360 199K
Wii 199K
Game Boy Advance 100K
GameCube 15K
Xbox n/a

PSP gets bump from price cut, PS3 & 360 get a bump thanX to tax refunds
 
D

Dalthien

Member
sonycowboy said:
Some bonus numbers from last month for you guys. Courtesy of NPD. Underlines how phenomenal the 360 SW is doing, but even more phenomenally the Wii is doing given the userbase. With the PS3 doing the absolute worst in terms of units sold (not surprising given the HW sales).

Platform Contribution - All Categories (includes HW, SW, & Accessories)
Platform Units

PlayStation 2 26.90% 19.30%
Nintendo DS 15.40% 11.90%
Xbox 360 15.20% 23.10%
Wii 9.70% 14.60%
PlayStation Portable 8.70% 8.20%
Game Boy Advance 7.00% 3.60%
GameCube 5.00% 2.70%
Xbox 4.90% 2.20%
PlayStation 3 4.80% 13.60%
All Other 2.40% 0.80%

Composition of the top 100
Platform Total
PS2 30
NDS 28
360 15
WII 8
PS3 6
PSP 5
GBA 5
GCN 2
XBX 1
Grand Total 100
Click to expand...
donny2112 said:
Xbox sold more hardware than PS3 last month?
Click to expand...
I think what Sphinx was saying was that the first percentage is the number of total units sold (hardware + software + accessories all added together), and the second percentage is the total revenue sold (hardware + software + accessories all added together).

At least that's what I took from the numbers that Sonycowboy posted, and the numbers seem to make sense in that respect. Maybe he'll drop in again to help clarify the numbers.
 
B

Beef

Member
1. Nintendo DS 450K
2. PlayStation 2 250K
3. Wii 230K
4. PlayStation Portable 220K
5. Xbox 360 (W/ Elite) 215K
6. PlayStation 3 160K
7. Game Boy Advance 110K

8. GameCube 15K
9. Xbox 0
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Nintendo DS 450k
PlayStation 2 220k
Wii 350k
Xbox 360 210k
PlayStation Portable 260k
Game Boy Advance 120k
PlayStation 3 90k

Yeah, I'm going there. PS3 < 100k.
 
J

JavyOO7

Member
This will be a tough month to predict. Pokemon... Elite... Super Paper Mario...

DS: 550K
Wii: 400k
X360: 265k
PS3: 95k
GBA: 190k
PSP: 250k
PS2: 265k

Not feeling too hot about these numbers. We'll see...
 
C

Crypto

Banned
my predictions

Nintendo DS 480K
PlayStation 2 200K (no god of war 2)
Wii 220K (shortages)
Xbox 360 220K (elite)
PlayStation Portable 200K (price drop)
Game Boy Advance 120K
PlayStation 3 100K
GameCube 18K
Xbox n/a

I feel a little less confident this round, there's been quite a few small things.
 
H

hadareud

The Translator
alright then:

DS 505,000
Wii 325,000
360 275,000
PS2 270,000
PSP 195,000
GBA 130,000
PS3 105,000
GC 10,000
Xbox >1,000
 
J

Jammy

Banned
NDS - 550,000
Wii - 405,000
360 - 280,000
PSP - 265,000
PS2 - 220,000
GBA - 130,000
PS3 - 97,000
GC - 20,000
XBX - N/A

EDIT: I forgot the March NPD was one week longer, so I reduced my GBA and PS2 totals a tad.
 
L

LJ11

Member
GhaleonEB said:
Nintendo DS 450k
PlayStation 2 220k
Wii 350k
Xbox 360 210k
PlayStation Portable 260k
Game Boy Advance 120k
PlayStation 3 90k

Yeah, I'm going there. PS3 < 100k.
Click to expand...

fixed.

PS2 240k
Wii 320k
360 225k
PSP 245k
PS3 75k
DS - As many as the shipped or 435k
 
D

djtiesto

is beloved, despite what anyone might say
NDS: 655,000
Wii: 430,000
PS2: 260,000
PSP: 240,000
360: 225,000
GBA: 120,000
PS3: 105,000
GC: 15,000
Xbox: 3000
 
womfalcs3

womfalcs3

Banned
And the winning projection is...


Nintendo DS - 520k
Wii - 400k
PlayStation 2 - 220k
Xbox 360 - 200k
PlayStation Portable - 155k
PlayStation 3 - 130k
GameBoy Advance - 125k
GameCube - 9k
Xbox - 0
 
E

Evlar

Banned
Parl said:
Here's a look at how PS3 sales are trending:

This is based on a per-week basis.

Jan: 48,800
Feb: 32,000 (34.43% drop)
Mar: 26,000 (18.75% drop)
Apr: ?

It's been dropping each month, but the amount it drops has become less and less. The fact that some months are 5 weeks and some are 4 weeks affect the total drop for the month, but as there are 4.5 weeks between the mid-point of Jan and Feb, Feb and March, and March and April, we conveniently don't have to alter the percentages accordingly (It's gone 5, 4, 5, 4 so far this year).

If the PS3 continues to decline in sales, but this rate of decline continues to drop at the same rate, it will decline 10.21% in April, which puts weekly April sales at 23,234, giving the total month sales of ~93,000.

However, Mororstorm and other titles likely helped out in March, so the trending decline probably isn't healing as quickly as represented by March's less devastating drop off, so in terms of this trend, it's likely that PS3 dropped more than 10.21% for April and will have sales of less than 93,000.

Essentially, in terms of this analysis, the more favourable the effect Motorstorm had on PS3 hardware sales in March, the lower PS3 sales will be in April. In laymans terms "Wow, even with Motorstorm, PS3 still dropped another 18.75%?! Don't expect this downward trend to end anytime soon!"

Also, increased competition from the Elite could have caused bigger drops for PS3 in April.

If PS3 sales magically stopped its declining and had the same average week-on-week as March, then PS3 will achieve 104,000 in April.
Click to expand...
Interesting. Very interesting.

Just to satisfy my curiousity I ran a similar analysis of the Japanese numbers. I took the MC numbers for every week, added them up to 4 or 5 week months to correspond with the NPD polling periods, found an average per-week sales rate for each of those periods, and then calculated the percentage drop for each. It looks like this:

December: 60,232 weekly average
January: 31,061 weekly average (48.4% drop)
February: 26,856 weekly average (13.6% drop)
March: 21,124 weekly average (21.3% drop)
April: 12,178 weekly average (42.3% drop!)

You may notice the February drop was rather small, and the April drop is huge. This is because of the Gundabump in late February and early March (release of Gundam Musou, the biggest PS3 game in Japan to date). There is no equivalent release in the US. Once again out of curiousity I artificially removed the Gundabump weeks, recalculated the averages, and came up with this:

December: 60,232 weekly average
January: 31,061 weekly average (48.4% drop)
February: 21,141 weekly average (31.9% drop)
March: 17,289 weekly average (18.2% drop)
April: 12,178 weekly average (29.6% drop)

Now the rate of decreased sales from January thru March in Media-Create data match the NPD trends rather closely. 32% drop in February, 18% in March. In April the rate of decline actually picks up, to nearly 30%, despite a holiday week we don't have in the US. If the US market were to behave in a similar manner we would predict weekly sales of ~18,304, or only ~73,216 sales for the month.

Granted, the US market isn't exactly like the Japanese market, but with the exception of the Gundabump they have been behaving in a similar manner toward the PS3 up to this point.
 
F

Freki

Member
Nintendo DS 530K
Wii 250K
PlayStation 2 240K
Xbox 360 205K
PlayStation Portable 180K
Game Boy Advance 138K
PlayStation 3 99K (yes i went this far)
GameCube 20K
Xbox 100
 
F

fanduck

Member
Here it goes...
Nintendo DS - 600K
Nintendo Wii - 350K
Playstation 2 - 250K
Xbox 360 - 250K
PSP - 180K
GBA - 112K
PS3 - 100K
 
S

snakeater

Member
My projections: DS sells a lot, Wii continues to make good numbers and 360 numbers rise due to elite sales, overcomingo those of PS2. PSP sales also rise.

1. Nintendo DS 540K
2. Wii 330K
3. Xbox 360 280K
4. PlayStation Portable 250K
5. PlayStation 2 230K
6. PlayStation 3 150K
7. Game Boy Advance 90K
8. GameCube 10K
9. Xbox 0K
 
M

Meier

Member
Link316 said:
PlayStation Portable 300K
Nintendo DS 299K
PlayStation 2 250K
PlayStation 3 200K
Xbox 360 199K
Wii 199K
Game Boy Advance 100K
GameCube 15K
Xbox n/a

PSP gets bump from price cut, PS3 & 360 get a bump thanX to tax refunds
Click to expand...

My prediction is that Link316 wins with these predictions.
 
B

bycha

Junior Member
Nintendo DS 800K
Wii 420K

PlayStation 2 270K
PlayStation Portable 230K

Xbox 360 220K

Game Boy Advance 130K
PlayStation 3 120K
GameCube 20K
 
K

Kiljaro

Member
1. NDS - 600K
2. WII - 280K
3. 360 - 250K
4. PS2 - 240K
5. PSP - 230K
6. GBA - 115K
7. PS3 - 100K

8. GCN - 10K
9. XBX - 0K
 
S

Sgt. Killjoy

Member
Nintendo DS 500k
Playstation 2 250k
Wii 285k
360 290k
Playstation Portable 150k
GBA 130k
PS3 100k
Gamecube 13,000
Xbox (why do people still include this?)

donny2112 said:
NPD Release: May 17th @ 4:30 p.m. EDT (thread posted around 6:30 p.m. EDT)
NPD Coverage: April 8 - May 5


March 2007 HW Results - thanks to sonycowboy

Nintendo DS 508K
PlayStation 2 280K
Wii 259K
Xbox 360 199K
PlayStation Portable 180K
Game Boy Advance 148K
PlayStation 3 130K
GameCube 22K
Xbox n/a


March 2007 SW Top 10 - thanks to sonycowboy

PS2 GOD OF WAR II 833K
360 TOM CLANCY'S GHOST RECON: ADVANCED WARFI 394K
360 GUITAR HERO 2 W/ GUITAR 291K
WII PLAY W/ REMOTE 273K
PS3 MOTORSTORM 199K
NDS DIDDY KONG RACING 189K
NDS SPECTROBES 165K
360 MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL 2K7 165K
PS2 MLB '07: THE SHOW 164K
360 DEF JAM ICON 148K


Potentially significant releases from April 8 - May 5

NDS - Pokemon Diamond/Pearl (4/22), Spider-Man 3 (5/4)
WII - Super Paper Mario (4/9), Spider-Man 3 (5/4)
PS2 - Spider-Man 3 (5/4)
360 - Elite (4/29), Spider-Man 3 (5/4)
PSP* -
GBA - Spider-Man 3 (5/4)
PS3 - F.E.A.R. (4/24), Spider-Man 3 (5/4)

* - Price drop $170 4/3


Japanese Sales April 9 - May 6 - for comparison

NDS - 847,166
WII - 357,514
PSP - 123,341
PS2 - 51,669
PS3 - 48,713
360 - 11,574
GBA - 4,439




My Predictions

1. NDS - 420K
2. WII - 360K
3. 360 - 220K
4. PS2 - 208K
5. PSP - 196K
6. GBA - 112K
7. PS3 - 80K

8. GCN - 12K
9. XBX - 0K
Click to expand...
 
Chiggs

Chiggs

Member
Nintendo DS: 1.2k - Pokemon!
PSP: 890k - April Momentum + Price Drop + Tax returns
PS3: 745k - April Momentum + Tax returns + Home and LBP on the Horizon--and these will attract the casuals, believe me!
Nintendo Wii: 125k - Can't find them in stores
Xbox 360: 75k - Nobody likes the Elite on GAF, so it won't sell.
 
K

Kiljaro

Member
Chiggs said:
Nintendo DS: 1.2k - Pokemon!
PSP: 890k - April Momentum + Price Drop + Tax returns
PS3: 745k - April Momentum + Tax returns + Home and LBP on the Horizon--and these will attract the casuals, believe me!
Nintendo Wii: 125k - Can't find them in stores
Xbox 360: 75k - Nobody likes the Elite on GAF, so it won't sell.
Click to expand...
:lol
 
K

Kurosaki Ichigo

Member
Predictions
NDS - 450.000
360 - 300.000
WII - 275.000
PS2 - 225.000
PSP - 150.000
GBA - 125.000
PS3 - 100.000


Just felt like doing them in 25k intervals, ex-ioi style. Getting Nintendo hardware right is like a lottery anyway...
 
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