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Official March 2007 NPD Prediction Thread

A

arne

Member
Jokeropia said:
Yeah if you want to make the case that shipments might've been lower in March I can see where you're coming from, but that didn't seem to be what Nameless implied with his statement.
Click to expand...


You're right. My bad. He's wrong. They haven't gone down month to month (and 2 months can hardly be considered a trend even if it was!)
 
L

LOCK

Member
NDS - 500,000
WII - 330,000
PS2 - 255,000
360 - 250,000
PSP - 190,000
GBA - 150,000
PS3 - 149,000
GCN - 25,000

Tiger Woods PGA Tour 07 - 100,000
The Godfather: Blackhand Edition - 35,000
God of War 2 - 750,000
GRAW 2 - 350,000
Guitar Hero II - 400,000
Motorstorm - 70,000
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Allow me to submit Wedbush Morgan's prediction to the mix:

Wii 400,000
PS3 165,000
Xbox 360 250,000
PS2 250,000
PSP 210,000
DS 250,000
GBA 165,000
 
P

Parl

Member
Finally. Now we have analyst numbers from Pachter, we can better predict NPD.

Wii: 320,004
DS: 320,003
PS3: 164,520
Xbox: 360: 249,000
PS2: 264,234
PSP: 210,935
GBA: 161,503

Real predictions:

NDS: 480,000
Wii: 385,000
PS2: 355,000
360: 280,000
PSP: 220,000
GBA: 160,000
PS3: 160,000
NGC: 30,000
Xbx: 600
 
H

Hcoregamer00

The 'H' stands for hentai.
Parl said:
Finally. Now we have analyst numbers from Pachter, we can better predict NPD.

Wii: 320,004
DS: 320,003
PS3: 164,520
Xbox: 360: 249,000
PS2: 264,234
PSP: 210,935
GBA: 161,503
Click to expand...

But patcher has been off, way off.

:)
 
P

Parl

Member
Hcoregamer00 said:
But patcher has been off, way off.

:)
Click to expand...

Exactly. Although I have faith in the guy this month. I think he'll be less than 700k off for the total difference for each system, so for Wii and DS, I haven't avoided his numbers as much as I have previously.

The guy didn't used to predict less anticipated numbers and when his "previews" came through, I was satisified if my numbers were way off his. But now, he predicts the safe numbers too.
 
E

Epigamic

Member
Is GAF better than Pachter? Here's a comparison of the collective GAF estimates to Pachter's. All numbers, with the exception of N (number of estimates), are in thousands. Joke estimates were ignored.

Code: 
	N	Median	Mean	Pachter
Wii	103	335	332	400
DS	98	437	448	250
X360	103	250	251	250
PS2	94	280	280	250
PS3	102	150	155	165
PSP	95	206	205	210
GBA	87	140	137	165
GC	56	21	21	
Xbox	50	0.5	0.7

Bring on Thursday...
 
J

JoshuaJSlone

Member
My beginning-of-the-year prediction for March:
Wii: 360K
DS: 294K
PS3: 197K
X360: 192K
PS2: 191K
PSP: 167K
GBA: 121K
Click to expand...
Hmm. Not totally awful. Now current predictions:
DS: 394K
Wii: 360K
PS2: 291K
X360: 232K
PSP: 217K
GBA: 161K
PS3: 157K
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Epigamic said:
Code: 
	N	Median	Mean	Pachter
Wii	103	335	332	400
DS	98	437	448	250
X360	103	250	251	250
PS2	94	280	280	250
PS3	102	150	155	165
PSP	95	206	205	210
GBA	87	140	137	165
GC	56	21	21	
Xbox	50	0.5	0.7

Bring on Thursday...
Click to expand...
We only really differ by any substantial margin on the DS and Wii. I think Pachter's going to get murdered on that DS prediciton.
 
T

Tf53

Member
Oh, there goes my virginity. Guess there's a first time for everything, huh?

DS 510,000
Wii 370,000
PS2 350,000
360 290,000
PSP 230,000
GBA 150,001
PS3 150,000
 
B

Brak

Member
GhaleonEB said:
We only really differ by any substantial margin on the DS and Wii. I think Pachter's going to get murdered on that DS prediciton.
Click to expand...
What the hell was he thinking? Maybe because there weren't any big releases on DS in March, but I really don't think that's a factor at this point.
 
C

Crypto

Banned
My first predictions...

DS : 400k
Wii : 290k (based on what that GS COO said)
360 : 200k
PS3 : 160k
PS2 : 200k
PSP : 260k (price cut)

I think it was a meh month...
 
S

seattle6418

Member
hardware:

Wii - 325k
360 - 243k
PS3 - 172k

DS - 419k
PSP - 225k
GBA - 168k

PS2 - 281k
XBOX - 1k
GC - 19k

software:

God of War II - 1.1 million
MLB the show (PS2) - 520k
GTA VCS - 490k
GRAW2 - 475k
TNMT - (PS2) 310k
MLB 2k7 (360) - 300k
Burnout Dominator - 270k
Tiger woods - 245k
Guitar Hero II - 222k
Motorstorm - 190k
Crackdown - 185k
Diddiy kong Racing - 170k
Wii play - 170k
Guitar Hero II (PS2) - 150k

but maybe i´m inflating the software sales:)
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Brak said:
What the hell was he thinking? Maybe because there weren't any big releases on DS in March, but I really don't think that's a factor at this point.
Click to expand...
He must have thought it was supply constrained. But even so, to predict half of February's sales, when there's an extra week in the March reporting period - delusional.
 
U

underfooter

Banned
I didn't look at anyone elses before predicting these:


DS- 450k
Wii- 250k (shortages)
360- 205k
PS3- 165k
PSP- 100k
PS2- 200k
N-gage- 456
 
J

justchris

Member
Brak said:
What the hell was he thinking? Maybe because there weren't any big releases on DS in March, but I really don't think that's a factor at this point.
Click to expand...

I stand by my prediction of fairly high DS sales. Nintendo started advertising Pokemon on tv, on Saturday mornings (so I watch Saturday morning cartoons, get over it) before the end of March with "only on Nintendo DS" prominent. A lot of people will have bought it in preparation for that, I believe.
 
S

starship

psycho_snake's and The Black Brad Pitt's B*TCH
Prediction:

Wii - 365k
DS - 320k
PS2 - 275k
X360 - 260k
PSP - 210k
PS3 - 200k
GBA - 160k
GC - 20k
Xbox - 500
 
F

fresquito

Member
Heh, I'm new to NPD predictions. Here they go:

NDS: 455k
Wii: 360k
PS2: 330k
360: 270k
PSP: 215k
GBA: 155k
PS3: 145k
GC: 25k
Xbox: 400
 
K

Kosma

Banned
DS 400k
Wiieeak 400k
PSP 275k <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< *longshot*
PS2 250k
3"red lights"60 250k
PStriple 200k
GBA 50k

*Puts money on the longshot*
 
D

DayShallCome

Member
NDS - 455K (Still supply constrained)
WII - 366K (Also supply constrained)
360 - 287K (Solid lineup of releases, maintains solid momentum)
PS2 - 270K (GoWII + GTA:VCStories make this last month before sharp declines)
PSP - 255K (Wildcard... did impending price drop affect sales?)
PS3 - 176K (The month that EVERYONE figures out that PS3 will simply NEVER sell at 600$)
GBA - 160K (PS3 wins... this time)
 
B

Burnst

Member
Lets hope for a

meltdown2.gif
 
V

valkillmore

Member
oh my god i almost had a POOP when i saw this thread had been bumped, i thought the numbers were in! but we're waiting until tomorrow evening, right?

my predictions:

Wii 375,000
Xbox 360 - 240,000
DS - 300,000
PS3 - 140,000 (yeah that's right Motorstorm fanboys, no bump for you)
 
M

Miniboss1232

Member
My first predictions evar:

NDS - 575,000
WII - 325,000
PS2 - 275,000
360 - 225,000
PSP - 175,000
GBA - 125,000
PS3 - 125,000
GCN - 25,000
XBX - 300

My general methodology is that the DS and Wii are basically selling everything that's shipped.

Trends seem to state that Nintendo is shipping just a few units units of both the DS and the Wii to the US than Japan, so I'm just taking the Japanese numbers for both systems and incrementing them by about 25k. Wii hardware will probably be a bit lower than my predictions, while DS hardware will probably be a bit higher.

As for everything else, I'm going to say that the numbers are roughly equivalent to the February numbers. While the month was longer (5 weeks compared to 4 weeks), March is generally considered to be slower. And so for hardware that's not supply constrained, I would expect them to stay about level. However, I wouldn't be surprised if my PS2, 360, PSP, GBA, and PS3 predictions were 25,000 units lower than what actually was sold.
 
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