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Official May 2007 NPD Prediction Thread

B

Brak

Member
Doesn't NPD always release data on thursday?

EDIT: Whoops, the 14th is a thursday.... was looking at May.
 
A

_Alkaline_

Member
Sho_Nuff82 said:
[NDS] 450k
[WII] 275k
[360] 200K
[PS2] 225K
[PSP] 200k
[GBA] 75K
[PS3] 75K
[GCN] 10K
[XBX] 1k

I lowballed the Wii because the Japanese shipments over the same time period were just over 250k, so it seems like it was a low output month for Nintendo, unless they managed to re-shift resources for some reason. The 360 should stabilize to its 50k/week numbers now that Elite speculation, release, and fanfare has come, gone, and subsided.

Some software numbers:

Pokemon Diamond/Pearl - 600k/550k
Mario party 8 - 500k 0_o
Forza 2 - 350k
Wii Play - 200k
Super Paper Mario - 175k
Command & Conquer 3 - 175k
Guitar Hero 2 - 150k
Shadowrun - 100k
Crackdown - 100k

Forgot Spiderman/Pirates/Shrek garbage. Expect all to blow up on 360/PS2.
Click to expand...

There's no way Mario Party will get 500k. Paper Mario only did about 350k, and that game received a lot more hype. Of course I could be wrong, but still.
 
Eteric Rice

Eteric Rice

Member
Alkaliine said:
Why did you predict Wii then?
Click to expand...

Despite it's hardware, the Wii is a part of this generation.

Though I wish people would simply call it "current generation" now. Next gen isn't coming again until around 4 - 6 years from now. :|

And...

[WII] 400k
[360] 185k
[PS3] 89k
[NDS] 480k
[PSP] 180k
 
S

Sho_Nuff82

Member
Alkaliine said:
There's no way Mario Party will get 500k. Paper Mario only did about 350k, and that game received a lot more hype. Of course I could be wrong, but still.
Click to expand...

Its loaded with minigames, it has Mario in the title, and there are +250k new Wii owners. Do the math. All of the GCN versions sold well, and Wii games seem to be outperforming their GCN counterparts thus far, so I've no doubt that Mario Party 8 will shock all of us.
 
A

_Alkaline_

Member
Sho_Nuff82 said:
Its loaded with minigames, it has Mario in the title, and there are +250k new Wii owners. Do the math. All of the GCN versions sold well, and Wii games seem to be outperforming their GCN counterparts thus far, so I've no doubt that Mario Party 8 will shock all of us.
Click to expand...

Hmm, well don't forget it only had a few days on the market before these NPD numbers ended.
 
G

Grampa Simpson

Banned
Eteric Rice said:
Despite it's hardware, the Wii is a part of this generation.

Though I wish people would simply call it "current generation" now. Next gen isn't coming again until around 4 - 6 years from now. :|
Click to expand...
As for the Wii being last gen, the joke itself is paleolithic, and the grounds upon which the actual statement rests on are very shaky indeed. The actual use of the joke is almost a sure sign of a Microsoft or Sony fanboy who feels threatened by Nintendo's newly regained place of dominance in the sales charts.
 
S

sprsk

force push the doodoo rock
[PS2] 200k
[PSP] 170k
[PS3] 100k
[360] 200k
[GBA] 120k
[NGC] 10k
[NDS] 430k
[WII] 370k

I am so pulling these numbers out of my ass.
 
A

_Alkaline_

Member
sp0rsk said:
[PS2] 200k
[PSP] 170k
[PS3] 100k
[360] 200k
[GBA] 120k
[NGC] 10k
[NDS] 430k
[WII] 370k

I am so pulling these numbers out of my ass.
Click to expand...

You're numbers are good, except GBA and Wii are too high imo.

As for the Wii being last gen, the joke itself is paleolithic, and the grounds upon which the actual statement rests is on very shaky indeed. The actual use of the joke is almost a sure sign of a Microsoft or Sony fanboy who feels threatened by Nintendo's newly regained place of dominance in the sales charts.
Click to expand...

I'm a Sony/Microsoft fanboy?
 
S

Sharp

Member
I hope the parser is really good because a lot of these posts are going to mess it up. Specifically I'm thinking of bmf's post with Japan's sales numbers in the same format; won't those overwrite the ones in the first post?

Anyway I'm a coward and will not vote.
 
F

Forgotten Ancient

Banned
[PS2] 150k
[PSP] 140k
[PS3] 75k
[360] 170k
[GBA] 65k
[NGC] 10k
[NDS] 410k
[WII] 350k

btw...time sure is flying. It feels like NPD week was just a couple weeks ago.
 
J

jj984jj

He's a pretty swell guy in my books anyway.
[NDS] 450k
[WII] 290k
[PS2] 180k
[PSP] 135k
[360] 120k
[GBA] 96k
[PS3] 93k
[GCN] 10k
[XBX] N/A
 
A

apujanata

Member
My prediction :

[NDS] 470,000
[WII] 390,000
[PS2] 190,000
[PSP] 170,000
[360] 160,000
[GBA] 90,000
[PS3] 85,000
[NGC] 11,000

Are we going to get bonus point for S/W prediction, or will the S/W prediction have their own ranking / list (separated from H/W prediction/list) ?
 
G

Grampa Simpson

Banned
apujanata said:
Are we going to get bonus point for S/W prediction, or will the S/W prediction have their own ranking / list (separated from H/W prediction/list) ?
Click to expand...
I don't think that there's any ranking planned for software sales, but you're welcome to predict anyway and gloat if you're on target.
 
T

Tf53

Member
Without looking at anyone's guesses, here goes:

[NDS] 400k
[WII] 370k
[360] 200k
[PSP] 180k
[PS2] 170k
[PS3] 90k
[GBA] 70k
[NGC] 10k

GhaleonEB said:
Or reading the OP. :p
Click to expand...
I feared it would contain something that would influence my predictions. :lol
 
C

CNL

Banned
Who ever is closest wins a prize

[NDS] 375k
[WII] 275k
[PS2] 195k
[PSP] 100k
[360] 190k
[GBA] 80k
[PS3] 75k
[GCN] 40k
 
D

dammitmattt

Banned
[NDS] 425k
[WII] 325k
[360] 195k
[PS2] 185k
[PSP] 175k
[GBA] 75k
[PS3] 70k
[NGC] 10k
[XBX] 0k

---------------------

I've never been that close on the hardware predictions, but I actually nailed the software top ten last month so I'll give it another shot (no real numbers, just rankings with some commentary):

1. Pokemon Diamond
2. Pokemon Pearl
3. Forza 2
4. Mario Party 8
5. Wii Play
6. Guitar Hero 2 (360)
7. Guitar Hero 2 (PS2)
8. Pirates 3 (PS2)
9. Spider-Man 3 (PS2)
10. Crackdown - should get a small boost due to the Halo 3 beta

Pokemon will FAR outpace everything else and should be in the 400-500k range, and I think that Forza 2, Mario Party 8 will also do very well and should be around 250-300k apiece. Wii Play will reliably sell another 200k and there is no reason for it to NOT continue selling well all year unless Wii sales mysteriously dry up. Guitar Hero 2 will sell another 125-150k on each system, and like Wii Play, I don't see it slowing down that much, although the legs will easily be longer on the PS2. Unlike last month where Spider-Man 3 sold very well on the 360, I don't think that the movie-based games will do as well on the 360 this month due to the smaller appeal of the games themselves, but Pirates 3 should crack the top ten on something, and I'm guessing it's the PS2, while Spider-Man 3 on the PS2 should have some legs as well because it came out so late in the cycle last month and only had a few selling days. I don't think Shadowrun or C&C3 will crack the top ten with about 75-85k apiece, but something tells me that Crackdown will enjoy a small boost thanks to the Halo 3 beta.

Software sales predictions are fun so feel free to critique, comment, or give me advice :)
 
J

Jammy

Banned
Sho_Nuff82 said:
Its loaded with minigames, it has Mario in the title, and there are +250k new Wii owners. Do the math. All of the GCN versions sold well, and Wii games seem to be outperforming their GCN counterparts thus far, so I've no doubt that Mario Party 8 will shock all of us.
Click to expand...

Aye. But Mario Party games have usually been released near or in the holiday seasons, not to mention that this game would have only been tracked for around a week or so.

However, it should be noted that we should not underestimate the game at all. When I went to Circuit City at 2 p.m. (when they advertised to have it) a couple weeks ago, there was a freaking line of 20 people. I know Forza 2 came out at the same day, and both were $10 off there, I believe, but it was odd to see that only a couple out of those 20 or so people were getting that instead of Mario Party 8.

I just never expected that for the 8th Mario Party game. Maybe the Wii does wonders?
 
A

_Alkaline_

Member
dammitmattt said:
[NDS] 425k
[WII] 325k
[360] 195k
[PS2] 185k
[PSP] 175k
[GBA] 75k
[PS3] 70k
[NGC] 10k
[XBX] 0k

---------------------

I've never been that close on the hardware predictions, but I actually nailed the software top ten last month so I'll give it another shot (no real numbers, just rankings with some commentary):

1. Pokemon Diamond
2. Pokemon Pearl
3. Forza 2
4. Mario Party 8
5. Wii Play
6. Guitar Hero 2 (360)
7. Guitar Hero 2 (PS2)
8. Pirates 3 (PS2)
9. Spider-Man 3 (PS2)
10. Crackdown - should get a small boost due to the Halo 3 beta

Pokemon will FAR outpace everything else and should be in the 400-500k range, and I think that Forza 2, Mario Party 8 will also do very well and should be around 250-300k apiece. Wii Play will reliably sell another 200k and there is no reason for it to NOT continue selling well all year unless Wii sales mysteriously dry up. Guitar Hero 2 will sell another 125-150k on each system, and like Wii Play, I don't see it slowing down that much, although the legs will easily be longer on the PS2. Unlike last month where Spider-Man 3 sold very well on the 360, I don't think that the movie-based games will do as well on the 360 this month due to the smaller appeal of the games themselves, but Pirates 3 should crack the top ten on something, and I'm guessing it's the PS2, while Spider-Man 3 on the PS2 should have some legs as well because it came out so late in the cycle last month and only had a few selling days. I don't think Shadowrun or C&C3 will crack the top ten with about 75-85k apiece, but something tells me that Crackdown will enjoy a small boost thanks to the Halo 3 beta.

Software sales predictions are fun so feel free to critique, comment, or give me advice :)
Click to expand...

No that's very good. There is a question mark on Mario Party 8, given it's only been out for few days before NPD ended, but it should still get in the top 5.

Also, will Pirates do better than 8th?
 
D

dyls

Member
[NDS] 450K
[WII] 300K
[PSP] 155K
[PS2] 150K
[360] 145K
[GBA] 80K
[PS3] 79K

Once we have all of these numbers gathered, let's average them out and sell our findings in $1000 reports. It is time.
 
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