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Official May 2007 NPD Prediction Thread

G

Grampa Simpson

Banned
Cheesemeister said:
Post formatting guidelines for the parser...

List numeric values following system tags on their own lines in a post. All non-numeric characters following the tag will be stripped out, save for the first instance of the letter K in either upper or lower-case, which will be replaced with 3 zeroes. Make predictions by the set deadline, at which point the parser will be run. If a given poster has more than one post with predictions, guesses in subsequent posts will override previous guesses. By the same token, subsequent guesses on the same system within a given post will overwrite previous guesses.

Some examples of valid input follow, but do at least keep them readable for your fellow forum-goers.

[PS2] 123,456
[PSP] 123456
[PS3] 123K
[360] 123k - because of Halo 3 anticipation
[GBA]12 3 Totakeke
[NGC] 1 2 3 4 5 6
[NDS] 123456 (You will say WOW.)
[WII] 123'456

Invalid input:

Sony PlayStation 2: 123,455 plus one
PS Three - 123KK
Weeeeee ~ one hundred twenty-three thousand kajillion units!!!1lol
...

Any lines without valid input, i.e. your comments, will be ignored. Questions, comments?
Click to expand...
Page 3 - Start!
 
D

dammitmattt

Banned
Alkaliine said:
No that's very good. There is a question mark on Mario Party 8, given it's only been out for few days before NPD ended, but it should still get in the top 5.

Also, will Pirates do better than 8th?
Click to expand...

Mario Party 8 came out the same day as Forza 2, and the last few months have had a number of one-week wonders make the chart.

Pirates 2 could easily do better than 8th based on the strength of the brand, but there isn't a historical trend of strong sales for the brand like their is for Spider-Man, so for me it's just a huge unknown. For all I know, it sold 300+k, or it could've even sold decently for the 360, but I doubt it.
 
A

_Alkaline_

Member
dammitmattt said:
Mario Party 8 came out the same day as Forza 2, and the last few months have had a number of one-week wonders make the chart.

Pirates 2 could easily do better than 8th based on the strength of the brand, but there isn't a historical trend of strong sales for the brand like their is for Spider-Man, so for me it's just a huge unknown. For all I know, it sold 300+k, or it could've even sold decently for the 360, but I doubt it.
Click to expand...

Good points, I guess we'll have to see. Should definitely be interesting.

I predict 200k for Mario Party and 275k for Forza.
 
B

Bo130

Member
What a dull month of releases ;_; My prediction.

[NDS] 365k
[WII] 270k
[PS2] 220k
[360] 190k
[PSP] 160k
[GBA] 80k
[PS3] 60k
[GCN] 17k

Note: Edited acc. to PKMN, Forza and Wii Play.
 
C

corez

Member
My Predictions

[NDS] 500k
[WII] 450k
[360] 175k
[PS2] 150k
[PSP] 150k
[GBA] 91k
[PS3] 90k
[GCN] 12k
[XBX] 0K
 
V

Vagabundo

Member
[NDS] 455k
[WII] 330k
[PS2] 188k
[PSP] 188k
[360] 182k
[GBA] 70k
[PS3] 62k (insert funny comment here)
[GCN] 8k
[XBX] 0k

Parser: Please delete this line...
 
Haunted

Haunted

Member
[NDS] 415k
[WII] 291k
[360] 184k
[PS2] 169k
[PSP] 163k
[GBA] 96k
[PS3] 82k
[NGC] 8k


dyls said:
Once we have all of these numbers gathered, let's average them out and sell our findings in $1000 reports. It is time.
Click to expand...
seconded.
 
S

Sule

Member
dyls said:
Once we have all of these numbers gathered, let's average them out and sell our findings in $1000 reports. It is time.
Click to expand...

Anybody mind if i do it? First two pages already done, working on third right now.
 
P

Parl

Member
GAF May Meltdown Score Card:

a) PSP below 160k - 3 points
b) PSP below 150k - another 3 points
c) Wii below 300k - 3 points
d) PS3 below 70k - 5 points
e) PS3 above 100k - 7 points
f) PS3 > GBA - 3 points
g) GBA > PS3 - 2 points
h) 360 > PS2 - 3 points
i) PS3 > Wii - 50 points
Click to expand...


I predict a score of 17 on this month's meltdown scale.

Edit: Quoted out of fear for Cheese's parser.
 
G

Gozan

Member
[DS] 9000k
[Wii] 8000k
[PS2] 3000k
[360] 4000k
[PSP] 10
[GBA] 1000k
[PS3] 5
[GC] 1000k


Shilling for Pachter to throw Gaf's numbers off!
 
O

Orgen

Member
[DS] 446.000
[WII] 241.000 (Here's the risk, based in Japanese Sales)
[360] 192.000
[PSP] 187.000
[PS2] 179.000
[GBA] 78.000
[PS3] 73.000
[GC] 11.000

Is this format (xxx.xxx) valid?
 
O

Omnicent

Member
[NDS] 476k
[WII] 385k
[PS2] 185k
[PSP] 180k
[360] 186k
[GBA] 81k
[PS3] 78k
[NGC] 10k

Forgot to put then in the correct order the first time >.<
 
P

Parl

Member
[NDS] 485K
[WII] 346K
[360] 206K - because of Halo 3 anticipation
[PS2] 176K
[PSP] 142K (You will say WOW.)
[PS3] 65K
[GBA] 57K

[GCN] 10K
 
B

Borys

Banned
What the hell I'll try just for the fun of it and for the bitterness of various posters here when 360 fails to reach 150K:

[NDS] 390k
[WII] 290k
[PS2] 190k
[PSP] 140k
[360] 145k
[GBA] 70k
[PS3] 80k
[GCN] 8k
[XBX] 0.1K
 
C

C.T.

Member
Just a question. It makes no sense to assume low us wii sales just because japanese sales were lower. demand is still strong and it could mean a stronger focus for the us market with actually increased shipments.
 
S

Sule

Member
Neogaf Securities said:
May 2007 Video Game Sales Preview: Expect Sales decrease of 5,5%

We expect May U.S. retail video game console hardware sales to be released after market close on Thursday, June 14th. We forecast total hardware sales of 1,475,000 units, up 52,1% compared to last years 970,000 units. The increase is largely due to the tripled sales of the Nintendo DS portable video game system and the introduction of the Nintendo Wii.

Our estimate reflects 1,200,000 units in sales contribution from new platforms (PLAYSTATION 3, Nintendo Wii, XBOX360, Playstation Portable and Nintendo DS), representing year-over-year growth of 673,000 units, or 127,7%. Again as a result of the introduction of new platforms and the sales increase of Nintendo DS consoles. We expect current generation hardware sales of 275,000 units, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 168,000 units, or 38%. The drop is due to the non-existent sales of XBOX hardware and the huge year-over-year drop in sales of Nintendo GameCube, which both, unlike the PS2, have no 3rd or even 1st party software in the foreseeable future and beyond.

Our forecast presumes sell through of 77,000 PS3, down from last months 82,000, a decrease of 6,1%. Even though Target is discontinuing the GBA portable video game system, and thus the PS3 finally catching a break, we expect that the effects of this won't be noticeable until next months NPD-figures (if at all noticeable). The Nintendo Wii had a sell through of 339,000 units, down 21,000 from last month, or 5,8%. The prediction for the Nintendo Wii is based on lower than usual sales in Japan, most probably due to the launch of Mario Strikers Charged in Europe. We expect more Nintendo Wii hardware systems allocated to the European market and less to the Japanese and North American markets. Although some would think otherwise.

Our overall estimates assume PS2 hardware sales of 185,000, a year-over-year decrease of 47,000, or 20,3%. Despite this fact we expect PS2 sales to continue to be strong this whole year, most probably outselling the PS3 if Sony (Sony Corp, NYSE: SNE: 54.70) doesn't drop that price like it's hot or until system selling games don't appear for it.

We expect May software sales to be driven by continued strong sales of Nintendo's (Nintendo Co., Ltd (ADR), OTC:NTDOY 43.60) Pokemon Diamond and Pearl, Super Paper Mario, Wii Play and a new release for it's Nintendo Wii video game system, Mario Party 8. In the Top 10 we also expect to see Forza 2, a new title for Microsoft's (Microsoft Corp., NASDAQ: MSFT: 30.05) XBOX360. Guitar Hero II from Activision (Activision, Inc., NASDAQ: ATVI: 18.53) is still in the top ten along with Crackdown and Command and Conquer 3. We note that 9 games sold over 100,000 units in March, and we expect all of the top ten games of this month to sell over that number.
Click to expand...

preliminary reports based on 86 member predictions.

System order NDS Wii PS2 PSP X360 GBA PS3 GCN XBOX

Average 435 339 185 171 178 80 77 10 0

March 471 360 194 183 174 84 82 13 0

Difference (abs.) 36 21 9 12 4 4 5 3 0

Difference (%) 7,6 5,8 4,7 6,6 2,3 4,8 6,1 23,1 0

Total 1475

Total march 1561

Difference (abs.) -86

Difference (%) -5,5

Total may last year 970

Difference (abs.) 505

Difference (%) 52,1

Anybody wanna e-mail Wedbush Morgan when the final NeoGAF securities results come in :)
 
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