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Official May 2007 NPD Prediction Thread

S

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
[DS] 450k
[Wii] 380k
[PS2] 200k
[360] 190k
[PSP] 165k
[GBA] 80k
[PS3] 75k
[GC] 8k


Think Wii shipments might be slightly up- it seemed to be advertised in weekly ads a lot.

I think Mario Party, Wii Play, and SPM will be in the top 10.
 
C

Cheesemeister

Member
Sule said:
Anybody mind if i do it? First two pages already done, working on third right now.
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No need, you'll get averages for free.

Orgen said:
Is this format (xxx.xxx) valid?
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Unfortunately, yes. I said it'll throw away any non-numeric characters save for the letter K.

Omnicent said:
Forgot to put then in the correct order the first time >.<
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Order won't matter.

ElAlcesDiablo said:
Does the parser ignore quotes, Cheese?
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Yes.
 
K

Kosma

Banned
Borys said:
What the hell I'll try just for the fun of it and for the bitterness of various posters here when PS3 fails to reach 100k (again)
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:)

Fixed.

Don't worry though Borys, I'll be game at 400 euro, when FFXIII is released in Europe (if I'm not backpacking at that time though).
 
D

donny2112

Member
Branduil said:
Thanks. Interesting that the 360 dropped but the PS2 rose.
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April was when the 360 was finally back in stock at most places, so it was down from a bump in May. May was PS2's first full month with the price drop.


Cheesemeister,

A lot of people are using GCN or GC for the GameCube instead of NGC. Will those whole predictions get thrown out altogether by the parser, or will it just not store a GameCube prediction for those?


Predictions

[NDS] 440K
[WII] 320K
[PS2] 170K
[360] 168K
[PSP] 160k
[GBA] 72K
[PS3] 70K

[NGC] 10,400
[XBX] 0K

Sule said:
NeoGAF Securities stuff
Click to expand...

Very nice. I like how it specifically mentions Japanese and European Wii shipments as having an effect on U.S. shipments. It helps to have a global perspective on a system that's mostly sold out globally. :)
 
C

Cheesemeister

Member
donny2112 said:
A lot of people are using GCN or GC for the GameCube instead of NGC. Will those whole predictions get thrown out altogether by the parser, or will it just not store a GameCube prediction for those?
Click to expand...

I honestly don't know why people insist in clinging so tenaciously to the world's stupidest acronym (alongside CGB and AGB), but I anticipated there being various forms used.
 
S

sonycowboy

Member
donny2112 said:
A lot of people are using GCN or GC for the GameCube instead of NGC. Will those whole predictions get thrown out altogether by the parser, or will it just not store a GameCube prediction for those?
Click to expand...

GCN is what's used by NPD. Pretty much an unexplainable abbreviation, I'd agree.

NES = NES
GEN = Genesis
SNES = Super NES
3DO = 3DO
GBOY = Gameboy
SAT = Saturn
PSX = Playstation
N64 = Nintendo 64
GBC = Gameboy Color
DC = Dreamcast
PS2 = Playstation 2
GBA = Gameboy Advance
GCN = Gamecube
XBX = Xbox
NGA = Ngage
NDS = Nintendo DS
PSP = PSP
360 = XBox 360
PS3 = Playstation 3
Wii = Wii
 
D

djtiesto

is beloved, despite what anyone might say
[NDS] 450k
[WII] 330k
[PS2] 220k
[360] 180k
[PSP] 175k
[GBA] 87.5k
[PS3] 85k
[GCN] 8k

Odin Sphere - 20 million copies (yeah right :()
 
C

CoryCubed

Member
[NDS] 415k
[WII] 375k
[PS2] 175k
[PSP] 240k
[360] 177kk
[GBA] 55k
[PS3] 81k
[GCN] 11k

I think many will be suprised by the PSP this NPD go around.
 
S

starship

psycho_snake's and The Black Brad Pitt's B*TCH
Sule said:
preliminary reports based on 86 member predictions.

System order NDS Wii PS2 PSP X360 GBA PS3 GCN XBOX

Average 435 339 185 171 178 80 77 10 0

March 471 360 194 183 174 84 82 13 0

Difference (abs.) 36 21 9 12 4 4 5 3 0

Difference (%) 7,6 5,8 4,7 6,6 2,3 4,8 6,1 23,1 0

Total 1475

Total march 1561

Difference (abs.) -86

Difference (%) -5,5

Total may last year 970

Difference (abs.) 505

Difference (%) 52,1

Anybody wanna e-mail Wedbush Morgan when the final NeoGAF securities results come in :)
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That's interesting. I'll predict later.
 
T

tanod

when is my burrito
[NDS] 450k
[WII] 450k
[PS2] 200k
[PSP] 190k
[360] 160k
[GBA] 70k
[PS3] 90k

[NGC] 9k
[XBX] 0K

GBA will supply constrained. :D
 
Chiggs

Chiggs

Member
[DS] 421k
[Wii] 345k
[PSP] 212k
[PS2] 207k
[360] 192k
[GBA] 85k
[PS3] 74k
[GCN] 5k
[Xbox] 400 units sold. (Sorry, Europeans!)


Edit: VVVVVVV
 
C

Cheesemeister

Member
Chiggs said:
[Xbox] 0.4k
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In order to accommodate the Europeans who use the period character instead of the comma for denoting thousands place values, the character will be ignored and this would be interpreted as 4000. If you want to list more precise numbers, forgo using the K shortcut and explicitly list the number.
 
T

TwinsDad

Member
My Guess:

[NDS] 501k
[WII] 373k
[PS2] 182k
[360] 180k
[PSP] 185k
[GBA] 80k
[PS3] 85k


I was somewhat far off last month, but as a first time guesser, high on the low end of the pack isn't bad.

Edit: Formatted to the rest of the thread. I also didn't put Wii numbers.
 
S

scionguyXB

Member
(NDS) 500,000 (sold a bunch for mothers day)
(wii) 390,000
(xbox360) 160,000
(psp) 145,000
(ps2) 130,000
(gba) 81,000
(ps3) 79,000
these are my predictions i work at a retail store. nintendo ds was flying off the seleves for mother day, and so was the ds software! every shippment of the wii we got sold out in less than a hour. only sad note was the ps3, just sat there, i think we sold 3-5 ps3 units all month! If that. xbox 360 sold well
 
C

Cheesemeister

Member
reading.png


Use the parser format, people.
 
D

dammitmattt

Banned
CoryCubed said:
[NDS] 415k
[WII] 375k
[PS2] 175k
[PSP] 240k
[360] 177kk
[GBA] 55k
[PS3] 81k
[GCN] 11k

I think many will be suprised by the PSP this NPD go around.
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Since you appear to have the highest PSP estimate around, do you mind sharing why you believe this to be true, or is it just a hunch? There wasn't really any big PSP software released...
 
S

SpacLock

Member
[NDS] 425k
[WII] 300k
[PS2] 200k
[360] 195k
[PSP] 140k
[GBA] 80k
[PS3] 80k
[GCN] 11k

When do we get to see this shit? I never follow it and i'm pulling numbers out of my ass right now.
 
T

The M.O.B

Member
dammitmattt said:
Since you appear to have the highest PSP estimate around, do you mind sharing why you believe this to be true, or is it just a hunch? There wasn't really any big PSP software released...
Click to expand...

Full effect of the price drop?

My guesses

DS - 465k
Wii - 360k
PS2 - 160k
PSP - 160k
360 - 180k
GBA - 75k
PS3 - 70k
GC - 10k
 
J

Jammy

Banned
The M.O.B said:
Full effect of the price drop?
My guesses

DS - 465k
Wii - 360k
PS2 - 160k
PSP - 160k
360 - 180k
GBA - 75k
PS3 - 70k
GC - 10k
Click to expand...

I'm pretty sure April's NPD had full effect of the price drop, too.
 
D

donny2112

Member
DayShallCome said:
Also, just to reiterate, the rankings only include the 7 main consoles, right? They exclude Xbx and GCN, right?
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If I do the rankings, that's how I do them.

The M.O.B said:
Full effect of the price drop?
Click to expand...

That was in April. There's no reason for the PSP to see much/any bump this month.

Edit: See Jammy's post.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
On the hardware front, this month should look a lot like last month a few minor fluctuations aside. There will be some movement to analyze, but I think overall there won't be any big swings. The GAF predictions so far seem in indicate that's the concensus here as well.

The questions I eagerly await the answers to are -

1) Will the PS3 level off? 82k is amazingly bad, but I'm not convinced it's bottomed out. A reversal, or even stablization at this point, is becoming critical.
2) Same for 360 sales. Stablization or an increase would bolster the argument that the Elite announcement early in last month's reporting period, and the release of it so late, suppressed overall hardware sales. A further drop will just highlight how the market is tapped out at current pricepoints.
3) How many Wii's did Nintendo ship? I'm expecting about the same as last month.

I'm very curious about the debuts of Shadowrun and Forza 2 as well.
 
D

dammitmattt

Banned
GhaleonEB said:
I'm very curious about the debuts of Shadowrun and Forza 2 as well.
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Fearless prediction - we won't get Shadowrun's numbers unless someone releases and Xbox 360-only top ten list.

It will be lucky to hit 75k with it's various problems and EPICLY bad timing.
 
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