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(Wedbush) November NPD Preview & OFFICIAL Prediction thread

F

Flo_Evans

Member
my prediction:

"am cry" will be used at least 20 times in the official thread

"itprintsmoney.gif" will make a comback

"WOW" to be used at LEAST 50 times

":lol " too many to count

10 bannings at minimum
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Just so the reminder is on this page - there's nine systems to predict this time around! To be counted in the official tally you need to submit guesses for all of them.

Wii:
PS2:
360:
PS3:

NDS:
GBA:
PSP:

GCN:
Xbox:
 
O

Odysseus

Banned
pol's voice said:
I'm thinking by Summer '07 the Wii will catch up to 360 at current pace providing supplies are there.
Click to expand...

I'm thinking by Summer '07 Wii will be dead in the water in the US. GameCube successor confirmed.
 
M

Mike Works

Member
i've never played this game before but i'll try!

DS - 689,000
360 - 598,000
GBA - 505,000
PS2 - 485,000
Wii - 460,000
PSP - 407,000
PS3 - 265,000
 
C

Cheesemeister

Member
After crunching some numbers, here are the average and range of guesses per platform, rounded to the nearest whole unit:

NDS: 785,294 (300K ~ 1,200K)
360: 540,936 (349K ~ 750K)
Wii: 527,192 (349K ~ 800K)
PS2: 511,497 (200K ~ 750K)
GBA: 385,542 (90K ~ 740K)
PSP: 301,427 (75K ~ 500K)
PS3: 216,692 (150K ~ 350K)
NGC: 65,179 (12K ~ 150K)
XBX: 14,680 (1K ~ 75K)

Given actual hardware numbers, the best of the 66 to make all 9 platform guesses will follow.
 
D

DeadlySchnauzer

Member
so arcadia investment has released retail survey figures giving hardware numbers for november but my thread on that got locked instantly.... is that because i should have posted here?
 
I

IJoel

Member
I usually stay away from such threads, but this one will be legendary.

Wii: 525K
PS2: 445K
360: 560K
PS3: 245K

NDS: 700K
GBA: 320K
PSP: 300K

GCN: 90K
Xbox: 30K
 
G

Ghengis Cohen

Banned
DeadlySchnauzer said:
so arcadia investment has released retail survey figures giving hardware numbers for november but my thread on that got locked instantly.... is that because i should have posted here?
Click to expand...
Your thread was the third one started with that information after it got posted in this thread.
 
G

gamergirly

Member
Cheesemeister said:
After crunching some numbers, here are the average and range of guesses per platform, rounded to the nearest whole unit:

NDS: 785,294 (300K ~ 1,200K)
360: 540,936 (349K ~ 750K)Wii: 527,192 (349K ~ 800K)
PS2: 511,497 (200K ~ 750K)
GBA: 385,542 (90K ~ 740K)
PSP: 301,427 (75K ~ 500K)
PS3: 216,692 (150K ~ 350K)
NGC: 65,179 (12K ~ 150K)
XBX: 14,680 (1K ~ 75K)

Given actual hardware numbers, the best of the 66 to make all 9 platform guesses will follow.
Click to expand...

Looks like just about everyone predicts the DS being the highest selling platform.
 
S

Sharky

Banned
Looks like just about everyone predicts the DS being the highest selling platform.
Click to expand...

It had better be, at $129.

It could sell nearly four times as much as 360 and just be on par in money spent by consumers. Not too mention $60 games versus $30-40 games, and a much higher attach rate I'd wager on 360, will make the dollar disparity in favor of microsoft even bigger.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Sharky said:
http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4343&Itemid=2

Wow, if these numbers are true DS just isn't catching on in the West like Japan. Cant say I'm entirely surprised. Japanese spend a lot of time on buses/public transport. There just isn't that market size for handhelds in the West.
Click to expand...
It's still doing very, very well though. Nothing for Nintendo to be worried about. Like, say, PSP numbers. :p

And those figures are estimates; we have no idea how close to NPD they are until Thursday afternoon.
 
C

Cheesemeister

Member
npd0611-360.gif

npd0611-ps3.gif

npd0611-wii.gif

npd0611-nds.gif

npd0611-psp.gif


Note: guesses equal to the borderline on each bucket are on the left-hand side of the boundary.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Flo_Evans said:
my prediction:

"am cry" will be used at least 20 times in the official thread

"itprintsmoney.gif" will make a comback

"WOW" to be used at LEAST 50 times

":lol " too many to count

10 bannings at minimum
Click to expand...

I would go with fewer bannings, but yes.

I am actually really not looking forward to it. I thought it would be fun, but console politics have become so bitter around here that a mod is going to need to actively be participating in the thread in order to keep it under control. It's going to be that bad.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Awesome, graphs of our predictions now. November NPD is serious stuff! Posters, movie trailers, digested predictions, dogs and cats, living together. Mass hysteria!

Interesting that the 360 has a non-standard distribution. That's the one which is hardest to predict since we don't have any existing announcements or supply constraint figures to go on. If the analysts are right, and MS moves 750k, then nealy everone gets owned. :lol

Kinda related, Microsoft yesterday reiterated the 10 by year end target. So November must have been on track.


http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4346&Itemid=2
 
G

gamergirly

Member
Of the 3 predictions, 360 guesses are all over the place but the majority are toward the lower end of the sale range. It's the most unpredictable system of the bunch. I wonder. Will anything below 500,000 for 360 be considered a failure for November?
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
gamergirly said:
Of the 3 predictions, 360 guesses are all over the place but the majority are toward the lower end of the sale range. It's the most unpredictable system of the bunch. I wonder. Will anything below 500,000 for 360 be considered a failure for November?
Click to expand...
That's my bar - anything below 500k is a major lost opportunity for Microsoft.
 
O

Odysseus

Banned
gamergirly said:
Of the 3 predictions, 360 guesses are all over the place but the majority are toward the lower end of the sale range. It's the most unpredictable system of the bunch. I wonder. Will anything below 500,000 for 360 be considered a failure for November?
Click to expand...

I'd say lower than 450 would be concerning, lower than 500K would be disappointing given the trends of the year, whereas higher than 600K would put it in a considerably favorable light, borderlining on outstanding. 700K or higher would be eye popping. Lower than 400K would be [insert RE4 bail out pic].
 
S

Speevy

Banned
I think anything like the Xbox's November 2002 numbers will be a sign that the 360 isn't ready to hold the US market from Sony any longer than early 2008.

And Gears is most certainly the best selling next gen. game in November, so if that didn't move consoles, Halo 3 will have to.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
It won't be lower than 400k. Most predictions by people doing sort of video game exit polling indicate otherwise.

If it WERE, though...man, the NPD thread would just be unbearable.
 
D

Deku

Banned
Well the ps3 and wii are easier to predict mainly because their shipment figures are known or in PS3's case, widely speculated upon.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
goldenpp72 said:
wasnt the xbox 200 bucks by its second november? I might be mistaken.
Click to expand...
Yeah, it dropped to $200 in May 2002. The 360 has outsold it by nearly 200k over the comparable periods since that drop.
 
D

DefectiveReject

Banned
360: 603k
PS2: 611k
Wii: 540k
PS3: 189k
GCN: 57K
Xbox: 3K

DS: 831k
GBA: 700k
PSP: 300k

Gears of War: 1m
Zelda: 440K
FFXII: 755K
All version of Call of Duty 3: 698K
Resistance: 120K
Brain Age: 300K
Red Steel: 112K
 
G

Ginko

Member
Here' goes

Wii : 580k
PS2 : 350k
360 : 620k
PS3 : 290k

NDS : 760k
GBA : 400k
PSP : 220k

GCN : 20k
Xbox : 15k
 
S

Striek

Member
BenjaminBirdie said:
Fuel To The Fire
Click to expand...
Interesting, yet at the same time, rather boring. I hope the figures aren't so predictable when we finally get them. Looking at Cheesemeister's list the biggest curve-balls for GAFfers will be the Nintendo handhelds.


Oh and the tie-ratio commentary is....wow...I remember some report coming out awhile back that predicted 2 for PS3 and 3 for Wii, and I thought both were outrageous underestimations. Luckily for Sony and Nintendo long-term tie-ratios nearly always even out to similar levels between platforms...if publishers stick it out.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
syllogism said:
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=21551

So is it shipped or sold.
Click to expand...
Shipped, but from the distribution center in the US, not from the factory in China. That's ~6 week gap between what MS defines as shipped and what Sony does, according to Bach.

November must have gone well for them to reiterate that number indo December. I'd imagine at least 3 of the four million total planned shipments for the quarter are out the door by now.
 
S

Striek

Member
GhaleonEB said:
November must have gone well for them to reiterate that number indo December.
Click to expand...
Is their even a point at which they abandon that number?

I think they would choose to follow through, ride it out, hit their (low end) 13M target for FY'07, then if their hand is forced, slow the pace of shipments, losing no face.


Having said that, I don't think their hand will be forced. Clearing 4M worldwide (or close enough) for November/December should be fairly trivial, leaving as much stock in the channel as there was beforehand.
 
T

The Innocent X

Banned
Striek said:
Is their even a point at which they abandon that number?

I think they would choose to follow through, ride it out, hit their (low end) 13M target for FY'07, then if their hand is forced, slow the pace of shipments, losing no face.


Having said that, I don't think their hand will be forced. Clearing 4M worldwide (or close enough) for November/December should be fairly trivial, leaving as much stock in the channel as there was beforehand.
Click to expand...

I`d be amazed if they didn`t hit the shipping number, regardless of sell-through. Its a financial target, and so they will be pushing big to hit it, even if it means discounting them to retailers.

EDIT: sold to MS means sold to retailers, not customers. The "in gamers hands" thing was PR rubbish.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
ChrisAllenFiz said:
I`d be amazed if they didn`t hit the shipping number, regardless of sell-through. Its a financial target, and so they will be pushing big to hit it, even if it means discounting them to retailers.

EDIT: sold to MS means sold to retailers, not customers. The "in gamers hands" thing was PR rubbish.
Click to expand...
And to be fair, only Shane Kim used that phrase, and only in one interview. Everyone else was talking shipped both before and after that interview, which makes me think he was simply mistaken. Though, at the time they were talking shipped by the time the PS3 launched, so something definately changed. :lol
 
H

hadareud

The Translator
If MS manage to sell over 2 million in NA during November and December their pricing strategy has definitely paid off.

It will be interesting to see which console (not handheld) has sold most. Despite my prediction I guess that PS2, 360 and Wii will be very close. Hard to call.
 
G

Gav

Member
First reply in one of these threads, but i cant wait to see the actual numbers!

Wii : 580k
PS2 : 350k
360 : 700k
PS3 : 250k

NDS : 750k
GBA : 350k
PSP : 240k

GCN : 12k
Xbox : 10k
 
S

syllogism

Member
GhaleonEB said:
And to be fair, only Shane Kim used that phrase, and only in one interview. Everyone else was talking shipped both before and after that interview, which makes me think he was simply mistaken. Though, at the time they were talking shipped by the time the PS3 launched, so something definately changed. :lol
Click to expand...

Christopher Liddell keeps saying sold though; in case you didn't notice the quote above is dated today.
 
S

Striek

Member
Oh, November might be tight, but for Nov+Dec (which I thought you meant), the odds are basically none IMO. Unless we have a colossal cock-up by Sony and Microsoft, or Nintendo ships alot more than they said they would, I think the Wii won't beat much at all. GC, Xbox and PS3 of course, with an outside chance at the PSP.
 
H

hadareud

The Translator
Oh, I meant November. There should be no chance for the Wii to be close to PS2 & 360 in December. Unless their estimates are completely wrong as you say
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Okay, I just woke up after having a dream about NPD sales. A dream!

Gah!

360 had 610k

this is what happens when I'm stuck in bed without anything to look forward to for a few weeks. :(
 
Q

quetz67

Banned
GhaleonEB said:
Okay, I just woke up after having a dream about NPD sales. A dream!

Gah!

360 had 610k

this is what happens when I'm stuck in bed without anything to look forward to for a few weeks. :(
Click to expand...
I had a dream about 360 sales too:

750k in november
1.5M in december
3.0M in january
6.0M in february
...

I woke up early 2008 because the world was covered by 360s and we all died
 
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