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(Wedbush) November NPD Preview & OFFICIAL Prediction thread

G

GhaleonEB

Member
quetz67 said:
I had a deam about 360 sales too:

750k in november
1.5M in december
3.0M in january
6.0M in february
...

I woke up early 2008 because the world was covered by 360s and we all died
Click to expand...
Sounds like more of a nightmare!
 
B

borghe

Loves the Greater Toronto Area
if the 360 goes under 500K for MS, I hate to be cliche but that'll about wrap it up for MS. There would be no way to spin that positively. That being said, I don't see it going under 500K. If it goes to around 750K, quite the opposite, that would definitely show life in the old Redmond monster yet. It would also cement GoW as a MAJOR system seller without question.

So here are my guesses

Wii: 540K
360: 550K
PS3: 220K
PS2: 475K

NDS: 850K
PSP: 300K
GBA: 400K

GCN: 25K
XBox: 4K
 
J

jon61586

Member
NPD doesn't count Walmart, BJ;s, Costco, Sams Club or anything like that do they? Well there are 6600 Walmart stores in the world I would imagine that the majority of that number is in the United States. So Maybe around 4000 stores in the US. So if each one sells 10 360's a month that is around 40K Unaccounted for sales numbers. Just an example. I figure overall there is probably 75K-150k sales not accounted for by the NPD. Or I could be wrong.
 
U

Ulairi

Banned
jon61586 said:
NPD doesn't count Walmart, BJ;s, Costco, Sams Club or anything like that do they? Well there are 6600 Walmart stores in the world I would imagine that the majority of that number is in the United States. So Maybe around 4000 stores in the US. So if each one sells 5 360's a month that is around 20K Unaccounted for saless numbers. Just an example. I figure overall there is probably 50K-100K sales not accounted for by the NPD. Or I could be wrong.
Click to expand...


They factor them into the model.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
jon61586 said:
According to this they don't.
http://www.adobe.com/macromedia/ir/macr/whitepapers/npd_pos.pdf

Sorry they do factor them in but they just estimate not actual figures.
Click to expand...
that's what is meant by "factor them in", based on knowledge of marketshare, demographics, ect. It's not perfect but they are taken into account.

When news agency Bloomberg asked Moore if Microsoft is "likely to beat" the target, he responded "Yes. All indications are that we came off a very strong Thanksgiving holiday." He didn't say by how much the company may exceed the forecast, nor did he update the goal.
Click to expand...
Ho boy. Here we come. If 360 numbers don't deliver, MS will never, ever live it down.

Moore also told Bloomberg, "The key is we're in stock, we're available, we're delivering well to retail. Certainly the consumer is recognizing the fact that we have a great price point as well as 160 games available and that flies in the face of our competition."
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He's always on-message, that's for sure. And priceless selection of picture for the article.

petermoore2.jpg

It's just begging for some captions/photoshop love.
 
O

Odysseus

Banned
borghe said:
if the 360 goes under 500K for MS, I hate to be cliche but that'll about wrap it up for MS. There would be no way to spin that positively.
Click to expand...

Define "wrap it up." If you mean "stick a fork in them, la bomba, dreamcast am repeated," then I cannot agree (unless the number is < 400K, then maybe I'll entertain those thoughts). If you mean "well, they'll sell pretty well, in fact they'll probably beat the original by a comfortable margin but there's no way they're going to be the market leader once it's all said and done," then you might be onto something.
 
M

Mrbob

Member
Yeah if MS cant hit thier 10 million number after all their BS pimping of it in the last year, bail out.

Yes anything under 500K would be a disaster for the X360 in Nov. Especially considering NA is the strongest territory.
 
J

JoshuaJSlone

Member
hadareud said:
Oh, I meant November. There should be no chance for the Wii to be close to PS2 & 360 in December. Unless their estimates are completely wrong as you say
Click to expand...
Microsoft has yet to reach 1.1 million in a December NPD. PS2 was at 1.5 million last year, and sales are generally down this year. If Nintendo's shipping claims don't fall too short, they could be pretty close.

jon61586 said:
Sorry they do factor them in but they just estimate not actual figures.
Click to expand...
Sure, but you just estimated the same thing. Why can't they do it better?
 
B

borghe

Loves the Greater Toronto Area
Odysseus said:
If you mean "well, they'll sell pretty well, in fact they'll probably beat the original by a comfortable margin but there's no way they're going to be the market leader once it's all said and done," then you might be onto something.
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all of that except "beat the original by a comfortable margin". If they don't even hit 500K in a holiday month I can't see them ramping up to numbers that will beat the original. < 500K won't DC the 360, but it will definitely GCN/PSP it.
 
O

Odysseus

Banned
GhaleonEB said:
And global warming isn't a nightmare!?
Click to expand...

On a more distant level, the earth has gone through periods of vast climate change in relatively short periods of time. There are warm eras and there are ice ages. Global warming, then, is just one of those cycles that will later be reversed as the earth constantly corrects and recorrects itself over the millennia. Global warming should not be feared, but embraced as a natural phenomena that we have the joy of experiencing on a limited scale firsthand.
 
O

Odysseus

Banned
borghe said:
all of that except "beat the original by a comfortable margin". If they don't even hit 500K in a holiday month I can't see them ramping up to numbers that will beat the original. < 500K won't DC the 360, but it will definitely GCN/PSP it.
Click to expand...

I just have to disagree. It would have to truly go south and tank considerably for it not to beat the original Xbox considering that by the end of the year, they will be almost ~40% of the way there at a price point $200 higher than Xbox was (after the first six months). There is simply no way sales of 500K would indicate 360 not eventually surpassing Xbox and putting a healthy distance between the two platforms.
 
C

C4Lukins

Junior Member
borghe said:
all of that except "beat the original by a comfortable margin". If they don't even hit 500K in a holiday month I can't see them ramping up to numbers that will beat the original. < 500K won't DC the 360, but it will definitely GCN/PSP it.
Click to expand...

I disagree. If it was a hundred dollars cheaper, then you would probably be right. The premium system is still priced in a range that has never historically been succesful in the US. Yet the 360 has been trucken along nicely for over a year now with solid sales. Think of it this way, if the PS3 is still 500 to 600 dollars a year from now, and does not sell half a million in November, does that mean it is pretty much dead in the water? Not at all, because eventually it will get down to that 250 and below pricepoint where you can start expecting those massive sales.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Odysseus said:
On a more distant level, the earth has gone through periods of vast climate change in relatively short periods of time. There are warm eras and there are ice ages. Global warming, then, is just one of those cycles that will later be reversed as the earth constantly corrects and recorrects itself over the millennia. Global warming should not be feared, but embraced as a natural phenomena that we have the joy of experiencing on a limited scale firsthand.
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Unless you live on the coast! Run for your lives!

I think MS's comments (like Moore above) are raising expectations for NPD tomorrow. With talk exceeding the 10m target, 500k would be a letdown. Maybe 750k really is the right number?
 
B

BenjaminBirdie

Banned
GhaleonEB said:
Unless you live on the coast! Run for your lives!

I think MS's comments (like Moore above) are raising expectations for NPD tomorrow. With talk exceeding the 10m target, 500k would be a letdown. Maybe 750k really is the right number?
Click to expand...

Do they have an inside track? One would imagine they do. Maybe they're working off their own research? Surely if it was bad news coming they'd just talk about tie rates or controller sales or some shit...

...right?
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
BenjaminBirdie said:
Do they have an inside track? One would imagine they do. Maybe they're working off their own research? Surely if it was bad news coming they'd just talk about tie rates or controller sales or some shit...

...right?
Click to expand...
Presumably. How else would Nintendo know how many copies of Zelda were sold in 8 days (454k) or copies Gears of War sold in two weeks (one million) or copies Halo 2 sold in one day (2.38m)? I assume he wouldn't be talking up the figures unless they were on track, or better.

I assume. We'll know in ~30 hours.
 
N

Nerevar

they call me "Man Gravy".
BenjaminBirdie said:
Do they have an inside track? One would imagine they do. Maybe they're working off their own research? Surely if it was bad news coming they'd just talk about tie rates or controller sales or some shit...

...right?
Click to expand...

It's MS, so when Petah makes comments like that he's specifically talking about "shipped", which in the case of MS means "shipped from the wharehouses to retailers". Microsoft is of course going to know the total number of consoles shipped from the wharehouses because they're going to have their own inventory tracking system. IIRC, NPD is tracking a different number (sold-through to customer), so the two aren't going to match up exactly (but there will be some correlation).
 
S

sphinx

the piano man
was this already posted?

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4343&Itemid=2

It gives some preliminary NPD numbers.....


Xbox 360 unit sales topped a minimum of 500K units in the month, probably more, with 200K in Black Friday week. Retailers attributed the increase to strong sales of Gears of War and “chronic press coverage” of supply constraints on PS3. Microsoft is now on track to sell through about 4.25 million units in the US in calendar 2006 with an installed base of around 5 million units.

As is well known, available quantity of PS3 was probably less than 150K units at launch, with a further 50K creeping into the channel in November. The low tie ratio for PS3 is blamed on eBay resale speculation with some retailers reporting less than 0.5 software units per hardware unit. Arcadia says a 600K total sell through for the year is reasonable.

The analyst bases its numbers on retail surveys, although these are less definitive than NPD’s numbers, due out later this week. It says Wii sold about 500K in unit sales in November with a tie ratio of about two per console. Zelda attached at a 75% or better rate. The report says that Nintendo remains on track to deliver about 1.3 million units to retail shelves by year end in the US.

PS2 sales topped 500K units, driven by the $129 price point and Guitar Hero II. PS2 is on track to hit about 4.7 million units in CY 06, which would bring the US total to about 36.5 million by year end. At this point it's not clear if Xbox 360 beat PS2 for the month.

Among the handhelds, DS unit sales topped 600K units, putting it on track to exceed 4.5 million by year end and 8.3 million cumulative. PSP unit sales approximated 350K units, similar to last year’s. PSP is on track to sell about 2.9 million units during the year, driving the installed base to about 6.5 million units. GBA sold 500K in November, which should bring the year end total to approximately 3.1 million units and the cumulative to 35 million
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S

sphinx

the piano man
swhat I quoted may actually not have any similarities to the true numbers???

damn, sorry for that.

they speak with too much authority for a prediction, in my opinion.

this quote:

Xbox 360 unit sales topped a minimum of 500K units in the month, probably more, with 200K in Black Friday week.
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they state it like it's a fact.

they misled me :(
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
cvxfreak said:
^^^^Predictions. Not official.
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Not official, but they did do some channel checks during the month, so it's one recent bullet. So far we have:

-Wedbush staying with 750k prediction for 360
-The report above, with a minimum of 500k forecast for 360
-One MS exec reiterating the 10m target by end of year
-Another MS exec (moore) saying they could beat the target, after a really good holiday month

I think it all points to a really good November for the 360. (Now watch NPD be 450k :lol )


The analyst bases its numbers on retail surveys
Click to expand...
So I think that's better than a forecast before the month started, it's some basis for data.
 
A

Aika'svyse

Junior Member
So wait if it goes under 400,000 that wraps it for 360...no no wait if it goes uder 500k thats wraps it for 360, whats next if it goes under 600k or 750k that wraps it for 360?

edit The 400k was correct, but then again not if your comp keep stumbling
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Aika'svyse said:
So wait if it goes under 400,000 that wraps it for 360...no no wait if it goes uder 500k thats wraps it for 360, whats next if it goes under 600k or 750k that wraps it for 360?

The 400k was correct
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I'd say:

400k = bad news
500k = good news
600k = very good
700k = amazing
>700k = minds blown, cats lovin' dogs, mass hysteria!
 
P

professor_t

Member
GhaleonEB said:
I'd say:

400k = bad news
500k = good news
600k = very good
700k = amazing
>700k = minds blown, cats lovin' dogs, mass hysteria!
Click to expand...


That's a little more realistic.

Honestly, if it only sells 400k, I'm going to cry like Ben Stiller at the end of There's Something About Mary.

MS has ****ed up quite a few things in the past, but right now they're delivering a great product in Xbox360 (software, XBLA, Xboxlive). If it crashes and burns, my tenuous faith in humanity will be lost.
 
B

Bearillusion

Banned
borghe said:
if the 360 goes under 500K for MS, I hate to be cliche but that'll about wrap it up for MS. There would be no way to spin that positively. That being said, I don't see it going under 500K. If it goes to around 750K, quite the opposite, that would definitely show life in the old Redmond monster yet. It would also cement Christmas as a MAJOR system seller without question.
Click to expand...

Fixed. :)
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
phez said:
when will the numbers be released?
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after the market closes in new your tomorrow. that's 4:30 east coast time, 1:30 west coast. that's about 15 and a half hours from now. It usually takes about an hour from then until the hardware totals hit GAF.
 
S

sphinx

the piano man
if the report I quoted is spot on, then I am impressed by the selling power of the gameboy advance. Putting the FF ports aside, it has NOTHING, it is a barren desert. At least the PS2 still has a stream of interesting games.

are the FF ports enough to boost the hardware like that?
 
S

starship

psycho_snake's and The Black Brad Pitt's B*TCH
GhaleonEB said:
I'd say:

400k = bad news
500k = good news
600k = very good
700k = amazing
>700k = minds blown, cats lovin' dogs, mass hysteria!
Click to expand...
Why is 500k good news while GC and XBX almost every November have done that?
~ 500k in November with the release of GoW isn't good news for Microsoft at all.
Just look at 750k analysts prediction to see why 500k isn't good news.
 
Dr. Kitty Muffins

Dr. Kitty Muffins

Member
I love how some people in this thread keep raising the bar hoping to have a negative effect on perceptions of numbers that may turn out good/bad tommorrow. :lol

Its obvious what your doing!
 
S

Striek

Member
sphinx said:
are the FF ports enough to boost the hardware like that?
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No, but the cheap price of the GBA is around the holidays. Compared to last year, 208k oct. vs. 820k nov, 500k would hardly be a big deal.

starship said:
Why is 500k good news while GC and XBX almost every November have done that?
~ 500k in November with the release of GoW isn't good news for Microsoft at all.
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Well, you have to keep in mind expectations vs. reality. There were very high expectations all around at the start of the X360s lifetime, which have since...diminished. And nearly every month we're bombarded with analysts predicting outrageous figures that never materialise, so hitting them would be quite the accomplishment. Having said that, I'd say his is a bit generous, mine would be more like:

~400k: bomba total wow pull the plug
~500k: meh
~600k: oh damn this xbox 360 thing may have something to it
~700: very good
~800k+: oh snap next-gen leader is here
 
DCharlie

DCharlie

And even i am moderately surprised
Relatively.
Click to expand...

yup, the 0 should be "0".

Sony PR : "it's hard to track sales , but all we can say is we have surpassed where we want to be at this point and we are very happy with the response from the US"

MR Q : "So where is it that you are at ... in terms of sales?"

Sony PR : "like i said, it's so hard to tell the actual figures - but we are happy with them..."

MR Q : "Yes... but ... you have to know roughly what you've done in order for you to be happy right?"

Sony PR : "yes, well we know we have surpassed where we want to be at this point..."

MR Q : "..."
 
A

Aika'svyse

Junior Member
starship said:
Why is 500k good news while GC and XBX almost every November have done that?
~ 500k in November with the release of GoW isn't good news for Microsoft at all.
Just look at 750k analysts prediction to see why 500k isn't good news.
Click to expand...
Dude more hefty price tag.
 
S

Square2005

Banned
GhaleonEB said:
I'd say:

400k = bad news
500k = good news
600k = very good
700k = amazing
>700k = minds blown, cats lovin' dogs, mass hysteria!
Click to expand...

So it's like:
<500k = Wii wins next-gen
>500k = X360 wins next-gen
 
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