Support NeoGAF

[Syphon Filter]

Dream big

which part is a dream?

 

[Randolph Freelander]

(Home consoles predictions only, don't care to predict how handhelds will factor in.)


Super HD Twins: same story as this generation, pretty much, as far as how they compete with each other. Microsoft leads in America, competes in Europe, bombs in Japan. Overall lead: toss up.

Welcome to the HD party: Nintendo has a sophomore slump with the Wii followup, does not experience the same level of success as this generation in any region. Respectable, but finishes third in US and Europe and second in Japan.

Overall, the market for home consoles will contract. Other devices and indeed other forms of entertainment will eat away at console share. Sales will be 70-80% of what this generation's output.



It is here that I will point out that my pre- and early-generation predictions didn't turn out so well last time around. I had PS3 as the runaway winner (as did pretty much everybody), with Wii being dead on arrival (oops). So yeah, take my predictions above, print them out, and line your bird cage with them.

 

[Derrick01]

which part is a dream?

Sony even being alive 6 years from now, let alone 1st or 2nd.

 

[Knux-Future]

Man do some of you want Sony to die or something...

geez.

 

[[Clark Gable]]

1. Microsoft
2. Nintendo
3. PC\Steam

Sony dead.

 

[EulaCapra]

Sony:
PSP and PS2 will still see support. Vita dies horribly and I bet Sony will cease making portable hardware in favor of their PS4 getting Cloud gaming and getting a direct Wii U copycat controller. PS4 blesses us with many new IP's. PS4 will do okay but Japanese sales will be surprisingly low due to Wii U being the driving platform for Japanese devs.

Microsoft:
Will have even more success with a bundled-from-the-start Kinect 2. Will be the lead platform for third-party games from Western devs again. Will overtake Wii U sales in North America. Will be largely ignored in Japan. Will be king of multimedia living rooms.

Nintendo:
Will be Number 1 in worldwide console sales again. Wii U doesn't set the world on fire though but that's expected. 3DS lifetime sales will be on track or even surpass GBA lifetime sales. Wii U eShop somehow gets great support from devs worldwide while the retail side with Western games goes from okay to ghost-like again with the exception from Japanese devs, where it's strictly Wii U/3DS.

Pokemon:
MMORPG announced... At end of Wii U's life cycle. Try again, bitches!

 

[Nonoriri]

Man do some of you want Sony to die or something...

geez.

Just take a peek at their post histories.

 

[InvincibleAgent]

Ouya won't even be in the same digits as the other 3.

Not with that ugly controller, anyway.

 

[B-Dubs]

I think Nintendo is going to get the more interesting games, it'll likely be cheaper to produce for so people will be more likely to take a risk. Microsoft and Sony will continue to get the big AAA games and not a whole lot else. All three get multi-platform games.

 

[Syphon Filter]

Sony even being alive 6 years from now, let alone 1st or 2nd.

I am willing to have a friendly bet with anyone that they will be around in 6 years.

 

[Psychological Intellect]

sony on top 100 mil ps4's sold 60 mil vitas
nintendo second mario keepin em alive
microsoft third ain't got no exclusives

 

[PopcornMegaphone]

Overall, I think it will be a very challenging gen for the big three. With limited information, my predictions are the following:


I'm more bearish on Nintendo than most. I don't think the WiiU's gaming pad has the "wow" factor of the Wii's motion controls. Obviously, Nintendo will always have a core following, but I have to wonder if the iPad vs WiiU comparisons will eat into Nintendo's casual base.

Sony is a very cool gamers company, but I really don't think they understand the broader market right now. It seems like they're using a playbook that's 10 years old (hence Vita) and they're making knock-offs of successful competitor products (move). Where is the product leadership that excites the mainstream market? Additionally, the company as a whole is really having difficulties right now. Given this, I think Sony will really struggle next gen.

Microsoft seems like the most progressive company right now. They have a great brands with Live and Kinect that pleases very different market segments. More importantly, they've shown a willingness to push progressive business ideas. I think next gen is going to be very challenging, but I think MS will come out on top in WW sales.


Regardless, I plan to buy all 3 systems.

 

[Orayn]

Microsoft: Proprietors of the box that does Call of Duty, Netflix, and GRAFICS.

Sony: In dire straits, and not the cool "Sultans of Swing" kind.

Nintendo: Perpetually doomed but never dead.

 

[Takao]

My prediction is Ouya becomes a Big 4th.

My prediction: By the end of the generation no one will remember Ouya.

 

[flippedb]

Nintendo = king, yet again. Both Wii U and 3DS sell a bunch.

Microsoft = Nextobx will sell pretty good in the US, not as good as the 360

Sony = am doomed. Vita won't sell, it might not even last 4 years in the market. PS4 will be pretty meh and no, there won't be signs of The Last Guardian.

Also, no HL3

I am willing to have a friendly bet with anyone that they will be around in 6 years.

They will be around

Spoiler

developing for iOS/Android

 

[Syphon Filter]

It's gamecube all over again. People underestimating Sony.

 

[SniperHunter]

1. Microsoft
2. Nintendo
3. PC\Steam

Sony dead.

I don't see Steam growing much to be honest. EA pulled out, Ubisoft has their own store now, Square Enix too working on a store, with so much fragmentation and the lack of big exclusive games. What will be the point of Steam? It will be a Valve game playing service.

EA pullout was a huge blow to Steam IMO. And another problem with Valve is, lack of new games. They are behind the curve in terms of technology and they like to update their ancient games for a long time. This is good, but some gamers are interested in the new shit like Battlefield 4 or CoD Next etc.

 

[Penguin]

I think each of the big 3 have some interesting challenges to overcome going into the next-gen.

Microsoft lacks any significant presence in Japan, and while it didn't hurt them too much this gen, I feel like if Nintendo/Sony can get some type of parity, that we may see less Japanese support for them.
Microsoft has also been coasting for some time now. Sure, they've had Kinect, but they haven't really been cultivating new franchises and studios at the tail end of the generation. And not sure how soon they can get a Halo/Gears game out if each has a title out within the next 6-10 months.

Nintendo has a lot of image problems. Their consoles for the past 3 generations have been seen as lacking in some regards (3rd party support, kiddy, casual-oriented) and with proper marketing is something you can possibly overcome.
The problem is of course getting support. So far, 3rd party releases doesn't seem to be improving on the Wii's too much, and that may force people to be more sheep-ish on the console's prospective.
Also, right now, I think it's really hard to convey their message properly or they've done a poor job of it.

Sony... is in both the best and worst position of the three. They have cultivated a ton of new studios and IPs this gen, but I feel like very few of them have gotten the mainstream appeal of say a Mario or Halo. So eventually when enough games are out will look healthy, but don't have that one game that will force people to buy the console.
They are also bleeding money with the Vita, it is curious to see how their resources go next-gen/handheld.

 

[Syphon Filter]

I don't Steam growing much to be honest. EA pulled out, Ubisoft has their own store now, Square Enix too working on a store, with so much fragmentation and the lack of big exclusive games. What will be the point of Steam? It will be a Valve game playing service.

EA pullout was a huge blow to Steam IMO. And another problem with Valve is, lack of new games. They are behind the curve in terms of technology and they like to update their ancient games for a long time. This is good, but some gamers are interested in the new shit like Battlefield 4 or CoD Next etc.

What? Steam will only get bigger and bigger. EA is irrelevant now. Activision is king and Valve has COD on Steam using steamworks. Ubisoft still brings their games to steam and you wont need any client. btw EA still puts their games on Steam as well. Square only sells ff7 for themselves but they certainly aren't making a steam-like service.

 

[SniperHunter]

Let's be honest here, Japanese market is dead for consoles. It's pretty clear the gamers there are only interested in handheld machines.

 

[Oersted]

My prediction: By the end of this year no one will remember Ouya.

Fixed that for you. Outside the online-world noone has even a clue about ouya anyways.

 

[Takao]

Fixed that for you. Outside the online-world noone has even a clue about ouya anyways.

but isn't ouya supposed to launch in march 2013

 

[flippedb]

Let's be honest here, Japanese market is dead for consoles. It's pretty clear the gamers there are only interested in handheld machines.

Wait for Wii U, man. Wii sold a fuckton there, it's easy to see the market is saturated by now, hence the slow sales.

 

[GavinGT]

Sony

Sony will be out of the games business, and possibly out of business altogether.

Microsoft

Microsoft won't make a fourth console.

Nintendo

Nintendo will continue profiting, but only because they were smart enough to scale down their operations.

 

[SniperHunter]

What? Steam will only get bigger and bigger. EA is irrelevant now. Activision is king and Valve has COD on Steam using steamworks. Ubisoft still brings their games to steam and you wont need any client. btw EA still puts their games on Steam as well. Square only sells ff7 for themselves but they certainly aren't making a steam-like service.

I don't see it, all the major publishers are working on a Steam like service. And EA is anything but irrelevant, Battlefield alone is a huge IP bro...what are you smoking? Ubisoft also launched a store last month.

Activision doesn't put out Blizzard games on Steam, they might launch put CoD games on their own service two years from now....what's stopping them? Diablo 3 sold what 5 million copies? they don't need steam.

I just don't see the growth, I only see fragmentation.

 

[apana]

Nintendo will win most likely, they will see decline from the Wii but still healthy sales.

Sony will be fine, probably 2nd place.

Microsoft will be third due to third console curse, sorry bros.

 

[MrCunningham]

Ouya won't even be in the same digits as the other 3.

It probably won't. But it will still be interesting to see this device go from a crowd sourcing to final release.

As for my predictions... well it is hard to predict what the outcome will be. Back in 2005, nobody would've guessed that the Wii would've been the best selling console of this generation with the PS3 falling behind at number three spot.

• Microsoft did a great job of capturing the hardcore and casual gamers this generation with the Xbox 360 and Kinect (in North America).
  
• The Wii's popularity did trail off near the end of its lifecycle.
  
• The PS3 did pick up in sales but still struggles in some regions of the world, while it does OK in others.
  
• The 3DS exploded in japan, but still hasn't hit those levels in other parts of the world yet.
  
• The PSVita has been a dud just about everywhere, saleswise.
  
• Mobile gaming (iOS and Android) has taken on a life of its own, and PC gaming has been seeing a surge in popularity.

Based on all of that....It could go any direction.

 

[hao chi]

Sony will be in first, Microsoft in second, and Nintendo is doomed.

Spoiler

Nintendo, Sony, Microsoft. That order.

 

[Silly.Mikey]

Sony will be 2nd or maybe even 1st if Nintendo ends up messing up.

No way in hell. Nintendo isnt going anywhere and will be back at gamecube numbers, sony will do better than this gen but will be second to MS again. Sony and MS are "close" now, but imagine what the numbers would be if MS wouldnt have failed misrably in Japan. MS have too much money to not keep buying exclusives and remain on top.

They were 3rd with xbox1, 2nd with 360 and the number 1 is inevitable next gen.

 

[ChosenPredator]

I feel like this is a repeat everyone is always saying microsoft is going to fail in some sort of way, i don't think so, kinect is hadoken to the soul but i think they'll be at most number 2.

 

[Takao]

Wait for Wii U, man. Wii sold a fuckton there, it's easy to see the market is saturated by now, hence the slow sales.

Wii LTD in Japan:
12,533,194

PS3 LTD in Japan:
8,390,130

PS2 LTD in Japan:
21,814,083

PSP LTD in Japan:
19,091,755

DS LTD in Japan:
32,864,966

I dunno about that.

 

[flippedb]

No way in hell. Nintendo isnt going anywhere and will be back at gamecube numbers, sony will do better than this gen but will be second to MS again. Sony and MS are "close" now, but imagine what the numbers would be if MS wouldnt have failed misrably in Japan. MS have too much money to not keep buying exclusives and remain on top.

They were 3rd with xbox1, 2nd with 360 and the number 1 is inevitable next gen.

So, according to you...Microsoft goes first? Like, worldwide? Hahahahahaha aww man! You're so funny, I don't even know why you're in my ignore list.

Wii LTD in Japan:
12,533,194

PS3 LTD in Japan:
8,390,130

PS2 LTD in Japan:
21,814,083

PSP LTD in Japan:
19,091,755

DS LTD in Japan:
32,864,966

I dunno about that.

Oh, well...that's not a lot. Yeah, Japan likes handhelds.

 

[Escape Goat]

Nintendo will go third party. Xbox will dominate the market with paid subs for everything. Sony will sell of its gaming division to recoup losses in other divisions. Rosie O'Donnell will then be elected President of the United States.

 

[MRORANGE]

Nintendo:

Will still do ok, it has stolen the shovelware title from PS2, it's IP's are still strong and will continue to rack in the millions, the only thing it has to worry about is a buyout from Apple.


Microsoft:

Will finally have the ""HTPC"" in the living room, but not the way they expected it, the next xbox is more of a netbox than anything else, it will steam content as well as play downloadble games. With the financial backing from Microsoft it will maintain dibs on third party content such as DLC.


Sony:

Dead, well almost, in the worst case scenario they will go 3rd party like they have with their PS1 games now running in Android, the Playstation brand will be licensed out or they will follow SEGA's model.


Valve:

Still has not released HL3, will face very tough competition in the future, will move into the cloud steam service, may try and work with Sony, it will not work out. Valve will most likely try and stop Apple.


Apple:

has already launched a stealth attack with iPad, iPod, iPhone, all of these devices will be used with the iHDTV, the iHDTV will run iOS, may kill triple AAA+ games.

 

[funkystudent]

There will still be a big three but one of them will be apple.

 

[Psi]

Microsoft will dominate the console market, especially in the U.S.

Sony will do something stupid with the PS4 and end up noticeably behind Microsoft.

Nintendo will return to Gamecube levels of success with the Wii U.

 

[a Master Ninja]

They were 3rd with xbox1, 2nd with 360 and the number 1 is inevitable next gen.

Nope. Xbox sold 24 million, the Gamecube never crossed 22 million.

 

[hachi]

MS conquers North America.
Nintendo conquers Japan.

All that leaves is Europe.

This scenario seems the most reasonable to me. Each of the big three might only become further entrenched in its strongest region (Japan for Nintendo, NA for Microsoft, EU for Sony as they slip further in the homeland).

Let's be honest here, Japanese market is dead for consoles. It's pretty clear the gamers there are only interested in handheld machines.

Then perhaps (but only perhaps) the Wii U will prove to be perfect for that market, in that it sells itself as a hybrid of home and handheld gaming conventions.

 

[AniHawk]

i can't believe so many people think so poorly of sony's chances.

the only big negative for them is that they might stop making handhelds. if that's the case, they'll just be focusing all their studios and energy on one console again.

 

[Syphon Filter]

Microsoft will dominate the console market, especially in the U.S.

Sony will do something stupid with the PS4 and end up noticeably behind Microsoft.

Nintendo will return to Gamecube levels of success with the Wii U.

I don't see how MS can dominate when they are weak in two territories. only Nintendo and Sony can.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

Are you mad?

BC has no bearing at all on the sales of a console, people that care are a minority. Exclusives that no one care about don't sell 4-8 million copies. The Vita price point is a good clue on how Sony will price the PS4. It won't be a very expensive console. And the only thing that can do worst then VITA at this point is the Ngage 2.

So you're saying the PS4 will have an overly expensive proprietary harddrive or games won't run? Because that is the current Vita business model.

 

[bgassassin]

All three consoles will sell less than their predecessor's final numbers.

Along the way multiple "console gaming is doomed" threads will ensue on GAF.

 

[Takao]

Then perhaps (but only perhaps) the Wii U will prove to be perfect for that market, in that it sells itself as a hybrid of home and handheld gaming conventions.

Except it doesn't replace a handheld. It's only usable within a short range of the physical Wii U. That won't replace those who play PSPs, or 3DSs on the trains going to work and school.

 

[BluePigGanon]

Sony
Sony will give up on handhelds when it realizes not nearly enough people want a dedicated gaming handheld anymore (they want a swiss army knife device, which mean Apple or Android) unless it's from Nintendo. PS4 will end up 3rd place, 2nd best case scenario (i.e., Nintendo flops). Future PlayStations will be multimedia streaming boxes and/or built into their TVs/licensed to be built into other manufacturers' TVs.

Nintendo
Wii U won't set the world on fire like the Wii did. Dropping price of the Wii just gives it a second life as a console for casuals, and will cannibalize Wii U sales a little. Nintendo does well, enough to beat Sony, but has to work a little to be there. 3DS sales figures never blow anyone's mind but it continues to do okay all gen long.

Microsoft
Tightens its grip on NA console market with a solid box than has a decent combination of power, price and multimedia features. Potential for huge growth is smothered by the fact they won't open up XBLA to make it easier for devs, who continue to migrate to iOS devices and the Ouya (which is moderately successful). Does better in Japan than it did this cycle, but that's not saying much.

Apple
Releases a quasi-Ouya/console/Apple TV thingie that your iPad or iPhone can interact with. Will play Mac games. Sorta interesting and will sell okay, but not threaten MS or Nintendo (aside from further drying up XBLA).

 

[Silly.Mikey]

I don't see how MS can dominate when they are weak in two territories. only Nintendo and Sony can.

They already do. Theyve been outselling sony and nintendo consistently even WITH the weak territories.

 

[The Technomancer]

• Microsoft continues their move into the casual space and emerges as the frontrunner on the console side
• Nintendo has an identity crisis and tries and fails to capture both casual and hardcore gamers, but does pretty decent overall. Probably comes in second if we're just talking consoles, but definitely comes in first if we include handhelds.
• Sony...I honestly do not know.

 

[SniperHunter]

i can't believe so many people think so poorly of sony's chances.

the only big negative for them is that they might stop making handhelds. if that's the case, they'll just be focusing all their studios and energy on one console again.

Sony is stupid, they shouldn't have launched Vita in the first place. Especially since they took such a massive ass whooping with the PS3.

All that Vita R&D, manufacturing, marketing, game development money should have gone directly to either the PS3 or PS4.

 

[Mlatador]

Nintendo 1st with 140 million units sold. Wii U will become another PS2.

 

[Schnei871]

Every company will find their own segment of the market and enjoy equal amounts of success.

Hurray!

 

[Syphon Filter]

They already do. Theyve been outselling sony and nintendo consistently even WITH the weak territories.

Really? I need some proof.