Well said...
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July 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes August 9th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Well said...
ORAS = Omega Ruby Alpha Sapphire
slavesnyder
Member
I have this feeling since the start of this gen that the handbrake is pulled. And that, for sure, in 1 or 2 months the stream of high quality game diversity will finally be set free.
Still waiting.
But I'm sure in 1 or 2 months...
Top 3 in the All-SKUs combined chart or Invidual SKUs chart?
CosmicQueso
Member
DriftingSpirit
Member
I concur.
PS4 and X1 will be three years old this November. It seems like they've been out for a while but they will just be hitting the half way mark.
LordRaptor
Member
They're about to get end of lifed by their own successor-but-not-really-a-successor-but-totally-a-successors though.
Mister Megative
Banned
Willing to bet the impending Neo is finally taking a toll on PS4 sales. October should be an amazing month for PS4. August will be great for Xbox One.
It's the summer. It's slow. 8th gen consoles have followed a very clear pattern: slow summer sales, gangbuster holiday sales. Same as every gen. Not sure why anyone is concerned.
It's the summer. It's slow. 8th gen consoles have followed a very clear pattern: slow summer sales, gangbuster holiday sales. Same as every gen. Not sure why anyone is concerned.
slavesnyder
Member
If they don't cut the price to flank the neo and give a better entry for VR it would be clear that Boyes took all of Sony's common sense with him.
DriftingSpirit
Member
If they were getting exclusive software, yeah. However, they aren't.
Indeed. I look forward to their general direction with the PS brand for the rest of this year into next. I won't really focus on Neo but rather everything as a whole.
Yep.
Same old, same old and besides, Gravity Rush 2 will save PS4 this holiday anyway.
LordRaptor
Member
If they were getting exclusive software, yeah. However, they aren't.
Their PR will repeatedly say that due to the Osborne effect right up until the point exclusive software is released, at which point they will maneuver to how much their customers and development partners were really pushing to be allowed to utilise that extra power.
It was a slow month.
PS4 is down yoy by a good margin.
XB1 is still down notwithstanding the 250$ fire sale price and the heavy bundling.
Those are poor results and who's on top by 10k doesn't matter much.
For August XB1 will stay ahead, we'll see with what kind of margin considering the stock of the Slim.
September onwards Sony will be really aggressive with price cuts, new models, Neo, PSVR launch so expect huge sales for them.
PS4 is down yoy by a good margin.
XB1 is still down notwithstanding the 250$ fire sale price and the heavy bundling.
Those are poor results and who's on top by 10k doesn't matter much.
For August XB1 will stay ahead, we'll see with what kind of margin considering the stock of the Slim.
September onwards Sony will be really aggressive with price cuts, new models, Neo, PSVR launch so expect huge sales for them.
Take this to the other thread, please. We don't need this shit here. Most of us here don't personally care who wins or loses. We're in it for sales analysis and discussions.
Primethius
Banned
I agree with your point about the pattern but to me, I think the price point of the PS4 combined with the lack of big releases is a big factor as well. Seems it's a bit past due for a price drop, and I wonder how it would've done for the entire year sales wise if they had slashed it down to $299 earlier this year.
slavesnyder
Member
They are just keeping the balance between selling and earning.
Mister Megative
Banned
Mister Megative
Banned
Chobel
Member
XB1 ASP was $258? I thought the $249 price only happened in the last week.
I admire your optimism everytime.
What did PS3 generally come bundled with, if anything?
Because Xbox One had things like this bundled into that $258 ASP:
Halo 5 LE+Name your game (1 game choice)+$50 gift card+extra controller+Forza Horizon 2.
That almost looks like a console giveaway.
Just the person I was looking for - think I missed your early thoughts in the thread but I was wondering if you could comment on stock level comparisons between the XO and XOS - just wondering how much stock you got of the XOS (to qualify 'sold out') and if XO (which I presume is EOL and being replaced by XOS) still has significant stock levels even after all these sales.
XO moved, but I wonder how much is out there in the channel
EDIT: Insight like yours is the only way we will see how differing SKUs do comparatively so its appreciated
Shouldnt we be expecting the PS4 to sell better YTD so seeing this YOY drop (did PS4 do overly well in July 2015 or actually badly this month?) Im expecting a price drop to keep sales growth, I presume Sony was hoping to wait until Neo launched to do so.
Regards $299, is the PS4 the least (officially) price dropped console LTD? It seems to do well compared to the other big seller consoles while not needing as much price stimulus...
ps3ud0 8)
gundamkyoukai
Member
PS4 will take around the same amount of time as PS3 to get to $300 .
Still PS3 drop $300 in 3 years and PS4 would have only drop $100.
Price point wise and timeline wise Sony has not really be aggressive with PS4 price.
I agree with analysis it's not a good trend....
But do you think content is the issue here? I mean there are still plenty of games available IMO, esp when you factor in average attach ratios and the stand flair of games that the more "casual" audience buys (Madden, FIFA, COD, etc)........
I'm not expert at all, just trying to fit puzzle pieces, but I see this gen overall sales being more like N64/PS1 era or maybe sniffing the PS2 era. I think we are just seeing sales now to the core audience that are interested in consoles, and it just really isn't much different now than it was 15-20 years ago..........
I think why it's going back down is because PS2 and the 360/Wii had "extras" to bring in groups that aren't interested in the standard console gaming and the three boxes we see now don't have that. EDIT: and of course MObile eating into handheld console marketspace
Are Sony still just rolling with the $350 COD bundle as their main SKU?
It's really been long enough, thought UC4 would be an additional bundle for variety sake but I rarely keep up with these kind of promotions in USA.
I guess Neo is what their banking on to switch things in terms of new bundles and lowering vanilla PS4 price.
That was announced a few days ago. Was looking, and the only previous way to get the n3DS was the Animal Crossing bundle for $220 last Fall, right? Maybe the new official tiering will be $175 for n3DSXL and $150 for n3DS. I've actually been considering the SM3DLand one for the household at that price for the faceplates, but it'll probably be cheaper at Christmas and Black Friday shopping.
Also, the only people to predict above 175K for 3DS were both at 190K. (Ombala and MANUELF)
Mister Megative
Banned
I admire your optimism everytime.
It's not optimism, just simple facts.
And it's been fine for them so far. Yes, they are down YoY in the US - but what about WW? and IF Neo is released this fall and a price drop, I expect US YoY to be up.
Primethius
Banned
PS4 did bad this month and last. Last month was definitely due to a lack of big releases. This month was probably a bit of everything including stiff completion pricing wise.
Good point. The fiscal report for the last quarter actually indicated that they shipped more PS4s then last year, so maybe price isn't as big of a factor in terms of market saturation in the ROTW.
Don't take it the wrong way, I was sincere when I said that. I mean, yeah, we expected sales to be slow. But everytime they are, you remind the downers that it is a slow month. Now I'm not joining the consoles are doomed bandwagon, just saying I do appreciate your upbeat look to slow sales.
gundamkyoukai
Member
Yes it has work out good for them so far .
Just saying if they were more aggressive we would have already gotten to $299 .
Next month we should see a price drop to $299 .
It would be fun to see what happens if they drop it to $250 but i don't expect that lol.
andthereitis.gif
So if you were Sony....what would you do?
I don't think there is a right or wrong answer (well, maybe some wrong ones, but absolutely different shades of right) to the question.
I think they are doing the right thing. And for the comment of why is the main bundle the CoD bundles?
What other big game in the US would you pick to have as the main bundle this last spring and summer? I love UC4 to death, but c'mon now, this is US, not Europe, it wasn't going to move a lot of boxes.
CoD was still the best choice until whatever bundle they announce next.
EDIT to clarify:WHile I'm quoting Primethius I don't know if you personally were one who spoke of the CoD bundle, but just throwing the question out there for those who were questioning it.
Mister Megative
Banned
I know man, sorry if I came off as short
the refusal to see the reality of sales trends in these threads just frustrates me. Been the same damn thing for years and years. Dunno why people can't just accept that consoles are fine, and that these are always the slow months.Sorry I cocked up my terminology - I basically meant with PS4 is just dropping below 2015 sales YTD (when Sony are forecasting higher sales largely due to PS4 Neo launch), having a YOY drop in July is a surprise (unless July 2015 was unique, which from Welfares info it wasnt) so it seems we are getting to the point where a price drop is kinda overdue.
Its only a single point of reference but I dont think it should be ignored.
ps3ud0 8)
Primethius
Banned
CoD has absolutely been the single best choice they could do outside maybe GTA, especially for the NA market.
I'm convinced it's a huge part of the reason the $349 price point has worked out for them as well as it has here.
Obliterator
Member
It's pretty crazy how long the PS4 has held its price point. Almost 3 years in and the machine has only dropped by $50. That is kinda insane.
To be fair, fortunately, in recent times, I've seen much fewer "consoles are doomed" posts. There are still posts about people being surprised that the consoles didn't do well in the slower months, but I find those fine.I know man, sorry if I came off as short
Mister Megative
Banned
Yeah, and the fact it's continued its sales trajectory at this price is bonkers. The lack of a meaningful price cut+the confirmation of Neo is causing a lull, which is compounded by the regular slow summer period. A price cut down to $299 for the vanilla model when the Neo hits will provide a nice, healthy boost.
No BUY FIRE EMBLEM in this comment? You disappoint me.
On a serius note, hell didn't rememb 3DS was so expensive last year... yeah, it's kinda crazy Nintendo drop the price just now.
Imagine if PSVR becomes hugely successful with the mainstream gamers too.Just wait until Neo comes out and Vanilla gets a cut this fall:
slavesnyder
Member
You shouldn't eat mussles in months without "r".I know man, sorry if I came off as short
Same goes for taking NPD months too seriously.
Annual PS4 lead starting at 0 each year (to compare relative performance each year):
Overall PS4 lead as a % of XB1 total. (More telling on relative userbase size than a simple numeric difference as the total userbase continues to increase.)
PS4+XB1 vs. PS3+360 from launch.
PS4+XB1+Wii U vs. PS3+360+Wii vs. PS2+XBX+GCN from launch.
Not posted, but if you look at just PS4+XB1 vs. PS2+XBX from launch, the totals are almost identical with PS2+XBX holding a slight advantage.
Overall PS4 lead as a % of XB1 total. (More telling on relative userbase size than a simple numeric difference as the total userbase continues to increase.)
PS4+XB1 vs. PS3+360 from launch.
PS4+XB1+Wii U vs. PS3+360+Wii vs. PS2+XBX+GCN from launch.
Not posted, but if you look at just PS4+XB1 vs. PS2+XBX from launch, the totals are almost identical with PS2+XBX holding a slight advantage.
Imagine if PSVR becomes hugely successful with the mainstream gamers too.
Lmao
The link below shows a pretty exhaustive list of the price cuts for Gen's 5, 6, 7, 8. Currently, the PS4 and Wii are pretty close in terms of price cuts (one $50 price cut each), but if the PS4 gets one this holiday, then it looks like the Wii will be the least cut (in terms of dollars reduced; while price % reduction is another story), since its second price cut didn't come until 2015 (or about 8.5 years on the market).
http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/Price_cuts