I wasn't really even serious, bruh. The image just fitted too well with beast mode.
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July 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes August 9th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Mister Megative
Banned
I guess I just don't get the surprise (at the PS4, anyway). July is one of the slowest months of the year, plus no big game releases, plus a $350 sticker almost 3 years in. If anything, I'm incredibly impressed it's continued to sell as well as it has this far in without a major price cut.
And I find it hilarious that people actually think a console which sold 1.7 million units just last November is doomed.
I wasn't really even serious, bruh. The image just fitted too well with beast mode.
It's not a bad discussion point. (at least in my eyes.)
I said in my post to Cosmic, that this gen unlike the previous two, doesn't have anything outside of traditional console gaming to lure in the outside crowd. VR could be it.
Mister Megative
Banned
Great stuff, Donny. It's nice to see how much better he big two are doing this gen combined compared to last. Imagine what that last chart would look like if the Wii U was selling at peak Wii levels.
And I wasn't aware the PS4+XB1 total was on the level with PS2+XBX. That's DAMN impressive.
CosmicQueso
Member
Hey! These are really great questions and discussion points. I'm going to come back to this in a bit, but I need to go do some math and stuff first.
Can't argue with that. In fact, I've found discussions on the possible success of VR very interesting since last year. I'm just saying my reply to your post was a joke. On a more serious note, I think PSVR will be moderately successful, but not nearly enough to make everyone and their grandmothers want to own it like the Wii did.
True, the PS4 needs another price drop soon. I believe it is said that $299 is the sweet spot for most consumers.
theprodigy
Member
No BUY FIRE EMBLEM in this comment? You disappoint me.
On a serius note, hell didn't rememb 3DS was so expensive last year... yeah, it's kinda crazy Nintendo drop the price just now.
more like buy Conquest specifically
and whatever pre-3DS games you can find! especially Radiant Dawn
Mister Megative
Banned
So.......from someone I trust. Store location is omitted. Take from this what you will:
"So, funny stuff. I work at the highest grossing (redacted; a major games retailer) in the (redacted; major city) area and these are some current pre-order #'s - multiplats are total across systems with only CoD leading on X1:
XCOM 2: 4 (all on PS4)
Forza Horizon 3: 3 (2 regular, 1 ultimate)
Mafia 3: 14 (4 on X1)
Gears 4: 3 (2 regular, 1 ultimate)
Battlefield 1: 77 (22 X1)
CoD: AW: 92 (51 X1)
Titanfall 2: 15 (3 X1)
Deus Ex: 38 (11 X1)
Gravity Rush 2: 9
Horizon: Zero Dawn: 61
No Man's Sky had 72 total which more than half showed up for the midnight release. I wish fucking Xbox people would support their shit so I could get them at midnight without having to go digital to do so. That Gears # is troubling. I know retail isn't the main measuring stick but considering Gears has always pulled closer to 100 pre-orders at our store - even Judgment and the Ultimate Edition, fucking 3 with only a month and a half to launch is fucking terrible."
Again, from someone I trust. Anecdotal, but interesting.
"So, funny stuff. I work at the highest grossing (redacted; a major games retailer) in the (redacted; major city) area and these are some current pre-order #'s - multiplats are total across systems with only CoD leading on X1:
XCOM 2: 4 (all on PS4)
Forza Horizon 3: 3 (2 regular, 1 ultimate)
Mafia 3: 14 (4 on X1)
Gears 4: 3 (2 regular, 1 ultimate)
Battlefield 1: 77 (22 X1)
CoD: AW: 92 (51 X1)
Titanfall 2: 15 (3 X1)
Deus Ex: 38 (11 X1)
Gravity Rush 2: 9
Horizon: Zero Dawn: 61
No Man's Sky had 72 total which more than half showed up for the midnight release. I wish fucking Xbox people would support their shit so I could get them at midnight without having to go digital to do so. That Gears # is troubling. I know retail isn't the main measuring stick but considering Gears has always pulled closer to 100 pre-orders at our store - even Judgment and the Ultimate Edition, fucking 3 with only a month and a half to launch is fucking terrible."
Again, from someone I trust. Anecdotal, but interesting.
well since i can play gears 4 on pc if i buy digitil i wont be buying the retail version, so the preorders being so low maybe has something to do with that
If NX is primarily a handheld or not classified as a console or whatever, will Sony and MS ignore it when parading around victory statements?
Seeing how consistently strong the PS4 has been up until now, I don't think it has needed any major price cuts. No point in losing money for no reason. Seems like the rumored upcoming one will be appreciated, which is just good timing on Sony's part.
Seeing how consistently strong the PS4 has been up until now, I don't think it has needed any major price cuts. No point in losing money for no reason. Seems like the rumored upcoming one will be appreciated, which is just good timing on Sony's part.
Primethius
Banned
GR2 confirmed bigger seller then Gears.
Xenoflare
Member
Wow, I know that PS4 has overall multiplat advantage but not this much O.O
Is this in the U.S if you don't mind sharing?
I had no idea NMS was *that* hype, I'm really out of the loop.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Yeah, GR2 is the big news there. Show them what you can do, Kat!
Horizon: Zero Dawn doing real good too.
Horizon: Zero Dawn doing real good too.
Elitist1945
Member
Woah! Thats a lot of Horizon pre-orders.
Mister Megative
Banned
Yeah, US.
Thank you for the trouble, I knew Wii would be at top as it was a perfect storm of a console.
Im unsure if that link is fully up-to-date but it gives credence to my initial thought
ps3ud0 8)
Not sure what to gleam from that data. At first glance it looks like NMS will be doing better than lots of other releases such as Deus Ex which seems very doubtful. Does your friend happen to have the Madden numbers?
LordRaptor
Member
Wow. My takeaway from that data is almost the literal opposite.
Amazon monthly still has a great track record for predicting the relative rankings of US consoles. It predicted July's Xbox One win:
https://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2016-07/videogames
#9: Xbox One 1TB Console - Tom Clancy's The Division Bundle
#22: PlayStation 4 500GB Console - Call of Duty Black Ops III Bundle
#32: Xbox One S 2TB Console - Launch Edition
#61: Xbox One 500GB Console - Gears of War: Ultimate Edition Bundle
#80: Xbox One 1TB Console - 3 Games Holiday Bundle (Gears of War: Ultimate Edition + Rare Replay + Ori and the Blind Forest)
#91: Sony PlayStation 4 500GB Console
https://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2016-07/videogames
#9: Xbox One 1TB Console - Tom Clancy's The Division Bundle
#22: PlayStation 4 500GB Console - Call of Duty Black Ops III Bundle
#32: Xbox One S 2TB Console - Launch Edition
#61: Xbox One 500GB Console - Gears of War: Ultimate Edition Bundle
#80: Xbox One 1TB Console - 3 Games Holiday Bundle (Gears of War: Ultimate Edition + Rare Replay + Ori and the Blind Forest)
#91: Sony PlayStation 4 500GB Console
If the numbers are true (gotta take non verified data with a grain of salt), and even counting that it's purely anecdotal, holy crap at Forza numbers.
I knew racers were doing rather poorly in the US, but that's .... wow.
If Abdiel is around, any comments on GTS/ Forza pre orders? Is racing indeed THAT dead?
Mister Megative
Banned
Huh? How??
Interesting stuff. I'll have to go check my store's specific numbers, and then district numbers for reference to compare.
Horizon doing well in another chain is really exciting for me, I couldn't shut up about that game around e3. I really want it to be good.
Nms did well for us. Quite a few pick ups. I'm sure it will do well in that regard.
Gears is definitely not at the level of previous titles, but is doing better than those numbers in my home store.
I mean, the trend of any third party title other than the big shooters and sports titles has really skewed heavily towards ps4. Dues ex is no contest, for example.
Those asking about the Xbox one S. Um... It hasn't sold out in any of my stores in a 200 mile range. We got our preordered ones, and solid shipments, but no store sold out, and I haven't seen a restock as yet, though I'll double check on the stores that got smaller numbers.
We're still working through all these old bundles for the originals though. The an bundle, the tomb raider bundle, division bundle, gears of war ultimate bundle... Most of my stores in my district have a mish mash of 2-4 of these sitting around.
LordRaptor
Member
Sales figures exceeding population growth is an indicator of a strong industry.
Sales figures at population growth is an indicator of a stagnant industry.
Sales figures below population growth is an indicator of a dying industry.
For current sales to be below 15 year old comparative numbers is... well, not what I would call DAMN impressive.
e:
Again, your interpretation is radically different to mine. doesn't mean I'm right and you're wrong, and I'm not trying to start an argument.
slavesnyder
Member
Aren't people mostly preordering stuff that's an event, something special?
Forza comes around as surely and regularly as the annual dentist appointment. It will have the highest sales/preorders ratio of the games listed.
Lowest will be gravity rush.
Mister Megative
Banned
Thanks for the input Abdiel. I'm in the same boat on Horizon. I'm more hyped for that than any other game, and word on the street says Guerilla has something really special on their hands.
Mister Megative
Banned
He said it was almost identical. Considering the PS2 is the best selling console of all time......it's pretty damn impressive, considering PS4 sales are tracking ahead of it (at least, they were. Think they still are). But yeah. Nothing bad here at all.
Also, the big two are tracking 40% over their predecessors compared to last gen. Not sure where the pessimism is there. Just my two cents.
Just looking at the U.S., PS4 is ~4m behind where PS2 was at the same point. In the PS2/XBX first 33 months, the split was ~2:1 for PS2 over XBX. The split for PS4/XB1 is much closer (~1.15:1), so whereas PS2 was carrying the gen then, PS4 and XB1 are carrying it together now.
Also as a totally speculative opinion, I think the PS4/XB1 userbase is much more traditional/core than the PS2 userbase was in its gen, so for publishers pushing traditional/core type games, they may prefer PS4+XB1's base over PS2+XBX's.
Also as a totally speculative opinion, I think the PS4/XB1 userbase is much more traditional/core than the PS2 userbase was in its gen, so for publishers pushing traditional/core type games, they may prefer PS4+XB1's base over PS2+XBX's.
Welfare
Member
Even more data was just posted thanks to Aquamarine! Software sales and even bundles.
From Aquamarine at VG Chartz / Gamrconnect
"Some observations I made when looking at July 2016 physical sales:
Console/handheld software sales were only $156 million, down -13% YOY. In general, those are really weak physical software sales, lowest since the turn of the century.
Although:
PS4 software was down -3% YOY (-46% MOM)
WIU sofware was down +0% YOY (-33% MOM)
XBO software was down -3% YOY (-42% MOM)
So even though the industry was down -13% YOY (-35% MOM), 8th-gen console hardware largely held steady.
Best-sellers of July 2016:
Call of Duty: Black Ops III was the number-one best physical seller in July 2016 with 194K (including bundle units) and 64K (excluding bundle units)
Minecraft: >175K, top of the physical non-bundle charts
Grand Theft Auto V: 172K, actually up YOY (GTA July 2015: 171K)
Monster Hunter Generations: >165K
Pokemon Ruby + Sapphire (right behind Monster Hunter according to CosmicQueso on NeoGAF)
LEGO Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Overwatch: 135K
NBA 2K16: 111K
Titles that collapsed in their second month of sale (all below 50K):
1) Mirror's Edge Catalyst (Collapsed at retail from 99K in June to to below 40K in July, high digital shares contribute to its physical decline)
2) Tokyo Mirage Sessions #FE (significantly below 35K, I thought it would have legs because it launched late in the month but...nope, it's DOA)
3) Kirby: Planet Robobot (Legs were a LOT weaker than expected, and other 3DS catalog outside of Pokemon was also weak).
Sorry guys, DOOM 2016 declined significantly from June. MLB 16 The Show is still holding steady at >60K.
Bundle sales:
PS4:
1) Call of Duty: Black Ops III: ~130K
2) Uncharted 4: A Thief's End: Just below 30,000
= PS4 total: 161K
Xbox One:
1) Choose Your Game
2) Tom Clancy's The Division
Gears of War: Ultimate Edition: 36,000"
From Aquamarine at VG Chartz / Gamrconnect
"Some observations I made when looking at July 2016 physical sales:
Console/handheld software sales were only $156 million, down -13% YOY. In general, those are really weak physical software sales, lowest since the turn of the century.
Although:
PS4 software was down -3% YOY (-46% MOM)
WIU sofware was down +0% YOY (-33% MOM)
XBO software was down -3% YOY (-42% MOM)
So even though the industry was down -13% YOY (-35% MOM), 8th-gen console hardware largely held steady.
Best-sellers of July 2016:
Call of Duty: Black Ops III was the number-one best physical seller in July 2016 with 194K (including bundle units) and 64K (excluding bundle units)
Minecraft: >175K, top of the physical non-bundle charts
Grand Theft Auto V: 172K, actually up YOY (GTA July 2015: 171K)
Monster Hunter Generations: >165K
Pokemon Ruby + Sapphire (right behind Monster Hunter according to CosmicQueso on NeoGAF)
LEGO Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Overwatch: 135K
NBA 2K16: 111K
Titles that collapsed in their second month of sale (all below 50K):
1) Mirror's Edge Catalyst (Collapsed at retail from 99K in June to to below 40K in July, high digital shares contribute to its physical decline)
2) Tokyo Mirage Sessions #FE (significantly below 35K, I thought it would have legs because it launched late in the month but...nope, it's DOA)
3) Kirby: Planet Robobot (Legs were a LOT weaker than expected, and other 3DS catalog outside of Pokemon was also weak).
Sorry guys, DOOM 2016 declined significantly from June. MLB 16 The Show is still holding steady at >60K.
Bundle sales:
PS4:
1) Call of Duty: Black Ops III: ~130K
2) Uncharted 4: A Thief's End: Just below 30,000
= PS4 total: 161K
Xbox One:
1) Choose Your Game
2) Tom Clancy's The Division
Gears of War: Ultimate Edition: 36,000"
DriftingSpirit
Member
Nice for MLB.
DOOM sales figures are kind of surprising as the game was on sale for most of last month and word of mouth continues to be very positive.
CosmicQueso
Member
Surprised at the lack of commentary on Battleborn.
Mister Megative
Banned
You're supposed to be quiet during a funeral.
slavesnyder
Member
It never lived.
Why beat a dead horse.
Mister Megative
Banned
The coldest savagery of all.
3 digits?
ethomaz
Banned
PS4 leading on Titanfall 2???
DriftingSpirit
Member
CosmicQueso
Member
Drifting plz
MH4U first month was < 195k at retail, but it sold 290k including digital.
I mean 165K at retail for MH4G is very solid actually.
Also, cosmic said ORAS was close to Monster Hunter, this mean ORAS did incredible this month...
Not that big of a surprise since the PS4 has leading alot of muliplat games.
Would be interesting to see Mass Effect numbers.
Question straight ignored by Abdiel lol.
At least Slavesnyder gave me a sign... Thanks Slavesnyder!
My bad. I'm at work, on my phone, I missed the question. I just saw it.
Currently, we have more orders for gts. Not a ton, yet, but growing at a gradual pace. Gt does a lot of its numbers overseas though, so I'll be interested to see how it goes.
Definitely more than forza, though.
Bruno MB
Member
Code:
[Sep, 2004] PS2 Monster Hunter (Capcom) < 20,000
[May, 2006] PSP Monster Hunter Freedom (Capcom) < 20,000
[Aug, 2007] PSP Monster Hunter Freedom 2 (Capcom) - I don't have data for this title.
[Jun, 2009] PSP Monster Hunter Freedom Unite (Capcom) - 68,768
[Apr, 2010] WIU Monster Hunter 3 Tri (Capcom) - 126,000
[Mar, 2013] 3DS + WIU Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate (Capcom) < 130,000
[Feb, 2015] 3DS Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate (Capcom) < 195,000 (290,000 including digital sales)
[Jul, 2016] 3DS Monster Hunter Generations (Capcom) > 165,000DriftingSpirit
Member
Hey, spade is a spade and all that jazz.