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NPD January 2012 Sales Results [Up2: MW3 Sales, (Down ~50% Over BLOPS, But Still #1)]

LuchaShaq

Banned
I forgot this too. One year, I got a 12 month gold card for $15 bucks, WOO.

Never paid full price for a subscription either. Almost every person I know who uses XBL gold gets discounted 12 month cards from retailers like Amazon during the very frequent sales.

Meanwhile, on the subject of next gen prices... publishers have grumbled about games being too cheap already, in part to try and help justify subscription services like COD Elite. I feel it's mostly just marketing diversion than indication of a serious plan to charge $70 as the new base price for software.

But, I do have a bad feeling that we could see a stealth price raise for big releases in the form of the "special" edition having more and more of what should be the base content of the game for $69.95. The $59.95 "standard" edition would become more and more gimped.

Hell, we've already seen that this gen. Several key titles have more or less had an unreasonable amount of basic content locked to a special edition. Dragon Age II comes to mind.

On the other hand, the "season pass" concept could become more the standard. FYI, I'm not sure that would be a bad thing. Generally, it guarantees you're paying for content that hasn't been created yet. It also offers a roadmap of how the game will be supported after launch. And a few of the season passes this gen have been pretty good deals for the amount of content you get over time.


Jack prices to 70 I don't care. Online passes have already caused me to go from 8-12 60$ games a year to 1-2 new non steam sale games a year. Bring it to 70 so I never buy a new game ever again lol.
 
Petrichor said:
Microsoft has done a fantastic job of leveling the playing field with the playstation brand this generation (remember at the start of this generation resident evil, grand theft auto, devil may cry, tekken, final fantasy, and metal gear solid were all Playstation exclusives)
Calling some of those PlayStation exclusive is a stretch. GameCube was the premiere Resident Evil console last generation, though PS2 has exclusive spinoffs. Xbox ended up with all the GTA games, though they weren't all launched together. Xbox had Metal Gear Solid 2, while GameCube got The Twin Snakes.
pieatorium said:
Um everyone knows this? Like you showed it happens every year.
I've got to assume not everyone does, with comments like
"I guess this explains the quiet price drop for the 3DS"
"3DS can't maintain doing good numbers"
"'dat' 3DS drop; I mean, WOW! :("
 

Ptaaty

Member
Its time for the next gen, and it needs to focus at first on "core gamers". Two years of this will allow dropping to lower prices, bringing in casuals.

Right now software is stagnating, hardware is stagnant as hell.

I have a Kinect, bought it for the kid....gimmick. Like the Wii, Kinect is a gimmick, amazing way to get a nice bump in sales, get the casuals to buy, but it just doesn't hold the interest like good normal gaming. Yep it is cool...it has uses for some niches, but it doesn't really get used a month later.

Almost all my game buying is now PC, Steam. I am not just about better graphics, but at this point, consoles have little innovation and no graphics leaps to bring the excitement.

New gens tend to bring out new IPs...usually innovation but rough around the edges. Then a bunch of refinement / best part of the cycle, the middle. Now we are in an extended trough of the end - every game looks decent but the jumps aren't there. Few new big IPs - seems even if a decent one comes up, the saturation with established IPs crushes them.
 

donny2112

Member
This is going to seem completely random, but does anyone have August 2004 software sales (in dollars), preferably with a citation?

Have notes showing publisher breakdown that month, and EA was at $141m with 41.7% marketshare => ~$335m. Will see if can find a citation.

Edit:
GAF thread with more publishers and previous months for reference.

Edit2:
Should've gone more with the raw result of $141m @ 41.7% marketshare. :) August 2004 software sales were $337m from GameSpot.
 

loosus

Banned
I doubt I am even going to get consoles after this generation. Portable stuff, especially tablets, are just too convenient, and really, if I'm not buying anything for my current consoles, I'm not sure why exactly that would change for new ones. The problem is that they are not putting out truly fun games at decent prices...and I don't want to buy another $300 machine where that will continue to happen.
 
The entire industry is sinking because of lack of new consoles.

Yes but only for dedicated consoles. The problem is the typical consumer, after they get a dozen games, they are done. They are thinking, "Why buy another shooter for this box? I already have one." Then soon as a new box comes out, "Ah, a new box! I wonder if they have any shooters?"
 

Kai Dracon

Writing a dinosaur space opera symphony
Yes but only for dedicated consoles. The problem is the typical consumer, after they get a dozen games, they are done. They are thinking, "Why buy another shooter for this box? I already have one." Then soon as a new box comes out, "Ah, a new box! I wonder if they have any shooters?"

One must wonder though - how much of the "we can't make new IPs after the start of a new generation" is a self-fulfilling prophesy? Does the average person become disinterested because there are never fresh games, and so they give up watching or waiting for them?

The industry desperately tries to "dial in" what it thinks are the 2-3 big things each gen then proceeds to run those genres into the ground.

I don't know how many mainstream game consumers this applies to, but in my time I have seen a pattern where people buy a console, try a few games of various genres, then get bored of the console where there is nothing really new or interesting. Then it is futile; if a fresh game does come along every so often, the average person has already put the console away and it's collecting dust.
 

UberTag

Member
Final Fantasy XIII-2 was released outside of the January NPD data collection window. Sales will be factored into February's results.
February's a fun month.

New Final Fantasy game.
New Uncharted game.
New Resident Evil game.
UFC Undisputed 3 will be the best-reviewed new release of the month.

Gaming audiences will collectively shrug their shoulders at all of this and scoop up more Call of Duty and Just Dance. Nothing worth buying until Mass Effect hits in March. Gotta shoot things. Can't get enough shooting. Gotta keep playing Call of Duty until we can shoot more stuff in Mass Effect world. Everyone else just keeps buying dance games and playing on their smartphones.

What the world needs is a dancing game where you shoot stuff? Why hasn't this combination happened yet? I want to pull off dance moves that charge up my guns so I can simultaneously blast zombies while doing the splits. When do I get to play this game? Is it on my iPhone?
 

fernoca

Member
What the world needs is a dancing game where you shoot stuff? Why hasn't this combination happened yet? I want to pull off dance moves that charge up my guns so I can simultaneously blast zombies while doing the splits. When do I get to play this game? Is it on my iPhone?
Space Channel 5 and P.N.03 kinda did it.

gTtC4.gif


No zombies and no motion-related controls though. :p
 

Penguin

Member
February's a fun month.

New Final Fantasy game.
New Uncharted game.
New Resident Evil game.
UFC Undisputed 3 will be the best-reviewed new release of the month.

Gaming audiences will collectively shrug their shoulders at all of this and scoop up more Call of Duty and Just Dance. Nothing worth buying until Mass Effect hits in March. Gotta shoot things. Can't get enough shooting. Gotta keep playing Call of Duty until we can shoot more stuff in Mass Effect world. Everyone else just keeps buying dance games and playing on their smartphones.

What the world needs is a dancing game where you shoot stuff? Why hasn't this combination happened yet? I want to pull off dance moves that charge up my guns so I can simultaneously blast zombies while doing the splits. When do I get to play this game? Is it on my iPhone?

So you list people will ignore Uncharted and Resident Evil... because they like to shoot stuff.. but both of those games...
 
Has this been posted?

Financial Times
Call of Duty takes big January hit

For anyone seeking holes in Activision’s seemingly bulletproof Call of Duty franchise, there was a chink in the armour exposed in NPD US January sales figures released late on Thursday.

Sales fell nearly 50 per cent year-on-year for the world’s best-selling video game in 2011 – that’s comparing the performance of the latest in the franchise – Modern Warfare 3 – with its predecessor, Black Ops.

The numbers are surprising because MW3 eclipsed Black Ops sales on its initial release.

Activision reported $775m in global sales of the game in its first five days of availability in November – exceeding the record of $650m set a year before by Black Ops and $550m two years ago for Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2.

But while console sales for MW2 were 658,000 units in January 2010 and Black Ops sold 750,000 units a year ago, MW3 sold only 386,000 units in the US last month.

“As a result, MW3 sales to date are now essentially flat versus Black Ops last year,” said Cowen and Company analysts in a note.


“We now expect MW3 to sell through slightly fewer units than Black Ops across its lifetime.”

More on the site.
 

Petrae

Member
What's more interesting to me about that FT article is the Activision downgrade by Mcquarie Securities and its note about "dark clouds and negative perceptions" hanging over the industry. I think that there's some fear spreading that video gaming's biggest moneymaking days are behind it. If investors start pulling out, I'll be curious to see how that affects the industry in general.
 
What's more interesting to me about that FT article is the Activision downgrade by Mcquarie Securities and its note about "dark clouds and negative perceptions" hanging over the industry. I think that there's some fear spreading that video gaming's biggest moneymaking days are behind it. If investors start pulling out, I'll be curious to see how that affects the industry in general.

Yeah, the only question to me seems whether this is typical generational cycling or something more profound. I'm personally pretty sure it's the former though.

But I'm sure there's some who think smartphones and tablets are now destroying the actual console market and not just handhelds.
 
What's more interesting to me about that FT article is the Activision downgrade by Mcquarie Securities and its note about "dark clouds and negative perceptions" hanging over the industry. I think that there's some fear spreading that video gaming's biggest moneymaking days are behind it. If investors start pulling out, I'll be curious to see how that affects the industry in general.

Won't affect the industry at all aside from Kotick being able to afford one less Bentley next year.
 

Massa

Member
What's more interesting to me about that FT article is the Activision downgrade by Mcquarie Securities and its note about "dark clouds and negative perceptions" hanging over the industry. I think that there's some fear spreading that video gaming's biggest moneymaking days are behind it. If investors start pulling out, I'll be curious to see how that affects the industry in general.

If that happens I hope Notch funds Mirror's Edge 2.
 

Petrae

Member
The Battlefield effect? It also can't help that there are now 4 CoD games in the XBL top 20 - people who invested hundreds of hours and dollars into MW2 and Black Ops don't feel the need to upgrade.

I'd also throw out there the idea that limiting DLC behind a premium Elite subscription also hurts residual sales potential. In years past, arrival of new map packs drove mild/moderate spikes of sales around the time of DLC release. Now that it's $50 additional to access these, rather than $15, the price of entry may seem a bit more prohibitive, leading consumers to stay with what they already have.

Just a theory.
 
I'd also throw out there the idea that limiting DLC behind a premium Elite subscription also hurts residual sales potential. In years past, arrival of new map packs drove mild/moderate spikes of sales around the time of DLC release. Now that it's $50 additional to access these, rather than $15, the price of entry may seem a bit more prohibitive, leading consumers to stay with what they already have.

Just a theory.
Wait, you can't buy the map packs individually anymore?
 
I'd also throw out there the idea that limiting DLC behind a premium Elite subscription also hurts residual sales potential. In years past, arrival of new map packs drove mild/moderate spikes of sales around the time of DLC release. Now that it's $50 additional to access these, rather than $15, the price of entry may seem a bit more prohibitive, leading consumers to stay with what they already have.

Just a theory.

Will be pretty easy to test that theory when the first non Elite DLC collection comes out for sale. I think you might be right and the game could spike up again since renewed marketing will probably also come with it.
 
Financial Times said:
Sales fell nearly 50 per cent year-on-year for the world’s best-selling video game in 2011 – that’s comparing the performance of the latest in the franchise – Modern Warfare 3 – with its predecessor, Black Ops.

The numbers are surprising because MW3 eclipsed Black Ops sales on its initial release.
These people aren't Sales-Age material. It's common for a franchise to get more frontloaded as it's more established, leaving fewer people to buy it later.
 
These people aren't Sales-Age material. It's common for a franchise to get more frontloaded as it's more established, leaving fewer people to buy it later.
Both MW2 and Black Ops had higher launch sales and higher ltd sales than their predecessors. Looking at the UK and some Nordic weekly sales, it's clear that BF3 has taken some of the wind out of MW3's sales ww.
 

Somnid

Member
These people aren't Sales-Age material. It's common for a franchise to get more frontloaded as it's more established, leaving fewer people to buy it later.

Yeah but in terms of growth it means the fanbase has settled and is not growing which indicates we might be seeing the peak of CoD.
 

Petrae

Member
Well, in that case that means Elite members get the maps earlier, not that DLC is for Elite members only.


That's right. However, a 6-8 week delay for those not willing to pay the $50 entry fee is potentially one of the factors that's kept post-holiday sales down. I see why ATVI did it this way, but it's arguably come with a cost of fewer residual sales.
 

Petrae

Member
These people aren't Sales-Age material. It's common for a franchise to get more frontloaded as it's more established, leaving fewer people to buy it later.

Sales deceleration is much more pronounced with MW3, versus Black Ops or MW2. Also interesting is that both Just Dance 3 (Wii) and Skyrim (360) outpaced MW3 on the individual SKU chart for January.
 
Sales deceleration is much more pronounced with MW3, versus Black Ops or MW2. Also interesting is that both Just Dance 3 (Wii) and Skyrim (360) outpaced MW3 on the individual SKU chart for January.
With the number of leaks you've already posted, you might as well post the real top 10 and the hw numbers.
 
Sales deceleration is much more pronounced with MW3, versus Black Ops or MW2. Also interesting is that both Just Dance 3 (Wii) and Skyrim (360) outpaced MW3 on the individual SKU chart for January.

Skyrim is the biggest surprise, in terms of success, to me. It seems to be out doing anyone's wildest guess.

Would you be able to drop a hint about LTD split ratio for 360/ps3?
 

Kazerei

Banned
Wow, January was a bad month for the industry. Maybe because we're coming off such a strong holiday season. Personally I didn't buy anything in January because I'm still working through backlogged games I bought last year.
 

Zzoram

Member
Skyrim is the biggest surprise, in terms of success, to me. It seems to be out doing anyone's wildest guess.

Would you be able to drop a hint about LTD split ratio for 360/ps3?

I think Skyrim was helped a lot because Oblivion was 5+ years ago. People were ready for another Elder Scrolls.
 
I think Skyrim was helped a lot because Oblivion was 5+ years ago. People were ready for another Elder Scrolls.

Yes but if I recall, Skyrim has outsold Oblivion handidly. It would seem that RPG, well executed and marketed, have a good oppotunity to succed. Mass Effect is another example.
 
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