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[The Technomancer]

There's not much left to choke, though.

What retail games are exclusive on 360? Reach, Fable, Kinect titles and something else?
What about PS3 and Wii? I honestly don't know what the current release schedule is like (so many titles from E3 are 2011) and I'm trying to do some predictions. This isn't supposed to be list wars.


I think a lot depends on post release word of mouth, 360's sales spike in Sepetember won't be as noticable as it was in 2007.

The Wii is going to have some heavy hitters come holiday: Epic Mickey, Donkey Kong, and Kirby are all confirmed (and maybe Just Dance 2 depending on Kinect)

Metroid and NBA Jam are really the only thing in the fall though, and we all know how well those will do.

On the DS front doesn't really look like any system sellers. Layton will do great, but to the same audience that bought the first two.

 

[WillyFive]

i believe the meme has changed circa 2007

Is that why the highest rated game of the generation is almost tied with #1 in the chart?

 

[REMEMBER CITADEL]

Reach will definitely sell systems, no doubt about it. So will GT5, despite the fact that GT: HD, three revisions of Prologue and that Academy thingy are already out there.

For what it's worth, I'm a big Halo fan and I still don't have a 360.

 

[Spiegel]

Companies shouldn't bother to release psp games outside of Japan. I don't think I can take seeing Birth By Sleep bombing this bad in two months.

This puts things into a terrifying perspective. Goddamn, the PSP market really is worse than I thought.

Now I'm not sure if the number is reliable. I found it doing a google search that goes to a post in the ign forums that list games >100k in December 06.

But yes, the PSP market really is worse than I thought too. I thought big franchises were safe to do okay numbers at least.

Spoiler

PSPGo killed the hardware
Marcus killed the software

Everything was better when Sony was doing nothing :lol

 

[MiamiWesker]

No MGS in the top 20... wow... You know what to do Konami.

 

[Ridley327]

Companies shouldn't bother to release psp games outside of Japan. I don't think I can take seeing Birth By Sleep bombing this bad in two months.



Now I'm not sure if the number is reliable. I found it doing a google search that goes to a post in the ign forums that list games >100k in December 06.

That's the same era from when NPD numbers were a lot more readily available, so I wouldn't be quick to doubt it.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

There's not much left to choke, though.

Very true, but for whatever reason, Konami chose to release Peace Walker on the PSP. Releasing a PS3 version would kill any and all sales the PSP got, no matter how paltry.

 

[Concept17]

May have been mentioned, but I take it PSN sales of MGS aren't included here?

 

[farnham]

The Wii is going to have some heavy hitters come holiday: Epic Mickey, Donkey Kong, and Kirby are all confirmed (and maybe Just Dance 2 depending on Kinect)

Metroid and NBA Jam are really the only thing in the fall though, and we all know how well those will do.

On the DS front doesn't really look like any system sellers. Layton will do great, but to the same audience that bought the first two.

sonic colors is this fall too isnt it ? sonic traditionally does solid numbers i believe

 

[Opiate]

It would be very surprising if Halo Reach did not shift some systems. It would be equally surprising if it moved as many as Halo 3.

This "the gap is widening further between AAA and A/B/C games" discussion is the most interesting to me: too bad we don't have enough data. The combination of Pachter's recent comments (different thread on the main page) and NPD's explicit statement that, yes, the bigger games are selling better while the smaller ones are selling worse, is good enough proof for me.

I want to see if this continues, and then I want to discuss what it means going forward.

As a side note, I think online subscriptions will accelerate the widening trend. To play Call of Duty subscriber edition. I have to 1) Pay my carrier for high speed internet, 2) Pay Miocrosoft for XBL, and 3) Pay Activision for Call of Duty. Three separate subscriptions going to three separate companies with three separate billing systems.

I think that set up is already inconvenient enough (and is likely the precise reason Kotick seems so trepid about establishing a subscription service on Xbox in particular), but imagine if you had the audacity to want to play two or more games in a single month: you're suddenly paying 4 or even 5 monthly subscriptions to different companies every month, just to play your 2 or 3 games.

There has to be a breaking point in there somewhere, and I think many people would find "their" game and stick to it. The result, again, would be an even wider disparity between the winners and losers, as most people won't want to pay a subscription to a small game their friends aren't playing.

 

[Ridley327]

May have been mentioned, but I take it PSN sales of MGS aren't included here?

Sony doesn't release sales figures for PSP games on PSN, so that's a negative. From what it sounds like, though, the game hasn't been burning up any of the charts on the Playstation Store, so I doubt it would have helped things in a significant way.

 

[Plinko]

Metroid and NBA Jam are really the only thing in the fall though, and we all know how well those will do.

I honestly think NBA Jam will do much better than people think.

 

[JesseZao]

People really expected MGSW to do well?

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

It would be very surprising if Halo Reach did not shift some systems. It would be equally surprising if it moved as many as Halo 3.

This "the gap is widening further between AAA and A/B/C games" discussion is the most interesting to me: too bad we don't have enough data. The combination of Pachter's recent comments (different thread on the main page) and NPD's explicit statement that, yes, the bigger games are selling better while the smaller ones are selling worse, is good enough proof for me.

I want to see if this continues, and then I want to discuss what it means going forward.

As a side note, I think online subscriptions will accelerate the widening trend. To play Call of Duty subscriber edition. I have to 1) Pay my carrier for high speed internet, 2) Pay Miocrosoft for XBL, and 3) Pay Activision for Call of Duty. Three separate subscriptions going to three separate companies with three separate billing systems.

I think that set up is already inconvenient enough (and is likely the precise reason Kotick seems so trepid about establishing a subscription service on Xbox in particular), but imagine if you had the audacity to want to play two or more games in a single month: you're suddenly paying 4 or even 5 monthly subscriptions to different companies every month, just to play your 2 or 3 games.

There has to be a breaking point in there somewhere, and I think many people would find "their" game and stick to it. The result, again, would be an even wider disparity between the winners and losers, as most people won't want to pay a subscription to a small game their friends aren't playing.

I think the bigger problem is that the Call of Duty series is well into the maturity phase of its product cycle, and charging monthly fees would be a great way to send the franchise into decline, particularly with stong competitors like Halo, BF:BC, and EA's Modern Warfare game.

Gamers have proved that they'll pay for anything, if they have no choice.

 

[Opiate]

As another note, MGSW is a testament to Sony's third party relations.

I think most of us knew this would dramatically underperform -- albeit perhaps we weren't expecting it to unperform this badly. How Sony convinced Konami to put this game on their handheld is unknown to me: what I can say is that Sony somehow convinced Koanmi to make a game in their flagship franchise that almost all of us knew would underperform the second we heard about it.

It may seem backhanded, but I'm giving Sony a complement here. They really know how to convince publishers that their systems are a good place for their games, even in cases where it seems blindingly obvious that they are not good places at all.

 

[Ridley327]

Well, cocaine is a helluva drug.

 

[jetjevons]

8 of the top 20 are Wii games, yet "Wii owners don't buy games."

I think the point is "Wii owners buy the same games each month"

 

[Black Rainbow]

As another note, MGSW is a testament to Sony's third party relations.

I think most of us knew this would dramatically underperform -- albeit perhaps we weren't expecting it to unperform this badly. How Sony convinced Konami to put this game on their handheld is unknown to me: what I can say is that Sony somehow convinced Koanmi to make a game in their flagship franchise that almost all of us knew would underperform the second we heard about it.

It may seem backhanded, but I'm giving Sony a complement here. They really know how to convince publishers that their systems are a good place for their games.

They weren't expecting this and if you asked the higher ups if they would do it again they would probably say no.

Judging from the reactions in this thread, no one expected the outcome to be this bad.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

It may seem backhanded, but I'm giving Sony a complement here. They really know how to convince publishers that their systems are a good place for their games.

Benjamins go a long way. Just sayin.

 

[Owzers]

As another note, MGSW is a testament to Sony's third party relations.

I think most of us knew this would dramatically underperform -- albeit perhaps we weren't expecting it to unperform this badly. How Sony convinced Konami to put this game on their handheld is unknown to me: what I can say is that Sony somehow convinced Koanmi to make a game in their flagship franchise that almost all of us knew would underperform the second we heard about it.

It may seem backhanded, but I'm giving Sony a complement here. They really know how to convince publishers that their systems are a good place for their games, even in cases where it seems blindingly obvious that they are not good places at all.

At the same time publishers are scrambling, entirely confused as to why they are in financial trouble. It's just so stupid it's funny. Maybe Konami didn't feel like making money this time?

I also want to see what happens with Capcom when/if Dead Rising 2 bombs just as bad as Lost Planet 2 did. It's equally funny how Lost Planet and Dead Rising were listed as Capcom's biggest successes on Xbox 360, along with some of best selling early titles for the platform, only to have their sequels laughed at.

 

[Cornbread78]

*Reads the thread and see how the games I'm interested that are uncharted sold*

I hate this industry sometimes.

Seriously, is there a top 50 list available, or a top 20 per system list available?

 

[Opiate]

They weren't expecting this and if you asked the higher ups if they would do it again they would probably say no.

But why were they not expecting this? Almost all of us saw this coming to some degree or another. Even a year ago, even when it was announced, any reasonable GAF sales ager would predict this would significantly underperform for a main entry in Konami's flagship series.

There was ample evidence by early 09 that the PSP was a weak platform for software, particularly in the west, where MGS does a large portion of its business. Not surprisingly, the PSP's situation has continued to deteriorate, as 6 year old systems don't tend to suddenly spring back to life in the face of overwhelming competition.

How did Sony convince Konami to overlook this clear and unambiguous data?

 

[Ridley327]

At the same time publishers are scrambling, entirely confused as to why they are in financial trouble. It's just so stupid it's funny. Maybe Konami didn't feel like making money this time?

They projected the game's sales at 3 million WW this year. It is going to take a miracle to get to half of that. It's like they've taken crazy pills.

How did Sony convince Konami to overlook this clear and unambiguous data?

Well, cocaine is a helluva drug.

 

[[Nintex]]

Look at Konami's E3 press conference, do you really think it's hard to convince them to do anything. Who even runs Konami at this point? :lol

 

[Cornbread78]

Top 20 is up!

Someone might want to quote for the next page or something...

BAnned site in the office, can anyone please post the list?

 

[JaxJag]

I wonder if poor software sales are due to there just being so many games...

This first half of the year has been crazy, and I honestly can't keep up.

I have such a backlog I just completely skipped on releases like Transformers, Singularity, Sin & Punishment, Deathsmiles, Split/Second, Heavy Rain, FFXIII, etc, etc.

So unless I want to pay full price for all these games and let them sit on the shelf for months, I just can't buy all the games i'm interested in.

It's an issue sort of exclusive with games IMO. With movies, not only are they much cheaper, but can be consumed in an hour and half to two hours.

A video game usually takes at least 8 hours to finish, usually more.

Maybe video game developers need to think about releasing smaller games at retail for less money... something needs to change.

 

[Stumpokapow]

In January 2008 a developer posted accurate, independently verified NPD numbers to Cheap Ass Gamer.

(As of January 2008, LTDs)
Metal Gear Solid Portable Ops - 241,000
Metal Gear Solid Portable Ops Plus - 68,000

I have no private sources for NPD data.

BAnned site in the office, can anyone please post the list?

1-10 are in the OP

11. Pokemon SoulSilver
12. Transformers WFC 360 (132k)
13. NSMB DS
14. CoD MW2 360
15. FIFA World Cup 360
16. FIFA World Cup PS3
17. Mario Kart Wii
18. Pokemon HeartGold
19. Toy Story 3 Wii
20. Wii Sports Resort (<100k)

 

[donny2112]

imagine if you had the audacity to want to play two or more games in a single month: you're suddenly paying 4 or even 5 monthly subscriptions to different companies every month, just to play your 2 or 3 games.

There has to be a breaking point in there somewhere, and I think many people would find "their" game and stick to it.

If the CoD subscription covered all Activision games (and why not? It's not like any others would have as large a pull.), then it might be a case of finding "their" company. That would be a huge shift in customer mindset, though. They'd actually be paying attention to the publisher on the box.

Spoiler

Maybe if Sin & Punishment 2 had said "From the publishers of New Super Mario Bros." with a picture of Mario on the box ... :lol

I think the point is "Wii owners buy the same games each month"

Which is, of course, impossible. Wii owners don't buy five copies of Mario Kart. What we're seeing is mostly new customers buying the "staple" games for the system each month. A large part of that is possibly due to the huge lack of release of compelling content on a regular monthly basis from third-parties/Nintendo. It also bespeaks greatly to the desperate need for a Player's Choice line to get those new buyers picking up older classics, too.

 

[Vinci]

I wonder if poor software sales are due to there just being so many games...

This first half of the year has been crazy, and I honestly can't keep up.

I have such a backlog I just completely skipped on releases like Transformers, Singularity, Sin & Punishment, Deathsmiles, Split/Second, Heavy Rain, FFXIII, etc, etc.

So unless I want to pay full price for all these games and let them sit on the shelf for months, I just can't buy all the games i'm interested in.

It's an issue sort of exclusive with games IMO. With movies, not only are they much cheaper, but can be consumed in an hour and half to two hours.

A video game usually takes at least 8 hours to finish, usually more.

Maybe video game developers need to think about releasing smaller games at retail for less money... something needs to change.

We should start a blog.

 

[king zell]

wow so MGSPW didnt make it in the top 20? this cant be good

 

[MechaX]

Companies shouldn't bother to release psp games outside of Japan. I don't think I can take seeing Birth By Sleep bombing this bad in two months.

While I doubt it will, if Birth by Sleep manages to bomb, the PSP NA Market will create a new definition and magnitude for the term "hopeless".

 

[Stumpokapow]

Companies shouldn't bother to release psp games outside of Japan. I don't think I can take seeing Birth By Sleep bombing this bad in two months.

The good news is that the bomba heartbreak is almost over because there are very few major high profile PSP titles left to bomb!

 

[MattyGrovesOrMe]

How Sony convinced Konami to put this game on their handheld is unknown to me...

How did Sony convince Konami to overlook this clear and unambiguous data?

Do we know that Sony was the catalyst behind Konami's decision to put PW on the PSP?

 

[SlipperySlope]

Pathetic PW numbers. So, so sad... such a fantastic game.

What's PW?

Edit - Ooooh. Peace Walker. I hate acronyms. I kept thinking Phoenix Wright, and didn't think a phoenix wright game released that month.

 

[Chris1964]

But why were they not expecting this? Almost all of us saw this coming to some degree or another. Even a year ago, even when it was announced, any reasonable GAF sales ager would predict this would significantly underperform for a main entry in Konami's flagship series.

There was ample evidence by early 09 that the PSP was a weak platform for software, particularly in the west, where MGS does a large portion of its business. Not surprisingly, the PSP's situation has continued to deteriorate, as 6 year old systems don't tend to suddenly spring back to life in the face of overwhelming competition.

How did Sony convince Konami to overlook this clear and unambiguous data?

Did Konami see it though?

Everyone (almost) expected PW to bomb very hard outside Japan but Konami expected 3 million sales worldwide. Even if it was wishful thinking you don't make statements like these to your shareholders.

 

[Gravijah]

What's PW?

Metal Gear Solid: Peace Walker.

 

[Stumpokapow]

What's PW?

metal gear solid peacewalker

 

[donny2112]

How did Sony convince Konami to overlook this clear and unambiguous data?

Probably because Sony had a huge push with third-parties planned in 2009 (see E3 2009) and expected the PSPgo to boost sales, as well. That just didn't happen, though. The real question is why these companies aren't trying (and haven't been for a few years now) to salvage something by porting these games to the Wii. Maybe Sony wrote something into their contracts that there couldn't be a Wii port? Poisoning the water for Wii third-party support? I honestly don't know why they haven't been trying for years with PSP-to-Wii ports in the West.

 

[Plinko]

Which is, of course, impossible. Wii owners don't buy five copies of Mario Kart. What we're seeing is mostly new customers buying the "staple" games for the system each month. A large part of that is possibly due to the huge lack of release of compelling content on a regular monthly basis from third-parties/Nintendo. It also bespeaks greatly to the desperate need for a Player's Choice line to get those new buyers picking up older classics, too.

Well said.

 

[jetjevons]

What's PW?

Edit - Ooooh. Peace Walker. I hate acronyms. I kept thinking Phoenix Wright, and didn't think a phoenix wright game released that month.

Metal Gear Solid 5.

 

[Gravijah]

What's PW?

Edit - Ooooh. Peace Walker. I hate acronyms. I kept thinking Phoenix Wright, and didn't think a phoenix wright game released that month.

Hahaha. :lol I mentioned I was playing PW to a buddy of mine and he was like "Wow, you finally picked the Phoenix Wright games back up?"

 

[Effect]

Probably because Sony had a huge push with third-parties planned in 2009 (see E3 2009) and expected the PSPgo to boost sales, as well. That just didn't happen, though. The real question is why these companies aren't trying (and haven't been for a few years now) to salvage something by porting these games to the Wii. Maybe Sony wrote something into their contracts that there couldn't be a Wii port? Poisoning the water for Wii third-party support? I honestly don't know why they haven't been trying for years with PSP-to-Wii ports in the West.

That's been being asked for some time now. That the PSP gets versions of games yet the Wii goes without (while all the other systems and the DS gets something) has been beyond annoying for a long time. I've stopped carrying at this point though. If the rare interesting 3rd party game comes out I'll give it attention and maybe buy it. Other then that Nintendo published games have kept me happy on the Wii.

 

[Spiegel]

The good news is that the bomba heartbreak is almost over because there are very few major high profile PSP titles left to bomb!

That's true, there's only KH, GOW and PE3 left. I think I can handle it.

Because I don't think PSP will exist in any form in NA/EU when S-E decides to release Agito XIII

 

[H_Prestige]

Bullshit. You know good and well the game releasing on PS3 would choke the life out of the PSP sales.

Let it. If psp version tanks (like it already hasn't), then that just means the market wanted a home console version instead. Why not give the market what it wants?

 

[Stumpokapow]

That's true, there's only KH, GOW and PE3 left. I think I can handle it.

Because I don't think PSP will exist in any form in NA/EU when S-E decides to release Agito XIII

Don't worry, by the time Agito is done it'll be 3DS exclusive and you'll be this forum's #1 Nintendo fan. It's all good.

 

[Gravijah]

That's true, there's only KH, GOW and PE3 left. I think I can handle it.

Because I don't think PSP will exist in any form in NA/EU when S-E decides to release Agito XIII

Agito XIII will allow the PSP to go out with one last "haha!"

 

[KJ_Wii]

Technically you can avert some of this pressure by giving out a dividend, but I highly doubt Nintendo is going to do that.

Edit:

Apparently Nintendo does have a dividend.

I could be wrong, but I believe Nintendo gives out a dividend that's a whopping 20% of profits, much higher than the norm (average is something like 2%). So that encourages holding onto the stock for a long period of time.

Of course they also have a lot of odd practices that discourage buying in the first place, like minimum purchases, keeping a high share price without any stock splits, not doing any buybacks with their massive profits, etc.

I was told that it was greenlit because of American VC sales. I always thought that sounded kind of suspect but I'm not gonna hem and haw about Nintendo greenlighting great games based on how old ones sold (even if I don't believe them).

I think that was a rumor. I can't give exact figures but it's one of the few (<20%) VC games with Nintendo Channel usage data in the US and it has a really low average play time so there is a significant portion of users playing the game compared to most VC titles (which isn't necessarily saying much considering most of the crap on there). But the pricing/value structure is so different for VC I wouldn't be using that as a primary decision factor in anything, at best would just use it as a reason to conduct further market research on a particular title.

Other interesting note - once Kirby and Donkey Kong are out this year, every Nintendo-made VC game that's been played enough to have usage data visible in the Nintendo Channel will have a Wii version except for: Star Fox 64 (remake on 3DS), Kid Icarus (new game on 3DS), Wave Race 64 (mini-game in Wii Sports Resort), F-Zero X (unknown, would be good for 3DS though, so keep an eye out for it), and StarTropics D). So basically only two missing.

Unsurprisingly, third parties aren't nearly as consistent - the following VC titles have been bought/played enough to have Nintendo Channel data without (to my knowledge) a real sequel/franchise entry on Wii - ActRaiser, Breath of Fire II, Castlevania/Castlevania II/Super Castlevania (unless you count Judgment...), Columns, Contra III/Super C (though Contra 4 was on DS), Golden Axe (made for 360/PS3 instead, good choice), Gunstar Heroes, Military Madness, Ninja Gaiden (again, there is a DS entry), Shining Force, Street Fighter II (multiple versions), Streets of Rage 1/2/3, Super Ghouls 'n' Ghosts, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, Toe Jam & Earl. And that doesn't even include any popular VC titles released since ~May 2008, since Nintendo stopped adding them to the Nintendo Channel.

 

[MechaX]

Heh, one GameFAQs member's theory on Peace Walker sales.

Peace Walker sales were split 3 ways between the regular version, the Collector's Edition and the Big Boss Bundle, if you combine them Peace Walker would probably be in the top 5

I'm pretty curious actually on how NPD handles different skus, in all seriousness.

 

[Ridley327]

I have supreme doubts about The 3rd Birthday being successful anywhere. I simply can't imagine how Squenix will be able to get the word across that it's Parasite Eve 3 when they can't call it Parasite Eve 3. Even if they could call it that, I think it's been way too long since PE2 for anyone to care about the franchise that isn't already a fan.

 

[Loudninja]

Heh, one GameFAQs member's theory on Peace Walker sales.



I'm pretty curious actually on how NPD handles different skus, in all seriousness.

I doubt it NPD does include the collectors edition .