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NPD Sales Results for November 2015 [Up3: Combined Hardware For PS4 + XB1 + Wii U]

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perfectchaos007

Member
So the 3DS only sold ~350K? That is really...really bad for Nintendo. I saw 3DS deals all over the place for black friday and for every 1 3DS that was sold, 4 PS4's were sold. Thats a terrible ratio for a handheld. Or maybe dedicated handhelds are indeed dead and there's nothing Nintendo can do about it. I didn't realize it was this bad
 
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Shin-chan

Member
I agree that they will be satisfied with 250-300K sales, but I also think the level of marketing it gets will give us a decent indication of their hopes/expectations. If it gets a huge push (for April) they would not be satisfied with that. Otherwise they would. Their approach will be interesting because it is very rare for Microsoft to have a tent pole release around Q1/Q2.

I think it will do better than AW because it has a generally more mainstream style and appeal (Sci Fi blockbuster vs low key thriller), but worse than TR 2013 due to less brand awareness and install base, and the fact that a lot of story focused TPS fans are likely with Playstation at that stage due to TLoU Remaster (which did particularly well for a remaster) and U4.
 
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RibMan

Member
Shin-chan said:
Do people think the response of the Xbox user base will be more or less the same for Tomb Raider and Quantum Break? I mean, they're very comparable on paper in that they're narrative driven TPS games with no multiplayer.

I agree that bundling will help its long term prospects but I honestly can't see the individual sales being much better than TR (proportionate to the sales volume in the months each launches). Unless the specific differences (male/female MC, Adventure/Sci Fi genre etc) will make it more appealing to Xbox MAUs.

Furthermore, do people think that this game will be given the go ahead for a PC port after launch as part of MS unification process/lip service? I think potentially disappointing sales as well as Remedys relatively strong PC following make it a decent candidate.
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In North America, Quantum Break should do better than Rise of the Tomb Raider for the sheer fact that it's not launching against a gigantic franchise. Of course, if an exec at Xbox gets the brilliant idea of launching it earlier to compete with UC4 then they're going to have a bad time.

There's enough interest in the game (thanks to the TV show premise) that even if the reviews are poor (Remedy can make great games so this is unlikely) the game will still find an audience bigger than RotTR. How much bigger? I think 200k more than TR is easily achievable, so a minimum of 400k. A lack of competitive multiplayer will limit the game's appeal, but I don't think the inclusion of multiplayer would automatically make it attract the Gears crowd.

Bundling the game makes a lot of sense. Most Microsoft IP's (Minecraft being the exception) will need bundling this gen to avoid underwhelming results at retail. If you're Microsoft and you want QB to be a franchise? Bundle it. Don't waste time and money on a custom console -- just pack a digital download code for the game in a box, slap a Quantum Break image on the front of the box, and ship that thing to retail.

Although Remedy does have ties to the PC market, I don't think their following on PC makes QB a candidate for a PC port. Let's be honest: the only way a PC port will exist is if Remedy successfully negotiated for a PC version in their deal with Microsoft. Microsoft's track record on what they say they're going to do on PC vs what they actually do on PC is abysmal, so it would take really really disappointing sales for Xbox to say "let's make a PC port". It's been mentioned before, but the Xbox guys view the PC platform as competition to their business. They will only support the PC when a) they are contractually obligated to do so and b) they believe they can 'translate' a PC gamer into a Xbox gamer.

Note: My sales predictions are for NA. I don't think QB will outdo RotTR in EU, JP, and other territories. I think it takes a special kind of IP to break-through globally, and to be frank, I haven't seen anything in QB (yet) that has made me go "this could crush it in Spain/Russia/Japan/Peru/Australia etc."
 
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Steverulez

Member
RibMan said:
In North America, Quantum Break should do better than Rise of the Tomb Raider for the sheer fact that it's not launching against a gigantic franchise. Of course, if an exec at Xbox gets the brilliant idea of launching it earlier to compete with UC4 then they're going to have a bad time.

There's enough interest in the game (thanks to the TV show premise) that even if the reviews are poor (Remedy can make great games so this is unlikely) the game will still find an audience bigger than RotTR. How much bigger? I think 200k more than TR is easily achievable, so a minimum of 400k. A lack of competitive multiplayer will limit the game's appeal, but I don't think the inclusion of multiplayer would automatically make it attract the Gears crowd.

Bundling the game makes a lot of sense. Most Microsoft IP's (Minecraft being the exception) will need bundling this gen to avoid underwhelming results at retail. If you're Microsoft and you want QB to be a franchise? Bundle it. Don't waste time and money on a custom console -- just pack a digital download code for the game in a box, slap a Quantum Break image on the front of the box, and ship that thing to retail.

Although Remedy does have ties to the PC market, I don't think their following on PC makes QB a candidate for a PC port. Let's be honest: the only way a PC port will exist is if Remedy successfully negotiated for a PC version in their deal with Microsoft. Microsoft's track record on what they say they're going to do on PC vs what they actually do on PC is abysmal, so it would take really really disappointing sales for Xbox to say "let's make a PC port". It's been mentioned before, but the Xbox guys view the PC platform as competition to their business. They will only support the PC when a) they are contractually obligated to do so and b) they believe they can 'translate' a PC gamer into a Xbox gamer.

Note: My sales predictions are for NA. I don't think QB will outdo RotTR in EU, JP, and other territories. I think it takes a special kind of IP to break-through globally, and to be frank, I haven't seen anything in QB (yet) that has made me go "this could crush it in Spain/Russia/Japan/Peru/Australia etc."
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MS are clearly working on their PC push and the reasons given previously for their new stuff not launching day 1 on PC I think later ports are all but guaranteed but they aren't going to talk about/work on them until after after the games are out on what they've already committed to.

By that point though Remedy and their other new IPs could have sequels 6-12 months in development so if they intend to continue them as franchises they won't wait around to see what PC does. I'd have to know what RotTR did worldwide to say what it might do there. Forza appeared to do quite well in some European countries despite Xbox One's limited install base so... hopefully QB can do alright
 
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PanicFreak

Member
MisterR said:
There is no way in hell Quantum Break sells 400 k first month NPD. 200k would be a really good result for them.
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Sure there is. If QB gets a MC of 95, it will probably break 400k.

Edit: FWIW, I think that QB will probably end up with a Metacritic score in the 80s. Probably in the mid 80s. If you held a gun to my head, I would say 84.
 
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jjonez18

Member
The Tomb Raider faithful was not on Xbox One. Tough sell to go to your weakest and smallest audience, then ask them to choose ROTR over Halo, CoD, Fallout, and BattleFront.

Quantum Break will do fine. It has none of this going against it.
 
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Steverulez

Member
PanicFreak said:
Sure there is. If QB gets a MC of 95, it will probably break 400k.
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Microsoft haven't had a first-party exclusive/published title with a metacritic of 90 or over since 2011 (they had a couple of indie XBLA games they published, though) with Gears of War 3 and Forza Motorsport 4, I won't be holding my breath for QB getting 90+. High 80s would be very nice for it, will probably get mid-low 80s if its good
 
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tattooed_dwarf

Member
Curufinwe said:
It would be a miracle.
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Yep, it isn't set on stone to get high reviews like UC4. I hope it gets good or even remarkable review scores and actually is good game. It sounds at least that gameplay has challenge, you have to learn what powers use and when, not going to be god mode like that Gamescom gameplay. And I'm super interested on tv show aspect, since that part of media has gone forward so much and tying it to game seems fascinating.
 
peter42O

peter42O

Member
As someone who purchased an Xbox One six weeks ago for Rise of the Tomb Raider and Quantum Break, im happy that there's no multi-player online crap in either game. I'm purely a single player gamer and both of these games are meant to be single player focused. Gamers aren't going to buy either game for their multi-player aspect when there are far more games that do it better.

Those who bought ROTTR and those who will buy QB are doing so because they're single player gamers who want a good or better single player experience and are into third person action/adventure/shooters.

ROTTR sold badly because of it's release date and timed exclusive crap which is sad because the game itself is excellent and worth buying and playing if you own an Xbox One. ROTTR itself made the Xbox One purchase worth it for me so if QB is half as good, I'll be satisfied. Of course, im hoping that QB turns out to be an excellent game as im very much looking forward to playing it.

I think that Quantum Break has an excellent chance to hit 500K in April as there's no major titles being released in that month and it's being released early in the month. Plus, Xbox One owners who are like me and wanting Microsoft to spread out their exclusives like Sony does are more likely to buy it. Plus, those who own both PS4 and Xbox One may want another third person shooter to play after Uncharted 4 and while they're different games, both are third person shooters at it's core so that could help get a few extra sales as well.

And of course, it's Remedy who's developing the game. Max Payne 1 and 2 were great games so im expecting QB to be a great game in it's own way as well.
 
Chobel

Chobel

Member
Steverulez said:
So is that why MS and Sony are starting to do tons of bundles at the base price? The idea for the first one is to build yourself a solid base to make a franchise from, bundling will do that better than anything else. Obviously you expect/hope people will buy it on its own and be good, but bundles are about getting new people to buy your game with a console, not focused solely on getting the people that already own your platform to buy another one.
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They're doing that mainly because they wanna sell consoles, not because they're building some fanbase for a game, and in this case bundling The Division makes more sense.

Plus most publishers want their new IP to be successful from the first time, and by successful I mean profitable. It's after the new IP sales disappoint they start worrying about the fanbase.

Steverulez said:
I wouldn't have said MP was a huge reason why many people buy Uncharted. Also you will notice the first one didn't have it...

And Nintendo platforms don't have anywhere near the level of competition in the shooter multiplayer market that Sony and Microsoft platforms do.
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Well the first Uncharted didn't "light the sales charts on fire", and while people don't buy Uncharted games for their MP, it's the MP that makes UC games looks like a great package.

--------------------------

No bets, but I think QB will do +400K in its first month.
 
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Steverulez

Member
Chobel said:
They're doing that mainly because they wanna sell consoles, not because they're building some fanbase for a game, and in this case bundling The Division makes more sense.

Plus most publishers want their new IP to be successful from the first time, and by successful I mean profitable. It's after the new IP sales disappoint they start worrying about the fanbase.
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They bundle games because they want to help build a fanbase for them as well, theres multiple ways of looking at why they do it. Its an easy way to get the game to more people, its not like MS have much else to bundle at that time. Why can't they do Quantum Break and The Division bundles? They did TW3, Evolve, MCC at various points last year for releases, I doubt they will stick to just one game.

They are unlikely to keep bundling The Division all year round though i'd say, they'll want a first party game to pack-in, they own Quantum Break which is the first AAA new IP they've shipped this gen that they do own, I think it makes a lot of sense to try and build that up. TD will probably sell better on Playstation anyway.

Chobel said:
No bets, but I think QB will do +400K in its first month.
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Well, QB confirmed bomba... you are like a kiss of death (well, life for Playstation stuff)
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
After Tomb Raider I'm hesitant on how much a single player TPS will do on the Xbox One, espicially one that is a new IP.

QB looking to have April to itself can help, but I'm still cautious of it doing super well.

It could also have great legs, but this is something that is a bit too far out to really gauge how well it will do.

A new IP should hopefully sell well, and if this were any other developer, I would hope QB turns into a franchise, but it is Remedy. If anything after this it is going to be Alan Wake 2
pls

Y2Kev said:
I know! Pretty meh honestly. It's like the orderish, which is a tough comparison because it's one of the greatest games of all time.
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Sony were complacent in February because of Bloodborne in March, that's why the goat did so bad. Microsoft will not loose the chance to make sure QB is at least around Order's level.
 
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blakep267

Member
Steverulez said:
They bundle games because they want to help build a fanbase for them as well, theres multiple ways of looking at why they do it. Its an easy way to get the game to more people, its not like MS have much else to bundle at that time. Why can't they do Quantum Break and The Division bundles? They did TW3, Evolve, MCC at various points last year for releases, I doubt they will stick to just one game.

They are unlikely to keep bundling The Division all year round though i'd say, they'll want a first party game to pack-in, they own Quantum Break which is the first AAA new IP they've shipped this gen that they do own, I think it makes a lot of sense to try and build that up. TD will probably sell better on Playstation anyway.



Well, QB confirmed bomba... you are like a kiss of death (well, life for Playstation stuff)
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I can see them having bundles for division and QB but the main bundle will probably be halo 5. Like halo 5 at $350 and maybe a white console bundle with division for $350 that's more limited
 
K

Kyoufu

Member
I can see Quantum Break being Microsoft's The Order in terms of sales, except this will be on PC eventually.

Nothing I've seen it from it makes it look like a standout game that people will want to play on day one to be honest.
 
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PanicFreak

Member
Welfare said:
After Tomb Raider I'm hesitant on how much a single player TPS will do on the Xbox One, espicially one that is a new IP.

QB looking to have April to itself can help, but I'm still cautious of it doing super well.

It could also have great legs, but this is something that is a bit too far out to really gauge how well it will do.

A new IP should hopefully sell well, and if this were any other developer, I would hope QB turns into a franchise, but it is Remedy. If anything after this it is going to be Alan Wake 2
pls
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Come on man. It's not like all single player third person shooters are going to bomb on the Xbox One. It's one of the most common genres in the industry. Quantum Break has to get good marketing support from Microsoft, get good reviews and have good word of mouth to be successful. The genre isn't the limiting factor here.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Alan Wake did 145k in its launch month, so 200k or up would be pretty good I think for QB.

Also would depend on how aggressive Microsoft's marketing and bundle game is for it. It's the only major exclusive for them in the first half of 2016.

PanicFreak said:
Come on man. It's not like all single player third person shooters are going to bomb on the Xbox One. It's one of the most common genres in the industry. Quantum Break has to get good marketing support from Microsoft, get good reviews and have good word of mouth to be successful. The genre isn't the limiting factor here.
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I was more alluding to how badly Tomb Raider performed, and sorta gave it leeway with it having April to itself.

I hope it does really well.
 
Chobel

Chobel

Member
Steverulez said:
They bundle games because they want to help build a fanbase for them as well, theres multiple ways of looking at why they do it. Its an easy way to get the game to more people, its not like MS have much else to bundle at that time. Why can't they do Quantum Break and The Division bundles? They did TW3, Evolve, MCC at various points last year for releases, I doubt they will stick to just one game.

They are unlikely to keep bundling The Division all year round though i'd say, they'll want a first party game to pack-in, they own Quantum Break which is the first AAA new IP they've shipped this gen that they do own, I think it makes a lot of sense to try and build that up. TD will probably sell better on Playstation anyway.
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*"its not like MS have much else to bundle at that time"
Oh, They have. Halo 5 bundle and The Division bundle. Both are high profile games.

*"Why can't they do Quantum Break and The Division bundles?"
They can and I'm sure they'll make a QB bundle, but they'll focus on one bundle only, the one that sells more, The Division bundle. QB will get a limited bundle (same as SO or TR2), not much to significantly increase sales of QB.

*"They did TW3, Evolve, MCC at various points last year for releases, I doubt they will stick to just one game."
TW3 was only in Europe, and there was no Evolve bundle IIRC.

*"They are unlikely to keep bundling The Division all year round though i'd say, they'll want a first party game to pack-in, they own Quantum Break which is the first AAA new IP they've shipped this gen that they do own, I think it makes a lot of sense to try and build that up."
After The Division they'll do Halo 5 bundle.

*"TD will probably sell better on Playstation anyway."
That didn't stop MS from bundling Fallout 4 and The Witcher 3.
 
D

DriftingSpirit

Member
Welfare said:
It's the only major exclusive for them in the first half of 2016.
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Speaking of that, what else is launching first half of the year exclusively for X1?

QB
Recore

Those are the two that come to mind but what about Sea of Thieves? Do we have any sort of indication when that is supposed to be hitting? You may be right and MS will really try to push QB as their major exclusive before the holidays hit. Commercials, bundles, etc...
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Chobel said:
TW3 was only in Europe, and there was no Evolve bundle IIRC.
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No Evolve bundle.

DriftingSpirit said:
Speaking of that, what else is launching first half of the year exclusively for X1?

QB
Recore

Those are the two that come to mind but what about Sea of Thieves? Do we have any sort of indication when that is supposed to be hitting? You may be right and MS will really try to push QB as their major exclusive before the holidays hit. Commercials, bundles, etc...
Click to expand...
Sea of Thieves is most likely a 2016 release.
 
peter42O

peter42O

Member
Welfare said:
After Tomb Raider I'm hesitant on how much a single player TPS will do on the Xbox One, espicially one that is a new IP.
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For me, QB is a pre-order and pick up on release day purchase. Tomb Raider is seen as a PlayStation franchise, not Xbox so that was just one of the three reasons why it did bad. Horrible release date (if possible, should have been moved up to October 6th) and being timed exclusive were the other two reasons.

I'm looking forward to playing Quantum Break and seeing as how it's a new IP and from Remedy, im looking forward to it more than a few other games coming out around the same time and yes, that does include Uncharted 4.

Considering that ROTTR sold 200K, I would be very surprised if QB doesn't sell at least double that in April. Hopefully, Quantum Break is the start of Microsoft spreading out their exclusives which is something I prefer.

One things is guaranteed though - it sure as hell won't sell less than ROTTR.
 
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Steverulez

Member
Chobel said:
*"its not like MS have much else to bundle at that time"
Oh, They have. Halo 5 bundle and The Division bundle. Both are high profile games.

*"Why can't they do Quantum Break and The Division bundles?"
They can and I'm sure they'll make a QB bundle, but they'll focus on one bundle only, the one that sells more, The Division bundle. QB will get a limited bundle (same as SO or TR2), not much to significantly increase sales of QB.

*"They did TW3, Evolve, MCC at various points last year for releases, I doubt they will stick to just one game."
TW3 was only in Europe, and there was no Evolve bundle IIRC.

*"TD will probably sell better on Playstation anyway."
That didn't stop MS from bundling Fallout 4 and The Witcher 3.
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I can't see Microsoft choosing to bundle Halo 5 over Quantum Break, all the stats and info coming out about this generation have made it clear that people are buying bundles and want them, it would be a pointless exercise to push Halo 5 ahead of QB 6 months later. Also a limited edition only bundle is another fairly poor idea which I think they'll have learnt from.

Their main two bundles this holiday were the Gears of War UE bundle (at $299 on offer) and the holiday bundle was Ori, Rare Replay and Gears UE ($349 on offer), notice what those three games have in common...

Microsoft-Xbox-One-Console-with-Evolve-Bundle~95C374FRSP.jpg
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I think MS have proven this holiday there will be a lot of bundles going forwards, I don't see a scenario where they ignore the new franchises they are trying to build given their current situation, The Division obviously won't be ignored but I think they will put a lot in Quantum Break to give it the best chance to succeed, which will be important to them
 
Chobel

Chobel

Member
Steverulez said:
I can't see Microsoft choosing to bundle Halo 5 over Quantum Break, all the stats and info coming out about this generation have made it clear that people are buying bundles and want them, it would be a pointless exercise to push Halo 5 ahead of QB 6 months later. Also a limited edition only bundle is another fairly poor idea which I think they'll have learnt from.

Their main two bundles this holiday were the Gears of War UE bundle (at $299 on offer) and the holiday bundle was Ori, Rare Replay and Gears UE ($349 on offer), notice what those three games have in common...
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You're really overestimating QB appeal, Halo 5 even 6 month later will have more appeal to console buyers.

And these two bundles have Gears UE in common, a popular (kinda) MP shooter.

Steverulez said:
I think MS have proven this holiday there will be a lot of bundles going forwards, I don't see a scenario where they ignore the new franchises they are trying to build given their current situation.
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Yes a lot of bundles, but the focus is one or two bundles. They're not mass bundling everything.
 
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blakep267

Member
Steverulez said:
I can't see Microsoft choosing to bundle Halo 5 over Quantum Break, all the stats and info coming out about this generation have made it clear that people are buying bundles and want them, it would be a pointless exercise to push Halo 5 ahead of QB 6 months later. Also a limited edition only bundle is another fairly poor idea which I think they'll have learnt from.

Their main two bundles this holiday were the Gears of War UE bundle (at $299 on offer) and the holiday bundle was Ori, Rare Replay and Gears UE ($349 on offer), notice what those three games have in common...



I think MS have proven this holiday there will be a lot of bundles going forwards, I don't see a scenario where they ignore the new franchises they are trying to build given their current situation, The Division obviously won't be ignored but I think they will put a lot in Quantum Break to give it the best chance to succeed, which will be important to them
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quantum break comes out in April, and last year MS did the MCC bundle in early March. So Halo 5 is probably going to be the main bundle game by default for their mass spring/summer bundles.

Plus while bundling QB would be good, it's more lucrative to bundle Halo just to keep the population high and make req money.
 
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