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Official May 2007 NPD Prediction Thread

Brak

Member
[NDS] 450,000
[WII] 290,000
[PS2] 175,000
[PSP] 175,000
[360] 155,000
[PS3] 90,000
[GBA] 80,000
[GCN] 14,000
 

TheCardPlayer

Likes to have "friends" around to "play cards" with
I'll try this month


[DS] 400000
[Wii] 370000
[PS2] 220000
[360] 200000
[PSP] 150000
[GBA] 90000
[PS3] 70000
[GC] 7000
 
Cheesemeister said:
Post formatting guidelines for the parser...

List numeric values following system tags on their own lines in a post. All non-numeric characters following the tag will be stripped out, save for the first instance of the letter K in either upper or lower-case, which will be replaced with 3 zeroes. Make predictions by the set deadline, at which point the parser will be run. If a given poster has more than one post with predictions, guesses in subsequent posts will override previous guesses. By the same token, subsequent guesses on the same system within a given post will overwrite previous guesses.

Some examples of valid input follow, but do at least keep them readable for your fellow forum-goers.

[PS2] 123,456
[PSP] 123456
[PS3] 123K
[360] 123k - because of Halo 3 anticipation
[GBA]12 3 Totakeke
[NGC] 1 2 3 4 5 6
[NDS] 123456 (You will say WOW.)
[WII] 123'456

Invalid input:

Sony PlayStation 2: 123,455 plus one
PS Three - 123KK
Weeeeee ~ one hundred twenty-three thousand kajillion units!!!1lol
...

Any lines without valid input, i.e. your comments, will be ignored. Questions, comments?
I cannot quote this post enough. Too bad I was commuting during the start of the page.
 
Parl said:
Well, don't shoot the middle man, but they were only out for half a week.

So was Guitar Hero 2 360. So was Spider-Man 3. So were a lot of other one-week wonders. Most games sell a TON of copies in the first week of their release, especially on the 360, so high profile games can easily crack the top ten with 3-4 days of sales.

Also, don't forget that most 360 games have leaderboards, which give a decent indication of sales :)
 

Parl

Member
dammitmattt said:
So was Guitar Hero 2 360. So was Spider-Man 3 360. So were a lot of other one-week wonders. Most games sell a TON of copies in the first week of their release, especially on the 360, so high profile games can easily crack the top ten with 3-4 days of sales.

Also, don't forget that most 360 games have leaderboards, which give a decent indication of sales :)

April: [360] Spider-Man 3 - 117K

And Guitar Hero is ****ing Guitar Hero.
 
Parl said:
April: [360] Spider-Man 3 - 117K

And Guitar Hero is ****ing Guitar Hero.

I didn't mean to throw the 360 at the end of Spider-Man 3 because I was really referring to all versions of it, but I think it's safe to assume that Forza 2 means much more to the X360 audience than Spider-Man 3, so sales for that comparable period will be higher for Forza 2. Plus, leaderboards.
 

starship

psycho_snake's and The Black Brad Pitt's B*TCH
[NDS] 456k
[WII] 374k
[PS2] 188k
[360] 183k
[PSP] 170k
[PS3] 96k
[GBA] 79k

[GCN] 12k
[XBX] 300
 

Deku

Banned
There ought to be a disclaimer for those who posts after Pachter's predictions as I'm sure many will just take his as a baseline and add/subtract from it for their predictions.


And for the record, Pachter's predictions
[Wii] 400,000
[PS3] 100,000
[360] 225,000
[PS2] 250,000
[PSP] 175,000
[DS] 475,000
[GBA] 75,000
[GCN] -
[XBX] -

edit: put into quotes as requested.
 
Cheesemeister said:
Please put Pachter and other analyst numbers inside of quote blocks. Thanks.
Will you be adding his, and other publicly available predictions to the ranking, or will you just(not to trivialize, just to define scope) be collecting the data in the thread?
 
donny2112 said:
A certain set of publicly available predictions you have in mind? :p
I don't know. I hadn't really thought about. We could do ioi's data for comedy purposes. We would probably want to check with Dragona first to make sure that it's an acceptable exception to the ban though.
 

JJConrad

Sucks at viral marketing
[NDS] 430,000
[Wii] 360,000
[PS2] 180,000
[360] 160,000
[PSP] 140,000
[GBA] 65,000
[PS3] 64,999
[GCN] 10,000
[XBX] N/A
 
The 360 would have to be higher than that, shouldn't the Elite boost the sales? Even if it isn't the most price friendly SKU you gotta figure some hardcore XBots bought another 360 in the Elite flavor.
 

Deku

Banned
bmf said:
I don't know. I hadn't really thought about. We could do [censored]'s data for comedy purposes. We would probably want to check with Dragona first to make sure that it's an acceptable exception to the ban though.

No. you'll just be directing traffic to his site. I'm not sure why there's a need to keep mocking him. Everytime he is mentioned here, he probably makes a proportional income in ad revenues from clueless gaffers googling his numbers.
 
Deku said:
No. you'll just be directing traffic to his site. I'm not sure why there's a need to keep mocking him. Everytime he is mentioned here, he probably makes a proportional income in ad revenues from clueless gaffers googling his numbers.
Agreed and signed. ioi doesnt need anymore money.

My predictions:

[DS] 500,000
[Wii] 350,000
[PS2] 285,000
[360] 180,000
[PSP] 120,000
[GBA] 90,000
[PS3] 80,000

Picture Version:

RISETOHEAVEN.jpg


2vwyecz.gif


wiiroadblock.gif


soclose.gif


gbasskicking.gif


and

sonyspin.gif
 
bmf said:
Will you be adding his, and other publicly available predictions to the ranking, or will you just(not to trivialize, just to define scope) be collecting the data in the thread?

I could, if there were a specified list of posters I could trust to post accurate analyst data.

I'm also planning on including a List of Shame for users who didn't follow the correct format.
 

Deku

Banned
Cheesemeister said:
I could, if there were a specified list of posters I could trust to post accurate analyst data.

I'm also planning on including a List of Shame for users who didn't follow the correct format.

Pachter's predictions came from SCB. If you mean you need someone trustworthy to report that here, there I suppose the thread starter can do that for you.
 
Deku said:
No. you'll just be directing traffic to his site. I'm not sure why there's a need to keep mocking him. Everytime he is mentioned here, he probably makes a proportional income in ad revenues from clueless gaffers googling his numbers.
We don't need to link his site in order to do it. Neither do we need to include the site's name. I'm tired of playing this side of the discussion, so I won't anymore.
 
Alright, I've got the List of Shame functionality going. The following users have posted in this thread without valid prediction input...

perfectchaos007
polg
methane47
phez
Heidir
papercut
krypt0nian
Sharp
JadedOne
Jammy
ElAlcesDiablo
C.T.
VanMardigan
sonycowboy
Majik
AdmiralViscen
scionguyXB
DayShallCome
underfooter
The M.O.B
Mithos Yggdrasill
Cedeo
Mrbob
ComputerNerd
soundwave05
a Master Ninja
farnham
the thoroughbred
 

Sharp

Member
Cheesemeister said:
Alright, I've got the List of Shame functionality going. The following users have posted in this thread without valid prediction input...

perfectchaos007
polg
methane47
phez
Heidir
papercut
krypt0nian
Sharp
JadedOne
Jammy
ElAlcesDiablo
C.T.
VanMardigan
sonycowboy
Majik
AdmiralViscen
scionguyXB
DayShallCome
underfooter
The M.O.B
Mithos Yggdrasill
Cedeo
Mrbob
ComputerNerd
soundwave05
a Master Ninja
farnham
the thoroughbred
You're missing Cheesemeister, AKA not everyone who posted voted.
 
Sharp said:
You're missing Cheesemeister, AKA not everyone who posted voted.

Oh, but I did. Sort of.

Cheesemeister said:
[PS2] 123,456
[PSP] 123456
[PS3] 123K
[360] 123k - because of Halo 3 anticipation
[GBA]12 3 Totakeke
[NGC] 1 2 3 4 5 6
[NDS] 123456 (You will say WOW.)
[WII] 123'456
 

donny2112

Member
I've said before that I'll just manually input anyone who doesn't use the parser format. Giving more options encourages participation, and it's pretty clear that most are following the parser format, anyways. :) That doesn't preclude you from doing a "List of Shame," though. :lol
 
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