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Official April 2007 NPD Prediction Thread

T

Threi

notag
Chiggs said:
Nintendo DS: 1.2k - Pokemon!
PSP: 890k - April Momentum + Price Drop + Tax returns
PS3: 745k - April Momentum + Tax returns + Home and LBP on the Horizon--and these will attract the casuals, believe me!
Nintendo Wii: 125k - Can't find them in stores
Xbox 360: 75k - Nobody likes the Elite on GAF, so it won't sell.
Click to expand...

I seriously thought i was daydreaming when i read this. :lol
 
S

STG!

Member
Predictions:

Nintendo DS 488K
PlayStation 2 265K
Wii 296K
Xbox 360 225K
PlayStation Portable 203K
Game Boy Advance 138K
PlayStation 3 112K
GameCube 18K
Xbox n/a
 
K

Kenka

Member
OK, OK, the temptation is just too high.

My predictions :

NDS : 613 k
Wii : 368 k
PSP : 279 k
PS2 : 213 k
360 : 195 k
GBA : 112 k
PS3 : 110 k
GCN : 31 k

Enjoy.
 
J

jimbo

Banned
Wii - 250k - the flood of shipments is more of a perception. I don't believe it saw a significant increase.
X360 - 225k -slow early in the month sales because of the Elite. Elite supply too limited.
PS3 - 95k - Just because it's fun to predict sub 100k
DS- 300k
PSP-250k - price drop
PS2 - 275k - will reclaim its top spot for consoles
GBA - 80k- Who cares?
GC - 10k - See above, why are we still doing this? No one cares anymore
 
I

Innotech

Banned
jimbo said:
Wii - 250k - the flood of shipments is more of a perception. I don't believe it saw a significant increase.
X360 - 225k -slow early in the month sales because of the Elite. Elite supply too limited.
PS3 - 95k - Just because it's fun to predict sub 100k
DS- 300k
PSP-250k - price drop
PS2 - 275k - will reclaim its top spot for consoles
GBA - 80k- Who cares?
GC - 10k - See above, why are we still doing this? No one cares anymore
Click to expand...

Srsly?
Pokemans.....
 
2

2600

Member
Nintendo DS 620K
PlayStation 2 220K
Wii 310K
Xbox 360 235K
PlayStation Portable 175K
Game Boy Advance 130K
PlayStation 3 85K
GameCube 18K
Xbox 0K
 
C

Crypto

Banned
The Sphinx said:
April 22...
Click to expand...

OK then half and half.

Still the DS numbers are always so high that the fluctuations could be extreme too, IMO.

Somewhere between 200k and 2 million units, OK?
 
P

Parl

Member
My predictions:

DS: 493,000
Wii: 277,000
PS2: 207,000
PSP: 184,000
X360: 164,000
GBA: 104,000
PS3: 89,000

GC: 15,000
Xbox: 250
 
P

Parl

Member
The Sphinx said:
Interesting. Very interesting.

Just to satisfy my curiousity I ran a similar analysis of the Japanese numbers. I took the MC numbers for every week, added them up to 4 or 5 week months to correspond with the NPD polling periods, found an average per-week sales rate for each of those periods, and then calculated the percentage drop for each. It looks like this:

December: 60,232 weekly average
January: 31,061 weekly average (48.4% drop)
February: 26,856 weekly average (13.6% drop)
March: 21,124 weekly average (21.3% drop)
April: 12,178 weekly average (42.3% drop!)

You may notice the February drop was rather small, and the April drop is huge. This is because of the Gundabump in late February and early March (release of Gundam Musou, the biggest PS3 game in Japan to date). There is no equivalent release in the US. Once again out of curiousity I artificially removed the Gundabump weeks, recalculated the averages, and came up with this:

December: 60,232 weekly average
January: 31,061 weekly average (48.4% drop)
February: 21,141 weekly average (31.9% drop)
March: 17,289 weekly average (18.2% drop)
April: 12,178 weekly average (29.6% drop)

Now the rate of decreased sales from January thru March in Media-Create data match the NPD trends rather closely. 32% drop in February, 18% in March. In April the rate of decline actually picks up, to nearly 30%, despite a holiday week we don't have in the US. If the US market were to behave in a similar manner we would predict weekly sales of ~18,304, or only ~73,216 sales for the month.

Granted, the US market isn't exactly like the Japanese market, but with the exception of the Gundabump they have been behaving in a similar manner toward the PS3 up to this point.
Click to expand...

Interesting, I personally believe that the US market won't act that way and will clock in around 90,000 for April (my prediction is 89,000).

Another interesting point is that ALL of my numbers for my prediction look low - some exceedingly low compared to many, many others, yet my numbers still give a year-on-year hardware sales growth of 78.3% compared to last April.

This year's March saw impressive growth of 75.6% compared to March 2006. I think people are being bullish.
 
G

ghst

thanks for the laugh
battlerageson1-1.jpg


.....and so the battle rages on.




(p.s guess the original game and win 9 internets.)
 
M

Miniboss1232

Member
Hey, I didn't do too bad last month. Let me give it a shot:

EDIT:
Yeah, scratch everything I had before. I had forgotten about the Pokemans, the fact that not many games released this month, and the trends that Sphinx pointed out between US and Japanese PS3s. So here's my second attempt:

NDS - 650K (oh, why not? it's Pokemans)
WII - 375K
PS2 - 230K
360 - 225K
PSP - 210K
GBA - 120K
PS3 - 90K
GCN - 10K
XBX - 0

More DS means more Pokemon. My Wii estimate stands as before. I knocked the PS2 down a bit (no GOW2 this month). The 360 estimate stands, with a nice bump from the Elite. I think the price drop will have a decent effect on the PSP. GBA should decline, and the PS3 should follow Japanese trends.
 
J

JoshuaJSlone

Member
DS: 600K
Wii: 400K
X360: 240K
PS2: 190K
PSP: 180K
GBA: 95K
PS3: 90K
Mariah Carey said:
Anything's possible, but PS3 sales, however small, have actually been pretty steady. I wouldn't put money on it dipping below 100k this month--- there's plenty more months in the year for that to happen.
Click to expand...
Plenty more months, yes, but those months tend to push bigger numbers than April.
dammitmattt said:
Also, why does everyone keep saying the 360 will see a "boost" or a "small boost" in sales thanks to the Elite and then make a prediction that is within a couple of percentage points of last month? That's not exactly what I would call a boost.
Click to expand...
April is usually a shitty month for sales. Breaking even from March would be above average.
 
S

SteelHunter88

Banned
Nintendo DS 480k
PlayStation 2 230k
Wii 460k
Xbox 360 240k
PlayStation Portable 190k
Game Boy Advance 140k
PlayStation 3 120k
GameCube 19k
Xbox n/a

Heh...
 
S

starship

psycho_snake's and The Black Brad Pitt's B*TCH
NDS - 630k
Wii - 340k
PS2 - 250k
PSP - 200k
X360 - 180k
GBA - 110k
PS3 - 105k
GC - 15k
XBX - 0k

Pokemon D/P - 1.7m
Super Paper Mario - 350k
 
S

speculawyer

Member
My predictions (Speculawyer's first time in the game):

NDS - 465K (Pokemon will keep DS sales strong)
WII - 360K (I feel N held back Wiis in March & released them in April.)
360 - 210K (Elite sales will help)
PS2 - 190K (360 will finally pass the PS2)
PSP - 170K (I don't really care. Price drop has only slight effect.)
GBA - 115K (Beats the PS3 in their grudge match)
PS3 - 110K (
Can't say much or I'll get banned again
.)

GCN - 3K (Does anyone care? Get a Wii, it plays gamecube games.)
XBX - ~0K (Not even Steve Balmer cares.)
 
S

Sharp

Member
I'm still not predicting anything, but I do think the PSP's price drop had a substantial effect on its sales. I suspect that anyone with the PSP under at least 200k is underestimating.

Edit: Okay, I guess I am predicting something. But not really.
 
P

Parl

Member
Sharp said:
I'm still not predicting anything, but I do think the PSP's price drop had a substantial effect on its sales. I suspect that anyone with the PSP under at least 200k is underestimating.

Edit: Okay, I guess I am predicting something. But not really.
Click to expand...

I'm prepared to call you out on that one. Bear in mind that the price drop happened during March. I have 184k for PSP. That's a 28% increase in sales.
 
S

Sharp

Member
Parl said:
I'm prepared to call you out on that one. Bear in mind that the price drop happened during March. I have 184k for PSP. That's a 28% increase in sales.
Click to expand...
Didn't it only last for a few days of sales, though? The reason I said what I did is that I've noticed a lot more PSPs around in the past month.
 
S

Shepherd

Unconfirmed Member
donny2112 said:
Pachter Predictions from here.

Wii 300,000
PS3 100,000
Xbox 360 175,000
PS2 250,000
PSP 200,000
DS 450,000
GBA 100,000
Click to expand...

How accurate was Pachter last month?
 
G

ghst

thanks for the laugh
dammitmattt said:
In The Hunt is the only other one I could think of.
Click to expand...

Nope.

Clue: The games fantasy Steampunk artstyle is what made it for me with it's awesome whimsy.
 
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