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Official April 2007 NPD Prediction Thread

A

Atreides

Member
NDS 550K (extra shipments for pokemon)
WII 310K (extra shipments for beginning of the fiscal year)
360 190K (higer weekly than march because of elite)
PS2 210K (a bit less weekly than march)
PSP 175K (higer weekly than march because of price drop)
PS3 95K (as bit less weekly than march)
GBA 105K (a bit less weekly than march)
GC 15K (a bit less weekly than march)
 
S

Shepherd

Unconfirmed Member
How many units did the 360 sell it`s first April in the US? Is the PS3s 100,000 good or bad in comparison?
 
D

dammitmattt

Banned
Shepherd said:
How many units did the 360 sell it`s first April in the US? Is the PS3s 100,000 good or bad in comparison?
Click to expand...

The PS3's 100k units is bad in comparison to any month the 360 has done, or will do in the future.
 
J

justchris

Member
So, according to GAF predictions, the PS3 is going to lose to the GBA for the 3rd month in a row. I suppose I'll make my own predictions, but I'm not very confident in them, there's just too much to take into consideration for last month.

DS 730k (with pokemon, should closely match sales for Japan, may be higher since DS hasn't been supply constrained in the US like it has in Japan)
Wii 360k (should be similar to Japan numbers for the same period)
PS2 225k
360 200k
PSP 200k (around the same as the 360, but I think the 360 will beat it out).
GBA 100k (migration from GBA to DS for Pokemon)
PS3 90k (no price drop, no games, no sales)
GCN 11k
 
B

Beer Monkey

Member
Nintendo DS 376k
PlayStation 2 207k
Wii 192k
Xbox 360 179k
PlayStation Portable 216k
Game Boy Advance 110k
PlayStation 3 96k
GameCube 16k
 
A

apujanata

Member
dammitmattt said:
Can one of you:

chibcicylist
Visualante
felipeko
Xisiqomelir
bmf
CrushDance
akachan ningen

...answer this question for me - are you card-carrying Nintendo (or maybe even Sony) fanboys or do you actually, really believe that the 360 sales are going to DROP by anywhere from 5-30% of last month's number despite the launch of a new SKU that was sold out in many regions (not mine, though)?!?

Well, I know at least one of you
hi, chib
is actually insane, but what are everyone else's excuses?
Click to expand...

Well, based on your definition, I believe that Pachter is Nintendo fanboys, since he predicted only 175,000 sales of X360 in April ?

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=6400584#post6400584
 
C

corez

Member
Hehe, it's that time of the month again! Below is my prediction.

NDS: 400K
Wii: 350K
PS2: 200k
360: 180k
PSP: 160k
GBA: 120k
PS3: 90K
 
A

AzureNightmare

Banned
CrushDance said:
Like others said. First shipments were low, secondly there weren't really any system moving games this month either. Spiderman 3 was on everything so I don't really see a big jump for that. Xbox will do 250k at the most I think. But due to the elite and trade ins etc it'll be less. It only puses well after a big game comes out for several months then goes down till the next big game.
Click to expand...

HEY. ITS CRUSHDANCE!
c64226bc86.jpg
 
B

Bildi

Member
NDS - 480K
Wii - 295K
PS2 - 220K
360 - 212K
PSP - 160K
GBA - 116K
PS3 - 101K
GCN - 15K

C'mon guys, we gotta beat thems Wedbush bastards.
 
L

LOCK

Member
NDS: 1m Pokemans Let Me Show you Them!
Wii: 420k
360: 280k Elite
PS2: 260k
PSP: 180k
GBA: 130k
PS3: 110k
GC: 15k
Xbox: 5 units

Pokemons: ~2m
Super Mario God of Paper: 500k
 
A

Auron_Kale

Member
NDS: 520k
Wii: 375k
PS2: 273k
360: 224k (overall)
Elite: 183k
GBA: 110k
PS3: ~100k
NGC: 74k
XBox: 0

Best-Selling Games:
Pokemon Diamond
Pokemon Pearl
Super Paper Mario
Guitar Hero 360
God of War 2
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Any words on DS/Wii shortages? Last month was very good for the DS at half a million sold. I wonder if the supply took a hit this month
 
T

tanod

when is my burrito
Nintendo DS 450K
Wii 250K
Game Boy Advance 125K

PlayStation 2 250K
PlayStation Portable 200K
PlayStation 3 120K

Xbox 360 225k
 
T

thefro

Member
Wii definitely got a lot of supply in at the end of the month/beginning of May, so I'd expect stronger numbers than in March. Probably over 300k.
 
F

Flyguy

Member
Nintendo DS 515K
Wii 307K
PlayStation 2 235K
Xbox 360 201K
PlayStation Portable 150K
Game Boy Advance 120K
PlayStation 3 100K
 
S

speculawyer

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Any words on DS/Wii shortages? Last month was very good for the DS at half a million sold. I wonder if the supply took a hit this month
Click to expand...

Regarding the Wii, my (and many others') view is that N held back some shipments in March to move them to their next fiscal year that started in April.

The Wii is still in short supply, but it seems to be easing a bit . . . it seems that you can buy one now if you are willing to buy a bundle.
 
M

Meier

Member
NDS 535K
WII 289K
360 234K
PS2 198K
PSP 192K
GBA 107K
PS3 89K
GCN 14K
XBX 1K

I wonder if Pachter ever looks at the prediction results and just shakes his head and laughs since he's making bank but still places that low.
 
D

deepbrown

Member
Nintendo DS 525K
PlayStation 2 310K
Wii 280K
PlayStation Portable 235K
Xbox 360 190K
PlayStation 3 130K
Game Boy Advance 105K
GameCube 11K
 
I

Ikael

Member
Nintendo DS 600K (everything they can ship)
PlayStation 2 225K
Wii 310K
Xbox 360 290K
PlayStation Portable 165K
Game Boy Advance 130K
PlayStation 3 90K
GameCube LOL
 
P

Parl

Member
gollumsluvslave said:
Wii - 315
360 - 160
PS3 - 85k

No guts no glory :D
Click to expand...

Exactly. Lots of high-balling going off here too. I actually agree with your 360 and PS3 predictions. Mine are just 4k higher for both. Wii, however, a little too high, methinks.
 
Haunted

Haunted

Member
bud said:
ds>wii>ps2>360>gba>ps3>gc>xbox
Click to expand...
pussy.

numbers or bust!

Parl said:
Exactly. Lots of high-balling going off here too. I actually agree with your 360 and PS3 predictions..
Click to expand...
Yeah, after actually looking at last month's results (thanks for counting donny!), I realised I high-balled nearly every console a couple thousands. :( I guess I'm an optimist.

Clever Pun said:
awesome, thanks for that link, I never saw it last time!
Click to expand...
and with 'thanks for that link' you mean ' holy ****ing shit, someone did the old image host switcheroo!' The mods should check pages 8 and 9 of the March NPD thread.



It's too late for me, but others can be saved still ;_;
 
T

Threi

notag
jarrod said:
DS~ 666k
Wii~ 358k
PS2~ 265k
PSP~ 228k
360~ 196k
GBA~ 114k
PS3~ 82k
GC~ 15k
XB~ 13
Click to expand...

I agree.

Mr. Pachunga Chung said:
Fine i'll play this stupid game...

Nintendo DS 666K
Wii 230K
Game Boy Advance 101K
GameCube 11K

PlayStation 2 220K
PlayStation Portable 160K
PlayStation 3 100K

Xbox 360 190K
Xbox 17
Click to expand...
 
P

Parl

Member
Haunted One said:
Yeah, after actually looking at last month's results (thanks for counting donny!), I realised I high-balled nearly every console a couple thousands. :( I guess I'm an optimist.
Click to expand...

My predictions are the lowest serious ones here, I think. And that's 78% hardware units sales growth compared to last year. March saw huge sales compared to last year, a 75% increase. So even my low numbers have a higher increase YOY for April than the really impressive March numbers.
 
O

Orgen

Member
WII - 321.000
PS2 - 227.000
X360 - 196.000
PS3 - 89.000

NDS - 435.000
PSP - 188.000
GBA - 124.000

GCN - 17.000
XBX - 2.000
 
R

Rancid Mildew

Banned
DS - 700K. I don't think it's severely supply constrained anymore so the Pokemon boost would be felt to the fullest extent.

Wii - 350K. Lots of shipments from what I have seen and heard. The supply issue has been dealt with as comprehensively as possible since launch. With Super Paper Mario and pent up demand, I wouldn't be surprised if it surpassed 400K.

X360 - 180K. The Elite helped raise sales. Because of that, it would probably remain fairly stable from March. Considering the shorter month, 180K seems reasonable.

PS2 - 170K. After GoW2, there should be a fairly large drop. It's still THE system to own so it will sell fairly well as usual.

PSP - 160K. That price drop probably means more people will buy it still.

GBA - 110K. I have no clue why it would still be this high.

PS3 - 90K. Shorter month, high price, game drought, traditionally bad sales period = noticeable drop. PS3 sales will probably fall until Lair and a price drop. It wouldn't be realistic to expect sales to remain constant.

GC - 9K. Zelda demand is prompting more GC purchases still I guess?
 
S

Scottlarock

Banned
I can't believe the PS3 might actually fall under 100k, thats just insane. With the playstation brand behind it, the high price just killed it. just crazy.

and the 360, being about for 18 months, needs a price drop. its time.
 
S

spwolf

Member
Nintendo DS 450k
PlayStation 2 240k
Wii 239.99k
Xbox 360 125k
PlayStation Portable 210k
PlayStation 3 200,001


:lol
 
X

xabre

Banned
Nintendo DS 401k
PlayStation 2 246k
Wii 274k
Xbox 360 173k
PlayStation Portable 211k
Game Boy Advance 110k
PlayStation 3 99k
GameCube 8k
 
Eteric Rice

Eteric Rice

Member
Scottlarock said:
I can't believe the PS3 might actually fall under 100k, thats just insane. With the playstation brand behind it, the high price just killed it. just crazy.

and the 360, being about for 18 months, needs a price drop. its time.
Click to expand...

Welcome to the next generation!

If you want to go back to the last generation, please contact the man with the police box. Very bright eyed fellow, calls himself "the Doctor." I'm sure he could help you out.
 
B

Bildi

Member
bmf said:
Does anyone have a line graph for the last 6 months handy?
Click to expand...
Here's one I did. I didn't include 360 sales prior to November because I thought the graph was more useful this way (and I couldn't find a reliable figure).

200603NPDCumulativeSales.jpg


Here's the NPD sales numbers I used:
Code: 
	        360	    Wii         PS3
Nov 2006	511,000	    476,000	197,000
Dec 2006	1,100,000   604,200	490,700
Jan 2007	294,000	    436,000	244,000
Feb 2007	228,000     335,000	127,000
Mar 2007	199,000     259,000	130,000
 
J

JDSN

Banned
My Predictions

1. NDS - 660K
2. WII - 480K
3. 360 - 220K
4. PS2 - 290K
5. PSP - 200K
6. GBA - 140K
7. PS3 - 130k
 
G

Grampa Simpson

Banned
Bildi said:
Here's one I did. I didn't include 360 sales prior to November because I thought the graph was more useful this way (and I couldn't find a reliable figure).

200603NPDCumulativeSales.jpg


Here's the NPD sales numbers I used:
Code: 
	        360	    Wii         PS3
Nov 2006	511,000	    476,000	197,000
Dec 2006	1,100,000   604,200	490,700
Jan 2007	294,000	    436,000	244,000
Feb 2007	228,000     335,000	127,000
Mar 2007	199,000     259,000	130,000
Click to expand...

Moved from the other thread:
I think that was me. Very cool graph. I get the vibe that Wii should pass the 360 on that graph in once the May numbers come in.
 
B

Bildi

Member
bmf said:
Moved from the other thread:
I think that was me. Very cool graph. I get the vibe that Wii should pass the 360 on that graph in once the May numbers come in.
Click to expand...
I was surprised at the solid trends. Even though March was a long month, the trends stayed pretty much the same. The Wii has slowly been eating away at the 360's lead which was a result of big Christmas sales. It does look like it will catch up in a couple of months.
 
Eteric Rice

Eteric Rice

Member
Okay, I'm now convinced that the Wii is going to win.

A while back someone mentioned how he's surprised that no one has made a porn with the Wii mote in it.

Well I just ran across one.

:lol :lol :lol :lol :lol

Deel - do... HAHAHAHA

OMG SHE TRIED TO SHOVE A GUITAR HERO CONTROLLER UP THE GUY'S ASS WTF
 
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