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Official April 2007 NPD Prediction Thread

C

chibcicylist

Banned
Bildi said:
Please use this only for good, not for evil.

200703GraphofControversy.jpg
Click to expand...
:lol
 
N

nli10

Member
Bildi said:
Graph + :lol
Click to expand...

Nice graph - the new numbers might even add more controversy. :D

The fact that they all launched in the same month (but dif years) makes seasonal variation a non entity too. Xbox 360 had a good April last year though so PS3 will struggle to regain that slight difference.
 
V

Version 3.0

Member
speculawyer said:
Ah . . . I see. But then again, comparing sales of two supply constrained consoles is kinda pointless.
Click to expand...

Seems to me it makes at least as much sense as comparing one that is with one that isn't...wouldn't you say?

The point is, the Wii is selling nearly twice as much while being even harder to find in stores. It's not crushing the 360's second year (although it is beating it handily), but it is crushing its first year. When the 360 came into wide availability, it levelled off much lower than it looks like the Wii is going to.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Leondexter said:
Seems to me it makes at least as much sense as comparing one that is with one that isn't...wouldn't you say?
Click to expand...

Yep.

Leondexter said:
The point is, the Wii is selling nearly twice as much while being even harder to find in stores. It's not crushing the 360's second year (although it is beating it handily), but it is crushing its first year.
Click to expand...

But then again, this year is this year . . . Nintendo can't go back & compete against the 360 in 2005. And every year SD becomes older and HDTV penetration increases.
 
S

Speevy

Banned
I can't believe we need to make a comparison graph that puts the 360 and PS3 side-by-side.

Oh my goodness the PS3 is selling like crap, but it's okay, because it's selling slightly less crappy worldwide, and...

Do you realize how much the PS3 is failing is a completely separate issue to the Xbox 360's limited popularity?
 
C

chibcicylist

Banned
speculawyer said:
Yep.



But then again, this year is this year . . . Nintendo can't go back & compete against the 360 in 2005. And every year SD becomes older and HDTV penetration increases.
Click to expand...
Yeah and Nintendo is happy. They are *still* outselling the 360 by at least a third. Tomorrow's numbers should widen the gap.
 
J

JDSN

Banned
The system wars is everywhere in this board, that means the NPD is coming and the purge is about to start.

Bye bye, chibci.
 
V

Version 3.0

Member
speculawyer said:
But then again, this year is this year . . . Nintendo can't go back & compete against the 360 in 2005. And every year SD becomes older and HDTV penetration increases.
Click to expand...

Nintendo doesn't need to go back, they're already winning. Just because they're not winning by a ton--in one territory only--doesn't mean they're suddenly on the rocks.

But actually, remember, according to both sides, they're not competing. I subscribe to that theory to a degree, for the record. I think the Wii60 is the winner this gen, because Nintendo's success with the Wii hasn't hurt the 360 so far. But when comparing the two, the Wii is obviously the big winner, and Microsoft's head start is going to be gone very soon, and probably won't last in the long run even here in the US.
 
P

pickwick

Member
DS: 650k (pokémon)
Wii: 420k (80k/week + 100k that has "mysteriously" disappeared in march)
PS2: 250k
360: 300k (Elite)
PSP: 230k
GBA: 120k
PS3: 99k
 
P

Parl

Member
SteelHunter88 said:
6a13b4d94d.jpg
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Somebody should photoshop something different onto that screen so we can have a special GAF notmyproblem.jpg

Eteric Rice said:
Numbers are tonight, right?
Click to expand...

Yes, they are! It's going to be epic! Here's a meltdown score card...

1) GBA > PS3 (1 point, should be more but we should accept GBA's undying resistance)
2) PS3 below 100,000 (3 points)
3) PS3 below 90,000 (3 extra points)
4) Xbox 360 below 200,000 with the advent of Elite (3 points)
5) Xbox 360 below 175,000 (3 extra points)
6) PSP below 200,000 with full month of price drop (1 point)
7) Xbox 360 > Wii (10 points)

I think we're gonna get 14 points on the meltdown scale. What's others' opinions on what will and won't be epic?
 
F

farnham

Banned
Puredikussion

360 250k
wii 270k
ds 500k
PS3 100k
PS2 280k

software

1. Pokemon Diamond and Pearl
2. Super paper mario
3. Guitar hero
4. GRAW 2 or Wii Play
 
M

Mallika

Member
Not too late, hopefully.

1. NDS - 485K
2. WII - 350K
3. 360 - 220K
4. PS2 - 195K
5. PSP - 175K
6. GBA - 122K
7. PS3 - 100K
8. GCN - 10K
9. XBX - 5K
 
U

Uncooked

Banned
Parl said:
Somebody should photoshop something different onto that screen so we can have a special GAF notmyproblem.jpg



Yes, they are! It's going to be epic! Here's a meltdown score card...

1) GBA > PS3 (1 point, should be more but we should accept GBA's undying resistance)
2) PS3 below 100,000 (3 points)
3) PS3 below 90,000 (3 extra points)
4) Xbox 360 below 200,000 with the advent of Elite (3 points)
5) Xbox 360 below 175,000 (3 extra points)
6) PSP below 200,000 with full month of price drop (1 point)
7) Xbox 360 > Wii (10 points)

I think we're gonna get 14 points on the meltdown scale. What's others' opinions on what will and won't be epic?
Click to expand...

14 huh, so does that mean you think 1-6 will all occur? I can't see 360 selling under 200k, much less 175k. I say only 4 points (1 and 2) but still plenty of tears.
 
B

Barf_the_Mog

powerless or are they? o_O
My predictions:

[1] Nintendo DS - 445k
[2] Wii - 290k
[3] Xbox 360 - 195k
[4] PlayStation 2 - 194k
[5] PSP - 180k
[6] GameBoy Advance - 117k
[7] PlayStation 3 - 110k

Nintendo total - 852k
Sony total - 484k
Microsoft total - 195k
 
M

MasterMFauli

Banned
Uncooked said:
14 huh, so does that mean you think 1-6 will all occur? I can't see 360 selling under 200k, much less 175k. I say only 4 points (1 and 2) but still plenty of tears.
Click to expand...


Wait, why are people expecting PS3 to fall below 100.000?
 
L

laserbeam

Banned
for those who haven't seen its being reported out of Canada.


Nintendo gaming systems accounted for more than 63 per cent of total hardware sales. In the reporting period, the Wii accounted for one of every two console systems sold in Canada. In the portable hardware category, Nintendo captured more than 77 market share, driven primarily by the ongoing success of the Nintendo DS.

Nintendo’s momentum was bolstered by robust software sales, with first-party Nintendo titles capturing the top four spots. Recently released additions to Nintendo’s iconic Pokémon series - Pokemon Diamond Version DS ™ and Pokemon Pearl Version DS™ - led the pack at number one and number two respectively, followed by Wii Play™ and Super Paper Mario™ for Wii.
 
S

sonycowboy

Member
My predictions

HW
NDS 425k
WII 350k
PS2 225k
360 170k
PSP 150k
GBA 120k
PS3 85k
GCN 15k
Xbox 199

SW
1/2) Pokemon Diamond/Pearl (NDS)
3) Super Paper Mario (Wii)
4) Wii Play (Wii)
5) God of War 2 (PS2)
6) Spider-Man 3 (360)
7) Spider-Man 3 (PS2)
8) Guitar Hero 2 (360)
9) MLB '07: THE SHOW (PS2)
10) Ghost Recon AW 2 (360)
11) Diddy Kong Racing (NDS)
12) Motorstorm (PS3)
 
P

Parl

Member
MasterMFauli said:
Wait, why are people expecting PS3 to fall below 100.000?
Click to expand...

It was at 31,750 per week on average for February, then that went down to 26,000 per week for March. March had one more week AND Motorstorm, yet only managed 3k sales more. To reach 100,000, PS3 needs at least 25,000 per week for April.
 
E

Evlar

Banned
MasterMFauli said:
Wait, why are people expecting PS3 to fall below 100.000?
Click to expand...
Because if it sold at exactly the same rate as March PS3 would have 104k for April. We expect it to sell at a slower rate than that though, for a few reasons: Sparse software releases, April being a traditionally weak month for hardware, and the downward trend in PS3 sales month-to-month apparently not hitting bottom yet.
 
M

MasterMFauli

Banned
Cheebs said:
do you honestly need an answer to that?
Click to expand...

Erm, yeah.
For fun and gaf-entertainment, i always hope for something like that, but that´s just a fantasy. Why do people talk about it now as if it´s real? Wrong Matrix?
 
S

spwolf

Member
Parl said:
It was at 31,750 per week on average for February, then that went down to 26,000 per week for March. March had one more week AND Motorstorm, yet only managed 3k sales more. To reach 100,000, PS3 needs at least 25,000 per week for April.
Click to expand...

Feb and March had difference of 1 extra selling day

:lol
 
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