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PoliGAF Thread of First Debate Election 2008 - GAF doesn't know shit

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T

tanod

when is my burrito
Trakdown said:
The question is, have the debates been factored in to the polling yet? I don't think they fully have, but it would explain the 8 point lead. If they aren't, and it drops him down by monday, that means he has 6 days to get back above- one of those days is the VP debate.

If McCain drops down on monday, I wouldn't be surprised if it continues trending that way. He pissed off a lot of people with his tone during the debate, and Obama came out looking really damn good. McCain's campaign is in a hell of a slide, and since he's not changing much, he could easily keep trending down.
Click to expand...

My final thoughts on the debate and what I think will happen with voters:

Unless McCain can come up with an understandable reason why he never looked at Obama during that debate, I don't think he will ever have a chance to win back a big chunk of undecideds he lost. It may be a non-verbal gaffe but it's the kind that just sticks with you every time you think about him. It colors everything he says about his character and what his priorities are for America. McCain, the Honorable, on Friday became the true embodiment of his dishonorable campaign.

VP debate:
There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that the debate on Thursday is going to be an absolute disaster. See also: Dukakis. See also: Edwards.

People forget even though it was only a few years ago when Edwards went up against Cheney and got slaughtered and Edwards actually comes across as an intelligent guy and a pretty good politician normally. Getting owned ala Edwards is Palin's best case scenario.
 
RubxQub

RubxQub

φίλω ἐξεχέγλουτον καί ψευδολόγον οὖκ εἰπόν
What, am I not cool enough to be gone for extended periods of time and ask what's happened and expect a reasonable summary?!

Fuck'n A!
 
RubxQub

RubxQub

φίλω ἐξεχέγλουτον καί ψευδολόγον οὖκ εἰπόν
PhoenixDark said:
Go to some political sites Donnie
Click to expand...
Others never have to...but alas my PoliGAF power appears weak.
 
T

Trakdown

Member
Oh my god...

Muslim Children Gassed at Dayton Mosque After "Obsession" DVD Hits Ohio Hotlist

http://www.daytondailynews.com/n/content/oh/story/news/local/2008/09/27/ddn092608evacweb.html?cxtype=rss&cxsvc=7&cxcat=16
Somebody gassed a Mosque after that useless fucking DVD was released.

Dayton Daily News said:
"She told me that the gas was sprayed into the room where the babies and children were being kept while their mothers prayed together their Ramadan prayers. Panicked mothers ran for their babies, crying for their children so they could flee from the gas that was burning their eyes and throats and lungs. She grabbed her youngest in her arms and grabbed the hand of her other daughter, moving with the others to exit the building and the irritating substance there.
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F

Fragamemnon

Member
North Carolina folks will find this particularly eye-opening:

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/09/wake-county-statewide-races.html

wakecounty.gif


Wake County (Raleigh and Cary) is one of the many areas that Obama has really tried to muck with the suburban voters to help him in the general election. It's a variant form of the play that has worked in Virginia since 2005-flip the suburban voters by hammering pocketbook issues in your campaign, get the AA vote in huge numbers, and you are all the sudden competitive in a state that went +12 to the other guy last cycle.

To put into perspective how important Wake County is toward Obama's surprisingly strong standing in the state, consider this:

-There are, still five and a half weeks out from the election, about 75,000 more registered voters than there were in Wake County for the 2004 election.
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Note-a lot of these are college grads and transplants from out of state. People come to Wake County to work, there are a lot of good white collar jobs here.

-Even if no one else registered to vote in the county, and turnout as a percentage was not higher this year than in 2004 there would be 410,000 voters this time compared to about 360,000 last time.

-That means if the election was today Obama would take the county by roughly 70,000 votes. Given that Kerry lost it by around 7,000 that's a 77,000 vote gain for Obama in Wake County alone. That's 18% of the 435,000 vote margin George W. Bush took the state by last time right there.
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In other other heavily populated parts of the Triangle (Orange and Durham counties) Obama is going totally run up the score. These places are super-blue spots, and rich white liberals like me and African Americans will turn out in much greaternumbers compared to 2004. It's very possible that Obama can close the Kerry/Bush gap by 30-35% in the Triangle area alone.

Obama, according to PPP, is also polling about 12 points better than Bush did in the deep red rural congressional districts.

Really good news from NC. PPP will have a FL poll out later this week which will likely be very eye-opening-68% of voters said the economy is the #1 issue.
 
T

Tim-E

Member
W

WedgeX

Banned
Trakdown said:
It's a DVD that has footage of Muslims interweaved with Nazi footage to make them seem like evil fucks.
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I was forced to watch this in a class for my major back in February...

A piece of trash movie is a decent way to describe it...aside from fucking despicable.

Anywho, Obama got a Wings' jersey today so I think the entirety of western-Wayne county, and maybe part of Oakland, are obligated to vote for him instead of for McCain. Can't believe I missed the chance to go see him...I hope he comes back soon (during a weekend!).
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Fragamemnon said:
Really good news from NC. PPP will have a FL poll out later this week which will likely be very eye-opening-68% of voters said the economy is the #1 issue.
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This really is a remarkable strategy, given recent election strategies which saw the Democrat focus on their "strongholds" rather than challenge deep red districts as well. Bush carried NC by 12%, FFS, and Obama might well flip it. On that note, this was the most revealing bit from fivethirtyeight today:

There is almost no action at the state level today. Mason-Dixon has John McCain ahead by 16 points in Tennessee and 12 in Kentucky; SurveyUSA has Obama up 16 in Connecticut. Among these results, the only remotely interesting one is Kentucky, and then only because it suggests that Obama might be able to avoid a complete disaster in Southern Ohio.
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Obama can close the gap by preventing McCain from running up huge margins in deep red areas, just as well as by increasing registrations and turnout in traditional blue areas. Nate outlined a similar strategy in effect in Colorado and Nevada, as well.
Trakdown said:
Oh my god...

Muslim Children Gassed at Dayton Mosque After "Obsession" DVD Hits Ohio Hotlist

http://www.daytondailynews.com/n/content/oh/story/news/local/2008/09/27/ddn092608evacweb.html?cxtype=rss&cxsvc=7&cxcat=16
Somebody gassed a Mosque after that useless fucking DVD was released.
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Horrifying. Racist filth sent that shit out, and racist filth ate it up and responded. :\
 
RubxQub

RubxQub

φίλω ἐξεχέγλουτον καί ψευδολόγον οὖκ εἰπόν
Amir0x said:
Amir0x's PoliGAF Powers gain +10xp
Amir0x's PoliGAF Powers have leveled up!
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:lol Damn you.

I remain a simpleton for now. But I believe that GAF has a place for a moderately weighted white male with a funny GAFname! Only on GAF is my story even possible.
 
W

WedgeX

Banned
Oh, and some anecdotal evidence from my neighborhood (middle to upper class).

There exists a 3 to 1 ratio of Obama to McCain signs currently. In 2006, it was just slightly in favor of democrats in general. In 2004, it was slightly if not more so in favor of Bush (sign wise, at least).
 
R

ryutaro's mama

Member
Tim-E said:
I loved this Youtube comment on it:

"Only Barack Obama could make it seem like he made it rain on purpose."
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How in the blue hell does he get a pop from the crowd, in the rain, by declaring Biden the best dressed VP we've ever had?

Now THIS guy can cut a fucking promo.
 
M

Mgoblue201

Won't stop picking the right nation
McCain is gonna have a rough time if he continues his current strategies. It was a lot easier when he controlled the narratives and could spin Obama's image. A lot of that was dispelled, however, when people saw Obama during the debates. McCain sort of set himself up for this. A lot of his attacks were based on perception, which can change. A lot of his experience arguments aren't so well made that they'll save him if he looks bad compared to Obama. His foreign policies also scare the shit out of me. He came across as completely inflexible. That might work for the simple minded person who thinks that we can make war and extend our influence because fuck yeah America rocks, but I think that right now people are looking for a bit more nuance.
 
T

Trakdown

Member
ryutaro's mama said:
How in the blue hell does he get a pop from the crowd, in the rain, by declaring Biden the best dressed VP we've ever had?

Now THIS guy can cut a fucking promo.
Click to expand...

Obama got a huge round of applause once for excusing himself to blow his nose on stage.
 
R

ryutaro's mama

Member
Trakdown said:
Obama got a huge round of applause once for excusing himself to blow his nose on stage.
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He's definitely a Face getting a huge push.

He is over big time.

Now it's up to McCain and his valet to run a schmooz on him.

Title shot at ElectionMania November 4th on PPV.
 
T

Tobor

Member
GhaleonEB said:
Perfect. I knew she was using some of the same phrases, but I didn't realize it was word for word in parts. :lol
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My only regret is that Tina didn't break out of character and play the real clip. Holy shit. :lol

Good to see CNN picked up on it.
 
C

Chrono

Banned
Is this scenario possible: Candidate A is ahead of candidate B by 10 points in the polls, supporters of candidate A feel confidant and have a low turnout on election day because they think a win is guaranteed and the result is candidate B winning...

Kind of horrifying, though it also works in reverse... Those supporting candidate B can have a low turnout because their candidate is behind in the polls and his supporters think a loss is unavoidable so there's no need to bother with voting.
 
A

Agent Icebeezy

Welcome beautful toddler, Madison Elizabeth, to the horde!
Trakdown said:
Obama got a huge round of applause once for excusing himself to blow his nose on stage.
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I watched a speech where he said that he wasn't perfect and some elderly lady back and said that he was.

In all honestly, if the election were to be today and it ended like the map that Nate has 538, how will the two parties change? What I mean is that for the longest of times, people went for the same electoral map. The way it looks now, it's totally different and much in favor for the Democrats. My state of Indiana has a hint of blue today. I'm 28 years old and its like I'm in the Twilight Zone looking at that map. Which way with the Republicans go, try to come back towards the center? Lurch even further to the right? If Obama wins in this fashion, the GOP is going to have to do a lot of soul searching about where their party is going to go.
 
T

Trakdown

Member
adg1034 said:
That's beyond terrible, but where did you get the connection to "Obsession" from? I couldn't find it in any of their articles.
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http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/28/203016/697/536/613742

DK said:
On Friday, September 26, the end of a week in which thousands of copies of Obsession: Radical Islam's War Against the West -- the fear-mongering, anti-Muslim documentary being distributed by the millions in swing states via DVDs inserted in major newspapers and through the U.S. mail -- were distributed by mail in Ohio
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R

ryutaro's mama

Member
Agent Icebeezy said:
I watched a speech where he said that he wasn't perfect and some elderly lady back and said that he was.

In all honestly, if the election were to be today and it ended like the map that Nate has 538, how will the two parties change? What I mean is that for the longest of times, people went for the same electoral map. The way it looks now, it's totally different and much in favor for the Democrats. My state of Indiana has a hint of blue today. I'm 28 years old and its like I'm in the Twilight Zone looking at that map. Which way with the Republicans go, try to come back towards the center? Lurch even further to the right? If Obama wins in this fashion, the GOP is going to have to do a lot of soul searching about where their party is going to go.
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5 weeks to go.

Plenty of time for simple tricks and nonsense.
 
V

Verano

Reads Ace as Lace. May God have mercy on their soul
adg1034 said:
That's beyond terrible, but where did you get the connection to "Obsession" from? I couldn't find it in any of their articles.
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Well from an AP article, Aish HaTorah International, a jewish organization is linked to providing the DVD's in swing states. To be specific, the employees within the group are distributing the anti-muslim dvd's.

Here's the link:
AP: Jewish org. employees responsible

Note: Im not advocating any anti-semitic messages or use this article in any way to defame jews. And no I don't believe in the whole Jew conspiracy and Im not a Truther.
 
B

BotoxAgent

Member
Mgoblue201 said:
McCain is gonna have a rough time if he continues his current strategies. It was a lot easier when he controlled the narratives and could spin Obama's image. A lot of that was dispelled, however, when people saw Obama during the debates. McCain sort of set himself up for this. A lot of his attacks were based on perception, which can change. A lot of his experience arguments aren't so well made that they'll save him if he looks bad compared to Obama. His foreign policies also scare the shit out of me. He came across as completely inflexible. That might work for the simple minded person who thinks that we can make war and extend our influence because fuck yeah America rocks, but I think that right now people are looking for a bit more nuance.
Click to expand...

His inexperience argument in the debate might have worked if Obama came off as unknowledgable that night. But Obama didn't and was extremely thoughtful and intelligent. So McCain just looked like an idiot making those appeals when Obama's performance immediately contradicted him.
 
F

FIREBABY

Member
Fragamemnon said:
Great, great news.
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Poli-GAf has been so interesting these past few weeks. I've been lurking since the start and made the decision not to post until after the first debate. I'm neither left nor right, but the last couple of days have changed my mind tremendously. First it was the debates. Not much was said that hasn't been said before. Which only left you with how they debated each other. John was rude and bitter the entire time. Barrack was laid back and to passive but level headed and polite. Also if you can't show the person you're debating the common decency to simply look at them, then how the hell are you supposed to negotiate with foriegn powers? Then I went to Greensboro yesterday. No matter how many times you watch his speeches online, nothing, I mean nothing compares to being present at one of these rallies. It makes you feel like there is still hope for this country. In short, thanks Frag for the good news. I can truly say this is the first time I will be voting for anything. Sorry John, I used to like and respect you. But after the past few weeks and this week in particular. Its clear that you are not the right person for the job. OBAMA/BIDEN 08!
 
C

Cheebs

Member
Agent Icebeezy said:
I watched a speech where he said that he wasn't perfect and some elderly lady back and said that he was.

In all honestly, if the election were to be today and it ended like the map that Nate has 538, how will the two parties change? What I mean is that for the longest of times, people went for the same electoral map. The way it looks now, it's totally different and much in favor for the Democrats. My state of Indiana has a hint of blue today. I'm 28 years old and its like I'm in the Twilight Zone looking at that map. Which way with the Republicans go, try to come back towards the center? Lurch even further to the right? If Obama wins in this fashion, the GOP is going to have to do a lot of soul searching about where their party is going to go.
Click to expand...
2000 and 2004 have fooled you. The fact 2004 looked a lot like 2000 was rare. It is almost never like that. 2000 looked nothing like 92 and 96. And 88 looked nothing like 84. And 76 looked nothing like 1980...etc.

2004 is the first time in modern history the electoral map really remained roughly the same. It tends to change a lot.
 
R

ryutaro's mama

Member
Man, I would collapse if, in the event he wins, he returns to Iowa and begins his victory speech with:

"Finally, Ba-rack has come back to EYE-OOO-WAHHH!!!!"
 
S

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
Chrono said:
Is this scenario possible: Candidate A is ahead of candidate B by 10 points in the polls, supporters of candidate A feel confidant and have a low turnout on election day because they think a win is guaranteed and the result is candidate B winning...

Kind of horrifying, though it also works in reverse... Those supporting candidate B can have a low turnout because their candidate is behind in the polls and his supporters think a loss is unavoidable so there's no need to bother with voting.
Click to expand...

It might happen with less motivated voters, but that is what Obamas GOTV effort is about, its also why its a good thing Obama support is so enthusiastic, people like us who will vote no matter what. I mean, I live in Texas, he cant win here, but voting for him is going to put a big fucking smile on my face (I got to vote for him 4 times already thanks to being a state delegate!)
 
S

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
Agent Icebeezy said:
I watched a speech where he said that he wasn't perfect and some elderly lady back and said that he was.

In all honestly, if the election were to be today and it ended like the map that Nate has 538, how will the two parties change? What I mean is that for the longest of times, people went for the same electoral map. The way it looks now, it's totally different and much in favor for the Democrats. My state of Indiana has a hint of blue today. I'm 28 years old and its like I'm in the Twilight Zone looking at that map. Which way with the Republicans go, try to come back towards the center? Lurch even further to the right? If Obama wins in this fashion, the GOP is going to have to do a lot of soul searching about where their party is going to go.
Click to expand...

2 words: culture wars.
 
A

Agent Icebeezy

Welcome beautful toddler, Madison Elizabeth, to the horde!
ryutaro's mama said:
5 weeks to go.

Plenty of time for simple tricks and nonsense.
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I don't want to sound cocky, but I don't think so. I read this article on Forbes and I agree to this fully

http://www.forbes.com/opinions/2008/09/28/obama-mccain-debate-oped-cx_mc_0928cohen.html

But beyond Obama's positive identification with the country's economic challenges, the debate's focus on foreign policy worked particularly well in his favor. For several weeks now, McCain has sought to present his Democratic opponent as inexperienced and not ready to lead--much the same way that Carter tried to cast doubt on his GOP opponent. But McCain's attacks veered into occasional condescension and mean-spiritedness. He failed to make eye contact with Obama and his frequent admonition that he "did not understand" was gratuitous and even juvenile. As in 1980, when Carter tried to portray his opponent as an unstable, warmonger--and failed when voters saw Reagan speaking cogently on the major issues of the days--Obama's knowledge of the issues seemed more than adequate, whether one agreed or not.
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When railing on Obama, all that they could say was that he wasn't ready to lead. From the looks of it, this is how they are going to continue and it is going to fall on deaf ears. They shouldn't have built Obama up as a person who is clueless on foreign affairs. Barack Obama passed the mental commander in chief test last night in a lot of people's eyes.
 
E

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
Tobor said:
That's fucking disgusting, and I hope those bastards are caught and jailed. The real bitter joke here, is that this was a terror attack on US soil, and Homeland Security won't do jack about it.
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You can imagine that it would be all over CNN if it happened to non-Muslims.
 
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